Did I read it right?

After a long absence, i was perusing these boards last week. I read something that perplexed me. Today I tried ,but, could not locate the post nor the thread, but I am sure about what I read.

Someone had mentioned that at High +TCs, we all bet high because the chance of wins are better (Better chances of Black Jack and higher chances dealer busting after hitting , etc.)

I remember reading a responder had challenged and said (with a hyper link of data showing millions of hands)that PLAYER'S CHANCE OF WINNING OR LOSING A HAND IS THE SAME IN A HIGHER COUNT.

Since then I have been thinking about it and I am perplexed. Don't we wong and wait for a higher true count so much so our chances of winning are higher at big true counts?
Don't we use the betspread that we bet (1-6, 1-12 or so) at a higher true count to win big?
If the probability of winning is not higher with true counts, then why count at all?

Did I read right?

> Don't we wong and wait for a higher true count so much so our chances of winning are higher at big true counts?

No.

> Don't we use the betspread that we bet (1-6, 1-12 or so) at a higher true count to win big?

Yes.

> If the probability of winning is not higher with true counts, then why count at all?

The objective is not to win more hands - the objective is to win more money. Blackjack is not entirely even-money payoffs, so the two are not necessarily the same. Get it? A full explanation can be found in just about any reputable book on card counting.

in high true counts your double downs will catch the 10 more frequently and the dealer will be more likely to bust his 6up. (although he will have a stiff as an upcard less frequently).

1) Doubling a hand counts as one win, but you win twice as much as usual. This happens more frequently in a high count.

2) Getting a natural counts as one win, but you get paid 3 to 2. Snappers happen more frequently in a high count.

3) Winning an insurance bet doesn't count as a win at all, but you save an important loss - one of your big bets. Insurance is taken in high counts.

You can lose the majority of hands you play in a high count, and still win money through bet variation and the rules of the game.

Thanks for the answers. I understand, I think.....

Here is scenario and a question or two.

Let's assume the true count is high,say +3.5

The hand is dealt.

a. I don't get a natural (i.e.)black Jack.

b. My hand is such that it is not right for doubling down (by basic strategy)

c. The dealer's face card is not an Ace.

Under these conditions, all my "better odds of of winning more money or losing less money" are not there.

So, if the above conditions are true,then I don't have any additional advantage in having bet high, right?

Then, it also means, when I bet big at a high TC, I should also hope and pray for one of the above conditons to be true, right?

(Everybody knows that when you hope and pray you can get what you want)

Question 2:

If i change the condition " b," above,
and assume I get a soft 15, 16 or 17 and the dealer's face card is 4 or 5 or 6, and I doble down,
then the odds of my doubling down winning is less (in a high positive TC) as I am more likely to get a ten or an Ace. right?

You can take the logic to extremes. Say an event happens .2% of the time. If you can get 1000-1 on that proposition its a very good bet-but you lose 99.8% of the time!

The hand is dealt.

a. I don't get a natural (i.e.)black Jack.

b. My hand is such that it is not right for doubling down (by basic strategy)

c. The dealer's face card is not an Ace.

Under these conditions, all my "better odds of of winning more money or losing less money" are not there.

So, if the above conditions are true,then I don't have any additional advantage in having bet high, right?

You did have an advantage. You may not any more. But naturally you can't use this information for betting purposes. If you knew the next card was an ace and you had 20 you'd double down-the only problem is you don't know. You can't make any decision on the basis of information you don't have yet.

but not significantly, meaning it's impractical to take advantage of. You should visit bjstats.com and try some charts.

Dave

Of course your win percentage is higher in high counts... dealer had to hit 16, etc. etc. etc.

Of course it doesn't affect your win percentage OVERALL but only during the count

Of course you sometimes loose your ass during high counts. And more often during low counts.

Don't think too much and don't believe everything you read on the free board.