bj in '09

Hello all,

Haven't posted in yrs (got swept away during the poker boom like everyone else!). Before I got into poker, I had decent success at blackjack in midstakes games using Uston APC (which I had mastered at 1, 2, and 6 deck games). But I lived in LA, never found a decent team, started law school, discovered poker, etc, so blackjack was set aside.

Just curious how the games have changed over the past 5 yrs or so. Is it still feasible to do well (say several hundred k a year, etc) by just using a good counting system (knowing it perfectly) and spreading green (say 25-300) in shoe games? Or is this basically outdated now given FRS, etc, worse games, blah blah blah?

How much have the games deteriorated? Even back when I played a decent amount, it seems things were getting a lot worse, and some predicted the games would be virtually dead in a few years. Has this prediction become accurate, or no?

I was just in Vegas for a week, and played for the first time in forever. I didn't really scout out the games or anything like I used to, but did notice that the basic strip game that used to be pretty common (DAS, S17, LS, etc) was pretty tough to find (everything was h17). It seemed there were some high minimum tables w/ decent rules (which I found kind of strange - why would they make only these games good? Is it a way to trap counters, etc? I'm sure these games are scrutinized excessively.)

Anyway, just wanted to check in to see what the current blackjack world looks like, and to ask whether it would be at all worthwhile to pursue as a secondary income/diversion from poker (and whether just ur basic ABC, card counting is still sufficient, or no longer feasible, to make a nice income).

Thoughts?

FRS does not work, but prospects for counting cards are pretty dismal.

On the other hand, prospects for advantage players get better and better every year. If you are ready to move "Beyond Counting" there is a lot of gold in them there hills.

Though I'm a little concerned with this:

"Is it still feasible to do well (say several hundred k a year, etc) by just using a good counting system (knowing it perfectly) and spreading green (say 25-300) in shoe games?"

There have never been "conditions" (nor could there ever be) that would allow a 25-300 spread on a shoe to earn you a few hundred k a year. This spread will earn $25-$50/hr tops. But you can get away with this for a long while with a little cover.

In Las Vegas there are many, many S17/DAS/LS shoe games all over the place, but most on the strip are $25 minimum. But if your goal is >$100k you're going to have to play a hell of a lot higher than that anyhow so the $25 minimum is irrelevant.

The higher minimum games having better rules is simple: for a reduced house edge, they need to raise the min to make a comparable hold per hour on each table. It's nothing more complicated than that, and isn't indication of a trap. They do the same at most single-zero roulette ($25 min).

Cool, thanks. Ya, I guess my understanding of win rate is off. I never played a ton of shoe games (mainly single/double deck), but was under the impression that w/ a good high level count done perfectly, and a decent shoe game (good rules, 75%+ pen), your hourly would be closer to 4 units w/ a 1-12 spread. And even then, 200k would be unrealistic for a solo counter (would have to play 40 hrs a week, lol!).

So w/ a 12 unit spread in a good shoe game using a good count perfectly, ur hourly expectation is only 1-2 units? Guess I'll have to open up BJ attack again.

is this a joke or what?

errrr...no? Did I say anything horribly wrong? Simply asked what the games were like now, as I used to play seriously 5+ years ago, but haven't kept up with the blackjack scene since. gtfo if you have nothing useful to say?

I'm a little confused - what is the difference between a "card counter" and an "advantage player"?

I have been reading about, learning, and practicing card counting for about 8 months now. If "advantage playing" is something completely different, have I been wasting my time?

wow!

haha, sorry. im sensitive about my lack of blackjack knowledge regarding winrates :).

i checked bj attack last night. w/ decent rules in a shoe with 5/6 pen, u can win over 3 (was close to 3, but that assumed only hi-lo and the 18 indices, as opposed to Uston APC w/ all indices) units back counting (which is what i used to do in shoe games). Plus I never play, so i can spread like 1-20, lol :).

...Pro21, if I may ask, what kind(s) of advantage player are you referring to in your 5/16/09 post in this thread?

(Rich and WilyM, thanks for the responses)

I know quite a few card counters who cannot claim to be AP for various reasons.
Some are just underbankrolled, some are unwilling to put the high stakes that it takes and many are simply lacking discipline and uncapable of reducing bets when the count has deteriorated (compulsive gamblers). Some don't even respect basic strategy.
On the other hand an AP is almost always a card counter. Most alternative techniques imply card counting and those that don't work only under specific conditions.

Francis Salmon

I'll concede a small subset of card counters are incompetent, but that doesn't negate the larger point which is: all COMPETENT card counters are AP's, but not all AP's are card counters.

>>On the other hand an AP is almost always a card counter. Most alternative techniques imply card counting and those that don't work only under specific conditions.

I'd suggest everyone ignore the above, you obviously don't understand that Advantage Play, more often than not, does not involve card counting and is not even performed at a BJ table.

WilyM, what are some good resources re: Advantage Play? I'd like to learn about non-card counting Advantage Play. Thanks again.

For starters, I'd join Green Chip, there is some info on non bj AP and the contacts you make could be invaluable for a successful long term career. In addition to BJ, GC also has pages on Sports Betting/Other games and a Video Poker page which at the very least would enable you to ask questions about what books you should purchase to learn more about these games. There other more sophisticated plays, but you wont find them discussed on open boards espcially free boards like this one.