Bushido, some thoughts on the 678 box

Thx again for the link. I've given it some thought. I DO think Tarzan is on to something.

1) I see what he means about the key card view. 13 vs 3 is a good example. You want to grab one of those excess 678 cards. And if you stand, if the dealer catches a 678 in one of the next two cards, he very likely doesn't bust.

2) As for tracking this in play, not easy at all. That's for sure. If you're using a main count like HiLo, 678 becomes the side count. As for strategy adjusting in play, I believe you'd look at a ratio such as (Total Remaining)/(678 Box remaining). This would normally be 13/3 = 4.33. If this ratio recedes to 3.50 or less, I could see some interesting strategy adjustments, specifically in playing the 12/13, which is close to the indices anyway.

3) Lastly, I can't practically see a great use for the 678 Box on shoes of 4+ decks. Like a normal count, the fluctuations will be flatter on big shoes. On SD (and even DD), the concentrations change significantly. I can't see it for 6-dks, however.

GL, boys.

The count itself gives considerably more information, a more informed decision and tracking this grouping is incorporated right in as an integral part of things. It all falls into place remarkably well.

I have spent countless hours side counting 7's in both SD & DD. The ratio comes up so seldom that I feel that it's not worth the effort. I still do it because it's part of my procedure but it's better to spend the effort on other things and concepts of the game.

Have to maintain a big picture viewpoint. Is it worth the extra effort?

I read most of that other post. Tarzan doesn't over-sell himself, I'll say that. Adding +1.0 unit per hour, increasing your net profit by 20%. Improved strategy on 20% of the hands. That's not unreasonable.

The 1st interesting key card strategy I ever read was in Thorp. Single-deck: 7-7 vs 10. 14 would normally be a hit, but since the 7's are 50% exhaused, you stand. Your P(21) is too diminished.

GL, boys.

When the dealer shows a 9, 8, or 7 excess 7's

have an enhancing effect on all of your hands.

How about splitting 4's ?

There are other examples, e.g. soft 13 and soft 14.

I use Hi-Opt II and have adjusted indices for all hands

where SURPLUS ~ or ~ DEFICIT 7's are significant.

Those running card adjustments go as high as +/- 6 !

There is an excellent book on this, which is called the Key Card concept. It is "Getting The Best Of It" by David Sklansky. The Key Card concept can be extremely important in single deck. It is the only book that I have read, out of many, that addresses the Key Card concept. The book also goes into the mathematics of other casino games.
Robbie

Many years ago when I was using hi-lo, I started keeping a side track of the 7's, 8's and 9's while playing single deck. I found it fairly easy to do. If you look at your fingers, palm side up, you'll see that each finger is divided into 3 parts. I would just move my thumb one position for each key card that came out. You know at a glance how many key cards are left. I found it was really good for knowing when to take insurance or not. Alot of times the hi-lo count would be telling me to take insurance when, in fact, there where extra (non ten) key cards remaining. I hope I explained my thoughts well enough.

That's exactly why using the RC together with number of remaining aces is a more reliable gauge for insurance.