Survey says...
75% game looks, as I suspected, playable with a 12-1 spread. Pen is king. Around $60-$65 an hour betting green. This is play all too, no wonging out. The results have to be tweaked downward a bit for the split 88s and AAs only. I'll see if I can do that later. I consistently got down a 16-1 spread in 2 deck with a good act so that combined with some judicious wonging out would considerably improve this. I even played a lot of 14-1 on one spot. Playing just one spot, if you think you can get away with it, would also bump your win rate up considerably.
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* S T A T I S T I C A L B L A C K J A C K A N A L Y Z E R *
* Version 5.51, 1995-2001 *
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Simulation started on (MM/DD/YY): 04-24-2009 at 11:44:12
Simulation finished on (MM/DD/YY): 04-24-2009 at 11:50:27
Random seed = 1234567890
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* R U L E S & C O N D I T I O N S *
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2 decks
Shufflepoint 78 cards, (75.00% penetration)
Face down game
3 players including the counter
Other players play: Basic Strategy
Counter's position: seat 3
System used is HALVES with indices table Halves
SBA truncates when calculating the true count
Remaining decks estimated exactly for true count conversion
SBA divides running count by the number of 1/2 decks remaining
American rules - hole card game
Surrender is not allowed
Dealer hits soft 17
Hard doubling is allowed only on hard 10,11
Soft doubling is not allowed
Doubling is not allowed after splitting
Hand can be split 1 times, up to 2 hands
No resplit of aces
Only one card to split aces
Different tens can be split
Insurance is 1 half of a bet
Predefined variables:
INSURANCE = 3 Buy insurance if true count >= INSURANCE
H7710 = 8 Hit 7,7 versus dealer's 10 if true count < H7710
No user defined variables
No leaving the shoe at any count
Betting units are: 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 4.0, 6.0
For corresponding AC: -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Num. of hands played: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
Player's bankroll is 100
Aim bankroll is 200
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* S I M U L A T I O N R E S U L T S *
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COUNT STATISTICS (PRIMARY):
TC PERCEN AC PERCEN ST. ERR. ADVANT ST. ERR. SDROUND ACTION
-3 18.4505 -3 18.45045 0.003879 -3.309 0.0251 1.0799 1.0815
-2 7.0566 -2 7.05663 0.002561 -1.772 0.0411 1.0926 1.0874
-1 9.2833 -1 9.28332 0.002902 -1.302 0.0360 1.0974 1.0901
0 34.7586 0 34.75856 0.004762 -0.663 0.0186 1.0995 1.0905
1 8.4830 1 8.48301 0.002786 0.152 0.0378 1.1007 1.0913
2 6.3522 2 6.35219 0.002439 0.633 0.0438 1.1034 1.0985
3 4.4928 3 4.49282 0.002071 1.142 0.0522 1.1075 1.1106
4 3.2361 4 3.23614 0.001770 1.703 0.0509 1.1103 1.1252
5 2.2458 5 2.24579 0.001482 2.420 0.0613 1.1133 1.1356
6 1.6286 6 1.62860 0.001266 2.990 0.0721 1.1155 1.1436
7 1.1247 7 1.12473 0.001055 3.637 0.0868 1.1165 1.1495
8 0.8525 8 0.85250 0.000919 4.231 0.0998 1.1172 1.1542
9 0.5723 9 0.57229 0.000754 5.039 0.1218 1.1175 1.1582
10 1.4630 10 1.46297 0.001201 7.020 0.0762 1.1172 1.1662
