Free Forum - cost of error

island player

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Jul 3, 2008, 9:30:12 AM

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cost of error

When making decisions on basic, what is the cost of an error? For example on most expected return spread sheets a 9,3 Vs 2 shows a expected loss of -0.291 if you stand and -0.255 if you hit on a six deck shoe. Does that mean it will cost me $2.91 on a $10.00 bet if I stand and $2.55 if I hit? In other words would the error cost me .36 cents for every $10.00 I have bet?

Don Schlesinger

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Jul 3, 2008, 9:59:28 AM

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Short answer

Yes. :-)

By the way, answers to questions like these can be found in Tables 7.2 and 7.3 of BJA3, pp. 98-99.

The way you've posed the question, you're asking for the conditional penalty, which is what you'd lose, given that the hand is already sitting in front of you. Of course, this is very different from the absolute penalty, where you'd be asking, for example, "What will it cost me, on average, per hour, if I flat-bet $10 a hand and I decide to always stand on 12 v. 2 instead of hit?" Here, the frequency of ever getting that particular holding (maybe three times every four hours) comes into play, and so, in this case, you'd find that deciding to do that all the time would cost you only about 30 cents or so.

Clear?

Don

island player

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Jul 3, 2008, 10:14:29 AM

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error

Yes, thank you.

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cost of error