Could this work?

Or what would need to be done to turn this into a positive expectation game?

Lets say there was a team, playing a $5 table, 6 or 8 decks, with regular rules, Double after split, Double any two cards, etc. (nothing out of the ordinary.

One player plays $5 per hand every hand, but counts.

The other player plays a negative progression (or a positive progression) religiously, through high and low counts, and reallt steps up the action during very favorable conditions. (It could appear as though the bets were raised out of frustration or a feeling when actually it would be because of a favorable count).

Is there any possibility some variation of this could work in real world play, and if so, please post your thoughts? I am interested to hear where this goes, and hopefully the fact I am mentioning a progression does not dominate this discussion.

Thanks.

First off, the flat bettor has to up his bet during positive counts, even just a 1:3 spread would lower his negative EV. However, it appears this guy is still playing at a negative edge, and the other player would have to compensate for this as well.

I think the other player, if he uses a progression, would be better off to use the positive progression as opposed to a negative. Neither will defeat the house edge, but the positive progression won't eat up as much BR on a bad streak. He should flat bet the minimum when the count is bad, and stop any progression when the count turns toward a bad count. He can resume the progression as soon as the count is again positive.

You have to be losing as little as possible when the count is bad, and for that, both players should be at the minimum. I still dont think you are going to get a positive edge at this type of play but it should be quite entertaining at the least. Just hope for a good variation to swing things your way.

Finally get some firm quitting limits for each session. I see too many non-counters lose each night despite being ahead at some point in the game. Get realistic on your winning expectation. I would shoot for 20% or lower increase in bankroll. For example, a $1000 BR with a 20% gain is a $200 win for the night. I would play the same bank until you have a net gain of 10 winning sessions, essentially tripling your bankroll. You could then do like a true positive progressionist and up your session BR to $1500, and play with a slightly higher unit bet. Keep doing this until you have enough BR to be satisfied with a 5% win.

Keep in mind, you still dont have an edge, but this should keep you entertained, which is the only other realistic goal if you don't have an edge.

get rid of the flat bettor, if you are using him for counting purposes, have him stand over your shoulder instead. He's costing the team money. If there is 75 hands of play per hour and his avg bet is 6 dollars ( because of dd, spl, etc) then it is costing around 25 to 35 dollars per hour. As for the progressionist, only play during positive counts.

As you can see, I have been having some fun toying around with this idea. I think I've got something which may work.

The flat bettor is the only one who always stays in the game, the progressionist only shows up to play the positive hands. The flat bettor could use a 2 way device such as a Nextel radio (muted) to notify the progressionist that the count is positive and to get rid of him when the count goes bad.

Naturally, the action of the progressionist must compensate for the negative edge of the flat bettor. I would suggest if the flat bettor is playing a $5 limit, that the progressionist's minimum bet should be $25 to $50. He can walk up to the table and play the positive progression (presuming that he will have a win streak). He leaves when the count turns no matter where in the progression he is. He can't play any hand with a negative expectation.

He should be very open about "how wonderful his progression works" and have nearly every bad habit that a counter hates. i.e., holding up the game cause he's staring at a cocktail waitresses backside. Distractions a counter would never inflict upon himself. The flat bettor should appear slightly annoyed about how the new player is "messing up the flow of the cards" and other superstitions. Good luck and hope you find something that works.

I say so far, because I am not sure you are done yet. You see no way the progression guy can play every hand, except maybe back out when the count gets to a certain negative point, and jump bets dramatically on high positive counts and still have an advantage? Thats the type of play I was kind of hoping for. Otherwise, its almost like straight up team play. I like playing progressions and have been successful up to this point. I am trying to find a way to maybe juice it up a little.

Again, thanks for your useful input and advice. I am sure others will get involved, but your advice seems very valid from my point of view.

because I do all the "distractions a counter would never inflict upon himself", including "staring at a cocktail waitresses backside". Or, maybe its part of the act!

perhaps that didn't word out quite right. My point being to take the level of concentration down from die-hard counter to hapless ploppy with a run of good luck. I've always noticed that the quietest ones at the table who are very anti-social are most watched, whereas the "obnoxious tourist" isn't always figured to have an advantage.

Oh, and to ACE, I just can't see how, without card counting and the corresponding bet management, how a progressionist can turn an advantage playing negative EV hands without drawing attention to himself. Ramping up 10 units "on a hunch" to compensate for negative EV is going to get everyone's attention.

Ace, it sounds to me like you have an understanding of the fact that counting can turn an advantage. Why not play on it? Even if you don't use a full counting method, you know you can limit losses by not playing -EV hands. Don't let your desire for action take priority for your desire to make money. I Wong out on any negative -EV. Why? Because I don't expect to make money on that hand. I would love to have a full night's action, but I don't like games that work against me - I have better things to do with my money. If you never play a negative EV hand of BJ, you can expect a long-term gain, even flat betting with BS.

Ok

The team idea "very good". Having people do different things "very good". Progressions involved at all "acceptable but completely unnecessary". Having nobody standing around backcounting "great".

I think to make it work it would start to look like other various forms of team play that already exist.

Lots of shoe games in very little space are great for this concept but there are few places that still offer "shoe clusters".

A solo version of your system is probably most effective in todays blackjack world. I play shoes and overbet the smaller edges and use extreme postive progressions in those enormously profitable back half of shoe situations.

Very interesting concept, but about teams, it seems most affective to have players all over the place and no more than one big player at a time unless the situation arises where you both have the reputation of large action, which is possible if you are both yanked into a great situation early on at that particular casino.

I think there is some merit to your proposed system but take these suggestions if you don't want to get tagged. The progression is not as important as it may seem, different people in different places is better than a bunch of people at one table all the time.

Cutter

I love it! Especially in situations that just somehow turn out to be plus counts, and only with a count system that is NOT Hi-Lo, KO, or other counting system that is recognized by software currently available to surveillance!

AB

It is a huge wack to any expectation the team might have to have him progressing during negative EV situations.

However if he is not present and he appears during good shoes and progresses that is a different story. After a few minutes the pit will start to comp him after seeing his progressive nature. Then the team can play at ease.

I guess progressing would be good if it didn't eat up all the EV and if you only drag the progressor into good situations that would be just nifty.

Cutter

cant count at my home casino (bad pen, unfavorable rules, etc)
so i use a progression to get a few hundred/session about 4 times a week...

HOWEVER...when i get out of state into casinos with great rules, and pen (normally 1 deck off 8), i count with a progression....

on higher counts its actually very interesting to see how well progressions work...

quite often that juicy DD or BJ will be on a very large bet...

however, if i notice the count going down, i will leave the table if im quite a bit ahead (nost of the time)...

quit the game while your ahead, go have a drink, start again...

the good thing is a progression gets the casino off your back a bit, show some emotion, say how youll buy that motorbike or you might quit your day job....

just act like a ploppy and talk about opening/closing boxs, the flow of cards, etc...

works for me at the moment, dont get any more pit attention that any other 'lucky' player....

that said, winning those big BJ's and DD's that normally only a progression will give you is great....builds a buffer and really makes a difference to winnings...

being in a game during a high count and having a decent run while using a progression nearly always have a much higher win rate/session that the falt bettor playing every hand...

i also bring friends and gf's along....something counters do not like to have around them :)