Do Streaks Really Exist? Are They (at all) Predictable?

For starters, I know the correct response: Yes, they exist; No, they're not predictable. I've read in BJ Attack where Don S. railed against such thinking, saying in effect that such streaks are impossible to predict. For the most part, I can see his point.

But here's where I become a doubting Thomas: those times when the dealer is white hot and everybody sees it, and those who dare to challenge the dealer's luck - I hate to use that word on this board - get burned for their effort! You've seen it; we all have. Let's be honest here...don't most of us wait till the cards "cool off"? And isn't that the same as saying that streaks are sometimes -even if in the very short run - predictable?

A story will illustrate why I dare to ask such a question. I walked up to an elderly gentleman/dealer who kindly warned me against playing his table, saying in so many words that he was really hot. (The table had just emptied out although most of the others were nearly full.) I confidently sat down and placed a bet. Mentally I was thinking, "Sorry bud, I don't believe in predictable streaks. I'll beat you regardless!!!" Boy did I eat crow! Another sucker sat down and shared my dinner. We both emerged from the action punch-drunk and reeling! So I found another table and quietly watched the ploppies sit down and , several hands later, get back up. He was white hot.

So, do you see what I'm saying? I made a short term prediction, of sorts, of a streak and was correct. It just seems to my newbie mind that there are moments when you should find another table - something mathematical is going on in that deck that you do not want to be a part of. Could it be that there is a deeper mathematical underpinning that we just don't understand yet, like that of hurricanes and tornadoes?

I'm not trying to be grandiose, I just would love some feedback on this subject. Please understand...I'm not espousing this arguement; I'm simply trying to understand this concept and become a better blackjack player. Need some help, guys!

Let's be honest here...don't most of us wait till the cards "cool off"? And isn't that the same as saying that streaks are sometimes -even if in the very short run - predictable?

No, I don't wait for the cards to "cool off." If the game is good and the count is right, I keep on playing and betting the max if the count calls for it. Every good player I know does the same. Most of them like to see a table empty out due to a "hot" dealer. It gives them heads-up opportunities.

You guessed right once. That is meaningless. I can't count the number of times a dealer has told me to stay away, he's hot, and I've proceeded to book a win. If it is an honest game, you cannot predict the length of a "streak." You won't know until it's over. And it could be over with the very next hand. There is no deeper underlying math that can be used to predict any kind of streak in an honest game. To believe that is to subscribe to pure voodoo.

SD, DD, or shoe.

If it was SD or DD, there may be another reason.

cheers
bfb

No question about it...Lady luck does exist. When she visits & possess a dealer, he's a killer of APs. For example, even James Grosjean got beat by a lucky holecard flasher of $24,000...The kicker here is that James got a 3.48286% edge over the dealer. On the other hand, when she smiles at an AP, he can not do wrong...all the cards come his way at his wishes. For example, a well known AP (with the lady luck on his side at that time) was placed under a flat-bet restriction in a head-on game at MGM, he still won $36,000. Hmmm, I wonder why the pitcritter failed to accuse him of "card bending" (Hint: Grosjean vs Caesars)?

The lady luck is here to stay, but the only problem is...how do you predict the lady luck. To answer that question, I have spent 2 decades in "simming" & "cooking out" the formula. Sadly to report, I still find no magic formula to predict the lady luck. Luckily, based on the results of the sims, I have saved lots of dineros by NOT betting big money based on:

1) A dealer has lost 2, 3, 4, 5 6 or 7-hands-in-the-row.

2) A dealer frequently shows a "weak card" on top and makes his hand of 17's while players held 18 or better.

3) A dealer appears to be in a bad spot. Players pulls good cards while the dealer draws craps.

4) A dealer appears to break frequently when he shows small cards on top.

5) A dealer gets beat by a point or so frequently by players, i.e., D=17, 18 etc..while P=18, 19, 20, or 21.

6) A dealer gets the "monkey" frequently when hitting hard 12.

7) A dealer busts frequently on a pair of aces.

8) Wait, I need to look up my old programming notes... I'll be right back :-)

The bottom line is...I will share my winnings on a 50/50 basis when an Einstein "lends" me the formula to predict when & where the lady luck will pop up in favor of dealers or me. I kid you not.

Let's be honest here...don't most of us wait till the cards "cool off"?

No, the real winning players just fire up the big bets when the count calls for it. Guess what, I've had some of my biggest wins on these "cold" tables. Sometimes you get crushed, sometimes you win big, sometimes wins and losses offset. It's all randomness at work.

At single and double deck I try to limit my losses to any one dealer to limit my exposure to possible cheating. That said, if the game is good I'll just keep firing it up, usually the game swings back to me, but occasionally I just get buried...that's part of the game.

Sure there have been times where everything backfired but the best shoes I have ever experienced came when early on, the dealer killed everyone at the table. Making 5 or 6 card 21's, winning every hand, chasing every ploppy away as two things happened, they all left and the count skyrocketed. You look like an idiot to others if you just continue to lose and to the pit your are either a steamer or a card counter, but I love those opportunities to have had the ploppies eat many low cards and leave me heads up with the dealer. Win or not, every time I sit down at a table I am hoping for this situation.

I sat down to a DD game about one month ago. Bought in for $500, spreading $5-$40. Playing heads-up, first hand I won, and the RC was at +8 after that first round. For the entire rest of that shuffle, I was crushed. My $500 turned to $0 before the dealer ever had to shuffle again. I won no doubles. I hit no 21's. Whatever stiff I got always added a 10 if I hit, if not the dealer always had a 20 or 21.

Fortune turned around the next couple of days and my next $500 buy-in turned into $2500, before it happened again. I turned that $2500 into $800 before I could say "holy crap, batman..."

I always have to remind myself that the edge comes from the dealer having to break a stiff or my getting a snapper. But those two events are just as likely for the other player as well, and the cards can simply turn sour. And apparently, they can sometimes stay sour for a long time. I hope that doesn't continue on my upcoming trip to Vegas...

I know I'm gonna get one, every time I eat Wendy's chili. Sorry, been a long day.