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PRIMARY STATISTICS:
Initial bet advantage: 1.47938%, St. Err. 0.016025%
Total bets advantage: 1.32135%
SCORE: 83.41
Risk of Ruin: 61.15%
Estim. payoff per 100,000 rounds played is 3391.32, with estim. std. 1174.27
Average st. dev. per round: 3.71337
Av. std. per round per unit: 1.64265
Average bet per round: 2.29239
Average bet total: 2.56656
Insurance contribution: 0.20013%
Insurance contrib. to TBA: 0.15663%
Number of sessions won: 81369
Number of sessions lost: 49133
Total number of sessions: 130502
Percentage of sessions won: 62.3508%, St. Err. 0.13412%
Surplus bank: 167817
Number of shoes played: 13631885
Number of rounds played: 100000002
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SECONDARY STATISTICS:
AC BLJACK PUSH HDOUBL SDOUBL SPLIT SURREN INSUR INSADV ACDIST
-3 3.501 8.978 6.338 0.000 1.674 0.000 0.000 0.000 16.319
-2 4.230 8.694 6.664 0.000 1.908 0.000 0.000 0.000 6.275
-1 4.451 8.665 6.888 0.000 1.947 0.000 0.000 0.000 8.276
0 4.778 8.595 6.864 0.000 1.997 0.000 0.012 -1.199 30.998
1 5.110 8.578 6.813 0.000 2.041 0.000 0.193 1.682 7.571
2 5.337 8.660 6.985 0.000 2.115 0.000 1.229 2.527 5.707
3 5.612 8.724 7.124 0.000 2.304 0.000 3.164 2.471 4.081
4 5.902 8.774 6.940 0.000 2.907 0.000 5.440 4.732 5.956
5 6.204 8.771 6.784 0.000 3.453 0.000 6.851 6.066 4.172
6 6.500 8.789 6.570 0.000 3.989 0.000 7.854 7.284 3.046
7 6.767 8.804 6.325 0.000 4.462 0.000 8.600 9.594 2.115
8 7.037 8.807 6.049 0.000 4.927 0.000 9.161 10.540 1.609
9 7.383 8.842 5.756 0.000 5.367 0.000 9.659 12.075 1.084
10 8.380 9.143 5.027 0.000 6.453 0.000 10.437 19.594 2.791
InsTC INSUR INSADV ST. ERR.
3 8.596 1.522 0.113
4 5.024 4.160 0.124
5 5.935 5.676 0.140
6 6.481 8.903 0.157
7 6.715 10.163 0.179
8 6.722 11.874 0.204
9 6.793 15.249 0.238
10 6.629 22.497 0.141
CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE:
Frequency of blackjack: 4.910%
Frequency of pushing: 8.655%
Frequency of hard doubling: 6.635%
Frequency of soft doubling: 0.000%
Frequency of splitting: 2.407%
Frequency of insurance: 1.669%
Insurance advantage: 9.409%
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS:
AC Correlation Coef.
-3 N/A
-2 N/A
-1 N/A
0 N/A
1 N/A
2 N/A
3 N/A
4 0.3903
5 0.3939
6 0.3974
7 0.4032
8 0.4058
9 0.4045
10 0.3997
D E A L E R'S S T A T I S T I C S
Up card 17 18 19 20 21 BJ Bust
2 13.0496 13.5418 13.2236 12.5819 12.0803 -- 35.5227
3 12.5591 13.2251 12.6285 12.3169 11.6649 -- 37.6055
4 12.3237 12.2183 12.2443 11.8173 11.4532 -- 39.9432
5 11.8102 12.3690 11.8262 11.0045 10.8071 -- 42.1831
6 11.5783 11.4816 11.5956 11.0224 10.6356 -- 43.6865
7 36.9171 13.8633 7.8389 7.9380 7.3732 -- 26.0695
8 12.9886 36.0092 12.9334 6.9168 6.9926 -- 24.1594
9 12.1457 11.2319 35.2494 12.1396 6.1303 -- 23.1030
10 11.3313 11.2531 11.3170 33.3932 3.5725 7.7587 21.3743
ace 5.6966 14.2994 14.2839 14.3735 6.5354 30.8747 13.9365
Distribution of the final number of cards in Dealer's hand:
Cards: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Freq.: 34.2034 43.8319 17.9221 3.5993 0.4134 0.0288 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000
Distribution of cards drawn to Dealer's initial two cards:
Card: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ace
Freq.: 7.5837 7.6110 7.6317 7.6560 7.6719 7.7267 7.7425 7.7348 30.9761 7.6656