Crazy surrender?

Could someone please tell me why I shouldn�t surrender 15 vs. ace, but vs. 10. Shouldn�t I be more inclined to hit (No! I know that, but why?) if the dealer showes a card that would bust my hand if I would get it, than if he shows an ace that wouldn�t help me but wouldn�t bust me neither. Am I not worse of if the dealer snags a card that can�t hurt me than if he got a 10 that can no longer end up in my hand for a bust. I feel that there is more reason to surrender vs ace since there is one more bust card left. (Not that it matters anyway because I still do as the charts tell me, but I would like to have this thing sorted out)

Thank you for taking you�re self the time to read this post!

Chappis

with a 10 showing, there are 7 cards that will give the dealer a pat 17 or better (7,8,9,T,J,Q,K). With an ace showing, there are only 3 (7,8,9...assuming they'll hit soft 17).

--E.Diddy

That asumes early surrender right?

But if the dealer doesn�t reach a pat hand than he draws again, he cant bust since so far he is only "soft", so is�nt there more cards than 7 that make him pat with an ace up?

Chappis

Could someone please tell me why I shouldn�t surrender 15 vs. ace, but vs. 10. Shouldn�t I be more inclined to hit (No! I know that, but why?) if the dealer showes a card that would bust my hand if I would get it, than if he shows an ace that wouldn�t help me but wouldn�t bust me neither. Am I not worse of if the dealer snags a card that can�t hurt me than if he got a 10 that can no longer end up in my hand for a bust. I feel that there is more reason to surrender vs ace since there is one more bust card left. (Not that it matters anyway because I still do as the charts tell me, but I would like to have this thing sorted out)

According to Cacarulo's charts posted on www.bjmath.com, here is the expected value of hitting 15vA and 15v10. It is correct to surrender if the ev is less than -0.50.

 

        A          10 

T,5: -0.48293   -0.50391 

9,6: -0.4825    -0.50535 

8,7: -0.47609   -0.49976 

 

If they do hit Soft 17, BS is to surrender. You hit in S17 games.

We know that House doe not have BJ. With a 10 up, there are 12 other possible hole cards it could have. Of them 4 give the House 20, about a 33% chance. 20 is VERY hard to beat, Even you draw a 18 or 19, you still lose to a 20.

With a Ace up there are 9 cards remaining. Only 1 one of these gives the house a 20, that is an 11%. You have a much better chance to draw out when facing an Ace.