What do you guys think of this betting system (don't know what it's called): You start with $10. When you win, you bet $30. You keep betting $30 until you lose, then you bet $10 again. And so on...
Is it any good at all? I don't have the nerves to keep a running count, so this would be perfect for me. Please tell me what you think!
That's a great system. You will make a ton of money with it. Now hurry to my casino so we can give all that money to you already.
Betting progressions do not work, period. They don't work because unless you can count cards, what happened in the past has no effect on what will happen in the future. When counting, you have a decent idea of what are the odds that you will win or lose the next hand and can adjust your bet accordingly.
...and wizards to help you win. Perhaps if we can get the tooth fairy in on this you might make a few million.
Seriously though, avoid this like the plague if you want to have any real chance of making money.
Any system that has you raising bets without knowing whether or not you have an advantage is worthless. The most common way of identifying that advantage is card-counting. There are other ways to do it as well, but no true advantage player raises bets without the knowledge that he has gained an advantage, unless he does it for purposes of cover which probably doesn't happen often.
Without that knowledge, you are betting in the dark. Now if you want to play good basic strategy blackjack, by all means, go ahead and have fun with it. It is one of the best games in the house. But realize that in the end, your expectation won't change one iota based on winning or losing the last hand (I know, I know, in single deckers, there is some very very small change that can occur, but for practical purposes, it doesn't change things). In the long run, you will win or lose your expectation times the amount of money you put on the table.
I think a basic strategy player is much better off by finding a betting level with which he is comfortable and playing a smart game designed to take advantage of the comping system. If he plays his cards right, he can offset his losses with comps. Raising bets blindly just means he will either a)lose more; or b) have shorter sessions.
"When counting, you have a decent idea of what are the odds that you will win or lose the next hand and can adjust your bet accordingly."
That's a new one on me!
Just as an excercise in futulity
First using basic and flat betting - then using your progression.
As you can see by est $$$ per 100,000 hands - it'll lose you money.
Here were the rules.
6 decks
Shufflepoint 260 cards, (83.33% penetration)
Face up game
Head on game
System used is basic strategy with basic strategy play
No true count conversion
Initial running count: 0
American rules - hole card game
Surrender is not allowed
Dealer stands on all 17
Doubling is allowed on any two cards
Doubling is allowed after splitting
Hand can be split 3 times, up to 4 hands
No resplit of aces
Only one card to split aces
Different tens can be split
Insurance is 1 half of a bet
----------Flat betting----------
Initial bet advantage: -0.42687
Estim. payoff per 100,000 rounds played is -426.87, with estim. std. 364.99
---Progression----------
Previous hand
won: 3.0
lost: 1.0
Initial bet advantage: -0.43392%
Estim. payoff per 100,000 rounds played is -846.25,with estim. std. 898.52
