discuss

so i went to my local casino once again and lost! thats right, lost once again following everybody's advice about counting, betting, etc. I just don't see how you guys can make any $ off of this..or a living at the most if any of you do. Here's my play analyzed: $10 minimum

true 1=even, minimum bet
true 2= $20
true 3=$30
true=4 $40
true 5= $50

its an 8 deck game with s17, das,doa, 75% pen.

Out of about 15+ shoes i played, i only saw one good count. and that count reached as high as about +3. I still lost. I did better when the count was negative! So what are you guys trying to say? I think all these numbers and formulas you guys do is just absolutely ridiculous! There is no difference between playing this way and progressing because i had more success in progressing. Im just trying to figure out what you guys or how all of you make $? I mean, I just can't win. And since Im an east coaster, there are only 4 places to go to. Turing stone in NY, AC in Jersey, Mohegan and fox woods in Conn. Do you guys make money from this? How much? What do you guys suggest I do? I know I am playing correctly but if you can't win then what is the point of this? I don't want to hear Im on a "losing streak" . When you guys say that, it means only one thing. It means you guys r compulsive gamblers and obviously u guys don't make much at this because all of you are still trying to find ways to win on this site. IMO, the only people making money from this is the people that sell their books telling the readers how they can beat the casino. You honestly think they would put a game in there thats beatable?

I understand counting and basic strategy. I been playing for almost 3 years. Here's what happens when the count gets high such as a +10.

Dealer is more likely to bust
More blackjacks
More high cards remaining
bet higher and take advantage of your "advantage"

That all sounds awesome. But you guys forgot one thing. The dealer can also get these cards, meaning that he also has an advantage. Just because the count is high doesn't mean the dealer isn't going to get all those 20's and blackjacks your counting on. Here's a prime example:

The True count is +10.

You get 20 dealer gets 17 you win. You win 50.
you get a blackjack with 50 up and you get 75.
the dealer gets 20 and you get 19. you lose 50. now you only have 75.
you get 8's against dealers 10. you split get 18's for both totaling 100. dealer has 19 you lose.

now your only up $25 in this scenario. Wow!

Is it really worth it? Suppose you play the next shoe and lose 5 in a row. that's 125 $. Not good. I got a better example...Say you have a 100 bill. I have a 1000 bill. Let's say that everytime you give me that 100 bill i will either give it back to you give you 1000 or 0. when you give me that 100 bill, you will either get 100, 0, or 1000. Can you really make $ from this? No! So I think whoever makes $ from this on here needs help. Casinos are in it for a business. Seems like alot of you are lucky on here. But as for a living, just how do you do that?

my point is for you guys to help me thats why i posted it. share some input suggest me some ways to play, etc.

should i even bother playing an 8 deck game because i never win at those. what kind of bet spread for a beginner player such as myself use? Im starting at a 10 minimum. 8 decks.

spiceyfish,

Ok... first of all, your spread is far too weak: a 1:5 spread on a play-all 8D game (assuming 8D, S17, DA2, DAS, with 4 players) with mediocre penetration (6/8 pen) is just barely above break-even. With an optimal spread (which yours is not... see below) CVCX says you've got a whopping 0.261% IBA, with a SCORE of 3.02 and an N0 of 331,180. Your win rate is $4.90/hr. A $16,500 BR will provide a RoR of 13.1%. The schedule for this is simple: bet $10 at TC<+1, $39 at TC=+1, and $50 at TC>+1.

Second, your bet schedule is far too passive for such a crappy game. Using your schedule I get an IBA of 0.071%, a WR of $0.89/hr, a SCORE of 0.27, and an N0 of 3,725,418. You would need a $33K BR to make the RoR 13.5%.

So, what can you do?

Best answer is find a better game... 8D with 75% pen is NEVER going to be good, unless the rules are fantastic (think 2:1 BJ, or at least full ES).

