Could someone help?

Could someone run the simulation for me?

Rule : 6D, H17, DOA, DAS, 80% pen.
Count : Knock-Out
Spread: 1-12, max bet at K-O count +4 or more,
betting ramp according to K-O book.
Players: Solo, no other player at table.

Compare the following two cases:
(1) Always stand A,8 vs 5 or 6;
(2) Always double A,8 vs 5 or 6.

Which one has higher EV, Case (1) or Case (2)?
If (2) is higher, I will include it as part of
my cover play.

Thanks a lot,

TJ

I think that is the more important question. As a point of reference, for a typical 6D S17 game , a 1-12 spread is considered acceptable while most people I've talked to use a 1-16 or 1-20 spread to make the game worthwhile. Additionally, the BS for a 6D H17 game is to stand on A8 vs 5, but double down A8 vs 6.

Unless your objective is to gain experience at (or wong) this 6D H17 game, then I wouldn't advise it.

I haven't run the sim, but my first thought is cover play should by situated such that the non-BS move will be correct in high counts. (e.g. always taking even money).

I don't particularly feel that this cover play will gain you much in the way of cover though. Doubling a soft 19 isn't a common ploppy move.

For what its worth.

Obviously my cover play suits your criteria:
Doubling soft 19 vs 5 or 6 is wrong at low count, but correct at high count.

Agreed, but I don't think the pit crew will think you are a bone-head ploppy if you always double.

The taking insurance bit is classic, you can yell out "even money, I always take even money!" hehe.

If I don't see a handful of ploppies doubling soft 19, I won't do it myself. Thanks for the suggestion.

6D, H17 is a bad game; I'm having a tough time comprehending why you would want to play such a bad game, especially with a small bet spread. There are much better games in North California but you have to look hard to find them. I'll give you a clue, in Cache Creek, two tables had the BJ side bet (that side bet is highly beatable at the right TC). Also, there is SD, S17 but it is D9.

Good luck and stop wasting your on horrible games.

I'm not saying to not double on soft 19. You definently should, it adds to your EV. What I'm saying is that using that play as cover doesn't really work.

A play like always standing on a 12 v. 3, is okay because most ploppies will stay on that anyway. Yet as the count goes up, that is the correct play.

The goal is to look as much like a ploppy as you can.

Good Luck

Is it really possible to get away with a bet spread like that? Seems like even with good cover that pit personnel would catch on to this pretty quick.