Can someone calculate my ROR ?

I plan on taking $400 to a casino and wonging tables. Can someone calculate my chance of going broke if only enter when the true count is +1 or greater and I use a 50 chip bet and maybe 75 bet when the true count is +2 or greater? (using Hi-Lo )

I would estimate it's at least 50 %. I'm okay with that, though.

What if I only entered when true count was +2 or greater? would that improve my chances of making money? I'll quit if I double the money.

...With your bankroll and the size of your bets counting and Wonging are meaningless. You are just gambling. The major factor to your success is "Lady Luck", and she can be fickle woman.

Suggest you read all the information on the sidebar to the left of this screen and adjust your plan of attack accordingly.

Jay Cobbson

For what its worth the 1st time i played BJ after learning BS and counting proficiently I ventured to Vegas just out of excitement and a good time. I took $500 and back counted the entire time with a spread of $15-$50. I only played good games i had picked out prior to my arrival and never played on a neg count. I felt like i had the advantage most of the time and brought home $500 profit? Call it lady luck or whatever, it was a blast????

Gss,

Since you didn't give all the conditions, I assumed the game in question is 6D, S17, DAS, 75% pen with 4 players. Other combinations will of course give slightly different results.

If you flatbet $50 at +1 & up, you'll make $15.04/hr with a RoR of 87.8% for your $400 BR. You'll play 27.3% of the rounds you observe.

If instead you wait to enter at +2, you'll make $12.99/hr, play 16.1% of the rounds, and have a RoR of 82.7%.

In fact, if you want to play to a RoR of about 50%, you can either wong in at +1 and flatbet $10 (52.2% RoR), or wait until +2 to wong in and flatbet $14 (50.8% RoR).

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

sounds like you did have the advantage all the time.

Thanks Doghand. I didn't realize it was that high. Maybe a $25 flat bet and leave if I made $200 - $250 would be better. That's probably about 50 - 70 % ROR.

Either bet it all on one hand of BJ, Baccarat, or craps and quit or don't bother, just use the money for a nice dinner or something you enjoy.

Why quit if you double your money? That's not what an advantage player would do. While your initial bankroll is miniscule the concept is known as a "replenishable bankroll". Keep taking shots with a small bankroll. If you go broke work until you build some money up and try again. Keep trying and eventually you'll go on a prolonged upswing and at that point sound money management techniques come into play.