re: Correlation too weak
> between results of successive hands to have an impact greater than
> rules or number of decks. I seriously doubt it makes any measurable
> net difference on expectation for CSMs.
It's not the "results of successive hands," but the *reason* those results occur.
Once in a while, situations will occur when a significantly disproportionate number of low cards will be grouped toward the bottom of the shoe, meaning that a significantly disproportionate number of high cards will be grouped toward the top of the shoe.
As the "good" cards are used, they are randomly inserted in the undealt portion. Since random distribution will, on average, be even distribution, this means the "good" top portion of the shoe will get (proportionatly) as many of those "good" cards as will the "bad" bottom portion, meaning that the top of the shoe will remain equally "good," but the "bad" bottom portion will both (a) be made less "bad," and (b) be increased in size, which in turn means that the "good" top portion will be decreased in size by a like amount.
Thus, in this situation, what might be called a "hot streak" will be dramatically lengthened.
The same is true the other way around, giving a result that a "cold streak" will also be dramatically lengthened.
Add to this the fact that "cold streaks" drive players away from the table. This dramatic reduction in the number of cards that are being moved equally dramatically increases the amount of chronological time the "cold streak" lasts, explaining why those tables sit empty or virtually empty so much of the time.
This also increases the amount of time it takes for favorable situations to build; so these relatively rare events become even more rare -- not from the standpoint of the number of cards being moved, but on a strictly chronologial basis.
BUT, rare as they are, these favorable sequences DO occur. And they are SO favorable that if you're lucky enough to observe one in progress, it's very much to your advantage to jump in and stay in as long as it lasts.
As for the "trick" in counting these games, if you want it you'll have to put your email address in your reply, if any, to this post; so I can send it to you. I would also like to have your undertaking that you will keep it confidential, as I don't think it prudent to broadcast this information too widely.