If you must play, how about wonging? Taking your $16,500 BR and playing only positive TC's, you can make $42.29/hr with a 1:5 spread and a 13.5% RoR. CVCX suggests spreading $70:$350 (min bet at +1, max bet at +6). You'll play just over 25% of the rounds. Even this, though, is not a good game: although the IBA is 1.402%, the SCORE is only 25.88 due to the high standard deviation.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

I'll discount your rants about progressions, book sellers, compulsive gamblers and a few other nonsensical things you wrote. I will agree that there are very few people in the world (and not just limited to theses boards) that can make a living playing BJ. I'm not saying it can't be done. I treat BJ as a profitable avocation and take advantage of comps. I just had a trip where I slowly built up a win in low positive counts and got killed in highly positive counts. That has happened many times. It's very frustrating but it's still gambling. I've played many, many years and am a long-term winner but I certainly haven't won enough to make even a meager living. Another point is that if you are really successful, chances are you have to travel to play, which adds to your costs and means you are away from your family, if you have one. I have been banned/identified in many places and I haven't even won that much, although admittedly my "act" is not very strong.
Now to my advice:
You need to widen your spread.
You can't play all.
IMHO, Foxwoods is the best place to play on the East Coast in terms of spread, comps (although they have goten worse in the last few years), and tolerance. I must say I have never played at TS.
If you did better with progressions, keep on doing that. Just come back after awhile and tell us when your bankroll os gone. Good luck.

Dog Hand and Revereman have provided sound advice. I'll suggest you consider this a recreational pursuit and occasionally travel to a destination with good games. For example at your stakes the SD games in Reno would be terrific. Pick up a copy of CBJN and look for other games closer to home.

A good general rule is 8D games are unbeatable if you play all and they are still quite unattractive unless you can bet black and that takes a six figure bankroll. I try and avoid them but if I play them I have to be very disciplined about when not to play. This is a difficult adaptation to make for a new AP; spending hours in casinos not playing to increase your odds.

I will rarely travel to a casino to play a 8D game. The EV just isn't there. Now if I'm passing by on other business I'll drop in and wong a few shoes and accumulate some EV but I doubt there are many APS that travel to casinos to play 8D games unless the pen is 1.0 or better, they play at the black chip level, or the rules are fantastic.

No one has forgotten anything. This is basic understanding of the game.
When the count is high the dealer is just as likely to get a high card/hand as the player but the player can stand on stiffs while the dealer has to hit their stiffs. Thus the advantage for the player. When the count is high the dealer is just as likely to get a blackjack as the player but the dealer gets paid even money while the player gets paid extra (3:2). Thus the advantage for the player. The player can bet that the dealer has a blackjack (insurance bet). That pays 2:1. The dealer cannot bet if the player has a blackjack. Thus the advantage for the player. The player can split pairs while the dealer cannot. Thus the advantage for the player. The dealer has one advantage. They get to act last. The player has the final advantage. They get to decide if they want to continue to play.

thanks guys, really appreciate this. Im just frustrated didn't mean any hard feelings. Well since I don't possess a big enough bankroll for 8D should I completely ignore it? I can wong in on them, but that's also a big bankroll to do as well.

spiceyfish,

Wonging the 8D game with a $10:$50 spread and this schedule will still give an ok game: zero at 0 and below, $10 at +1 and +2, $20 at +3, $30 at +4, $40 at +5, and $50 at +6 & up.

This gives an IBA of 1.435%, with a WR of $5.45/hr, a RoR (for a $2500 BR) of 9.6%, a SCORE of 25.53 (still not so good), and an N0 of 39,168. You'll play just over 25% of the rounds.

If you can play at only +2 and above, then you can bet $15 at +2, $30 at +3 & +4, $45 at +5, $60 at +6, and $75 at +7 and up. Now you'll have an IBA of 1.874%, a WR of $6.51/hr, a RoR of 13.9% (with a $2500 BR), a SCORE of 25.71, and an N0 of 38,891. You'll play 13.4% of the rounds.

While neither of these options is particularly attractive, either will help you learn the basics of casino play while playing a positive EV game. Then, when you take hockeydad's advice to go play a better game, you'll be better prepared.

Also, be sure you understand Thetahoescout's post: his comments describe something you need to know to be a successful card counter.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

I think your edge constantly increases up to +14 TC Hi-Lo at which point the edge begins to descend because of the tendency of both player and dealer to get dealt 20s. Of course, it's still an edge and true counts of +14 and higher are pretty rare. I don't remember if the overall edge actually begins to decrease or the ev rise per +1 TC tapers. I haven't had my sim software for years now or I'd run one to see the exact effect.

Let me suggest reading two articles by Arnold Snyder: "You Won't Win" and "Waiting For The Long Run".

Look at my post further down on the board where you posted on 6 Nov. and look at my post of of 28 Nov. 2:04 am and let me know how you learned to play blackjack. Did you learn it on your own or did you learn it from someone and in that case, who?
In addition, if you haven't seen my post of 27 Nov., read that also
Robbie