one can simulate getting hit by a truck. Of course you don�t really need to do that in order to know that it would hurt. With regards to playing blackjack, things are less clear.
The Casino's themselves base their potential for winning on the laws of probability...Sure, the silly bettor will lose anyway, but the Casino's response must be---I don't care how smart you are, in the long run with the L of P on our side, we will win...In this regard, and because of card counting, the game of blackjack makes the casino more vulnerable then any other game.
Half of a man's sperm carries an x chromosome and the other half carries a y, which determines whether you are a male or female...You can find families with 6 females and no males, but when you put 6 billion people on the face of the earth, it works out to almost 50-50...If the laws of probability are good enough for our Creator, they should be good enough for us also.
"...If the laws of probability are good enough for our Creator, . . ."
Well then, according to Frank, our Creator must have a "closed mind." This will be followed by, "Garbage in, garbage out," or some similar tired, hackneyed cliche. Finish off with an anecdote about something that happpened 40 years ago that is totally irrelevant and off-topic.
To Frank: Please don't take this personally. It just concerns me that someone who doesn't know any better might actually take your ravings seriously. After all, we play this game with real money.
Walt- I am with you, and there is one thing
that keeps coming more clearly. The long
term play theory is Crap. Play the cards that
you draw NOW for there may be no tomorrow. And you can't simulate getting hit by a truck-BUT I CAN
VOUCH FOR THE REAL THING!
ONCE- Feb 22 l963 a Kenworth cab-over did $ 286 worth
of damage to my $ 286 pontiac purchased in a La.
sherrif's sale. Turned the car 270 degrees and 19 feet
back down the road. I walked away on IH-35.
"The Casino's themselves base their potential for winning on the laws of probability...Sure, the silly bettor will lose anyway, but the Casino's response must be---I don't care how smart you are, in the long run with the L of P on our side, we will win...In this regard, and because of card counting, the game of blackjack makes the casino more vulnerable then any other game."
Steve, IMO the casino edge is not to do with the long run. I consider it only has to do with a run that is a run of one, which is the shortest run of all. Take roulette. If the casino paid 38 to 1, roulette would not be a gambling game.
As to the long run, a gambler could be, after 20 years, so close to the mean that he staggers with astonishment. But in those 20 years his action will run into the millions. 0.5% of a million is a tidy sum. And if he ends on the negative side of the mean he will have lost a decent sum, the inverse being true if he ends on the positive side. (Would the casinos put their faith in "the long run" if greater than 0.5% of casino gamblers were card counters?). For in reality probability allows for the casinos also to end on the negative side of expectation. Surely this point can be conceded in theory! The house edge is there to stop casinos being wiped out in the short term. But even that does not always work. A gambler can send a casino bust due to deviation, as happened to the Darwin Casino.
The best chance you have is to put your million on one bet during a high count. If you lose, you still have the rest of your life to start again. If you win you are a multi-millionaire. If you play only for the long run you might, perhaps, end up with a few pickings. The casinos are probably more afraid of short term gambling.
Lastly, I would say that the casinos "base" their potential for winning on historical factors, that is, almost without fail, casinos turn a healthy profit. If I were to buy a business I would not care what made the money, I would only care about past performance.
note to post busters: "pooning" is where someone on roller blades hangs of a motor vehicle (usually a truck) to get a free ride.
"For in reality probability allows for the casinos also to end on the negative side of expectation."
Check out any of the figures in Stanford Wong's tables...It is almost unbelievable how they can be determined right down to 3 decimal points if you use millions of simulations. In reality, the Casino's can certainly end up on the negative side in the short run but not in the long run.
If you continue to place little or no value in decisions which are based on the laws of probability, the probability of your imminent economic failure at gambling will approach 100%. I would suggest that you take another look at this situation, but of course it is entirely up to you.
If you continue to place little or no value in decisions which are based on the laws of probability, the probability of your imminent economic failure at gambling will approach 100%.
