Betting Indices for level 2 count

Gentlemen,

Some months ago I decided to to try to learn how to count cards for my own amusement (incidentally, your posts have chored up my confindence in making money at this... if I save up a $40,000 bank roll I could do extremely wel...) Never been inside a casino. I bought Bryce Carlson's "Blackjack for Blood" and have have learned his Omega II system (a level two count.) I can count down a deck now fairly quickly (of course, I have no way of knowing if I can do it well enough for casino play...) and have memorized basic strategy and his modified strategies for -6 and +6 decks. Here's my question: he includes a betting index which tells one when to increase one's bet. Unfortunately, it is very vague and I'm not sure if I really trust it. Unlike the rest of th book, it is not backed up by any sort of math. For instance, when playing single deck in Las Vegas, the table states to bet 2 units at +2 and over 2 units and +3. What happens when I'm at +9? Aren't these numbers rather low? Why am I suddenly jumping up above two units when I haven't even got a rich enough deck to justify using a +6 playing strategy? Just deosn't seem to make alot of sense.

Do any of you use a comparable count? How do you decide when to raise your bets? Frankly, if I could find a book which could help me wade through the math, I could figure this out on my own, but I'm not exactly sure how to make the leap from the odds of winning particular hands to the odds of winning with a particular count. If I could do that, this issue would be moot. Any help? Thanks.

If you sum the effects of removal of all cards deuce thru seven you arrive at the value .028 or 2.8%. The total of the tag values for the count you describe is eleven. Therefore you can expect each point of this count normalized to the full deck to be worth (2.8/11)% or ~.25%.

Your advantage is the product of the normalized count times 1/4% less the basic stragy disadvantage. How much you can optimally bet is your betting bankroll X your advantage X .8. Why .8? Because your optimimal bet is your bankroll X your advantage divided by the variance of possible outcomes which is ~5/4.

As a practical matter the range between your your highest and lowest wagers is tempered by your estimate of how much the casino will tolerate before throwing you out for being another damned system player taking advantage of them.

I hope this helps.

Igor

That is great. A huge help. Just looking at your post, and doing some quick math, I arrive at 1.5 units at +4, 2 units at +6 and 3 units at +8 (actually 2.8 units.) Sounds about right? Certianly seems alot more reasonable than the book indices.

A couple of questions about terminology:
(1) What is the "basic strategy disadvantage"? Is this referring to the slight edge the house always has in every game? From a table in my book I get the following odds when playing basic strategy Black Jack (assuming Vegas strip rules): +.1% with one deck, -.34% for two decks, -.45% for three decks... (gets progressively worse although plateaus at -.57%).
(2)What is the "variance of possible outcomes"? Why is it 5/4?
(3)I understand that in real play one has to be wary of advertising what one is doing. Huge bet swings based on the count is one way of getting barred. Is it true that in Vegas I should try to avoid betting more than 2 units? Does it depend on the level of action I have in play ($20 chips vs. $100 chips)?

Again, thanks for the help and quick response.

1. Yes.

2. See http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/paper1/proport.htm

3. In general, the higher your wagers and the fewer number of decks from which your game is dealt the more scrutiny you will enjoy. Almost all players vary their wagers according to assorted impulses. As a count system player you want to bet in accordance with the advantage your count system indicates you have. Bet sizing is a decision made on the purely mathematical basis I described and the desire to deceive the house as to your hard-acquired acumen. A quick read will not suffice to enlighten you. You will require actual casino experience and knowledge you presently do not possess. Enrolling as a green chip member and perusing the submissions in the several forums, including the archived submissions, will help.

A deceased pioneer of count system play, Griffin Owens, recommended that anyone serious about winning at twenty-one learn as much about the game as possible. I absolutely concur. You have a lot of ground to cover if this is your goal. Feel free to email those like myself who include an email address. Oddly perhaps, you will find that people are willing to lend guidance.

Good luck to you.

Igor

PS: What I've told you should prompt another immediate question. I will wait till you ask it.

bjrm and all your problems will be solved.

1. Buy some things.

2. Learn some things.

I leave the decision to you.

I play AOII, and while I think there is some great material in Carlson's book, I think reading the spread/betting advice in it early on in my learning made me paranoid about reasonably sized spreads. He advocates spreads that will barely make a dent given realistic penetration you'll find in casino play.

Also, I never really understood why he advocated learning the +6/-6 strategy first. I think you're better off learning the indices for the Illustrious 18 and then adding one by one as you desire. He lists them in the book p.127 but mislabels them the "Fabulous 18".

One other thing that I think get's glossed over in his book. The ace side count is pretty important with this count for betting purposes. However, you can do a lot more to improve your game with a bigger bet spread and finding better penetration than you can by adding and tweaking indices.

Start small and go get yourself some casino experience!