I can live with that! Steve, I do not offer odds to a casino - they offer them to me. The true odds (not the mathematical odds) are always in the player's favour: he can stand, the dealer must draw to 17; he can leave the premises, the casino must bring in a new shift. Remember, the casino does not play with a full deck!
If this game was totally even, when you busted, they would put your money on top of your cards and if they busted also, it would be a push...This rule in the Casino's favor more than offsets all of the rules and options that you list in favor of the player.
While it is important for you to have a positive attitude, it should not be constructed on the false impression that the Casino personnel are playing with less than a full deck...Some of them may be, but make no mistake about it, they have enough money to hire intelligent people.
Whether you are prepared to admit it or not, you are using the laws of probability in your playing decisions...When was the last time that you drew a card to a hard total of 20?...Your odds are 1/13 to improve your hand...The dealers reach a total of 21 about 11% of the time so why would any sane person draw to a hard 20...
But when another decision is not so easily seen to be the right one from a mathematical standpoint,[drawing to a soft 18 against the dealers 10]; when the mathematical calculations show a difference of 1% in favor of one choice rather than the other, you feel that they are not appropriate.
I am trying my best not to be sarcastic, but I urge you to take another look at the deck that you are playing with.
Hey Parker-I know that Julian Braun passed
away, but how did that make you GAWD?
Roma Downey spelling(Respect for the almighty)
who incidently seems to get along reasonably
well with bead swinging Irishmen like John
" but how did that make you GAWD?"
I'm not the one who continues to espouse a playing style contrary to virtually everything discovered about the game in the last 40 years.
I'm not the one who continues to insist that I am right and every respected authority on blackjack is wrong.
And I'm certainly not the one who suggested that this board owes John Patrick an apology.
Since you have demonstrated a complete and total ignorance of the principles of the game, I have tried to simply ignore your ravings.
However, I was concerned that someone new to the game might actually take you seriously.
Fortunately, even the newbies are demonstrating a pretty good ability to recognize bs when they see it.
And I am not referring to basic strategy.
Parker- I understend"Mechanical Flaw" and that no math
or no theory can fix it. What you call"Standard
Flucuation" is a euphanism for-I am losing and I refuse to accept the reason why, but I will bet 500 because
the count is sky high. (YUCK) At Duke, the math, physics, and engineering majors could always get into
a ruckus over stuff like this. I hope you get into a run of losing EVERY big bet-Why?- I would like to know
how much money you will lose before you understand
Get a single deck of cards-Take the cards that you don't count in your system out of the deck-set them aside. Now is the remaining deck rich or poor? If you really believe your system you shuold say it is neutral
because the uncounted cards don't MEAN anything.
Lay out thre remaining deck and you will find that
face to small is less than 2-1- That's called a rich
deck-and you should be able to understand MECHANICAL
FLAW. The shoe can be much richer or poorer than your
count tells you.
Not only do I not have the slightest idea what you are talking about - neither do you.
I use a level 2 unbalanced count that has a very good playing efficiency, betting correlation and insurance correlation.
I really think you need to read a few books on card counting. You lack of understanding of the mathmatics behind the game is so complete and total, I really don't know where to begin. Nor do I have the time.
A math class or two wouldn't hurt, either.
Even at your age. :-)
MAH goodness, if you absolutely don't know
what I am talkin' bout you haven't read
a single one of STANFORD WONG'S books tch tch!
The system you mentioned sounds closer to what I use
At least I have read some of his books, and
dear old DUKE gave me all the math I will ever
need, But they all lied about DENSITY ALTITUDE.
...it is important for you to have a positive attitude, it should not be constructed on the false impression that the Casino personnel are playing with less than a full deck...
so where is this bj game where they deal out all the cards? come on, spill the beans...
If you continue to place little or no value in decisions which are based on the laws of probability, the probability of your imminent economic failure at gambling will approach 100%. -------So if I go to whorehouse and choose woman because of colour hair I will get rocks of better than if i choose woman like in pin tail on donkey. You are donkey. If I go to cashino I bet randonly my ekspectation is a randon result not failure hundred cent failure. You are silly donkey.