Bet off the top

I have given up via a 300 hour test to see what one can expect if one bets 8 units off the top of a 2D game (S17) and progresses down to 1 unit if the count goes negative and one loses, never going above 8 units in positive situations. My results are depressing to say the least. Overall results are being down about 500 units, high point being 500 units ahead at one point. My guess is this approach is a net 1% loser. Authors such as Einstein and esposed by others state such an approach works, to me it eats up what little profit one has.

Any comments or computer runs on such a betting method would be appreciated.

With 2D, S17, DAS, the basic strategy disadvantage is only .2%, so your system is not a 1% net loser (assuming you are at least playing as well as the basic strategist). Given that you are employing some bet variation, and assuming some strategy variation as well, you are still playing with a small advantage.

A 300-hour test is virtually meaningless and shouldn't be used to evaluate your system's effectiveness. Even without a test, however, whether it be real world or a longer computer simulation, always placing a max bet off the top isn't a good idea. Combined with progressing down only when the count is negative and you lose a hand, you are giving away far too much of what is already a slim advantage. Sure, you won't get much heat, but you also won't get much money either. Longevity at a game that's not worth playing is, well, not worth much :-)

David

Faro,

You are using a winning method with a high variance. Your 300 hours are meaningless. Overall, 8 units off the top spreading down by half at every negative point count should earn you at least 3 units per 100 hands, say 3.5

How many units do you have as a bankroll? I would not try it with less than 4000 units.

G Man

This method recommended 2000 units for a 5% ROR. Largest drawdown was about 1200 units during my sample test of 300 hours (about 4 months of Casino play I guess). The method did not of course recommend parlay betting methods in that the provided information was sparse. Your numbers seem to be in agreement with the follow on author (George C.).

I have found that for my blackjack play tests (not performed on a computer) after about 200 or more hours the statistics seem to even out, I let this test go a bit longer, probably because I wanted to see how bad it could get. The bankroll seemed to get stuck and not able to recover after an initial rise.

I have used BJRM with the following:
2 decks, S17, DAS and 67% pen (70/104)

Playing 8 units at zero or more and spreading down to 4 (-1), 2 (-2) and finally 1 (-3 or less).

EV = 3.56 units / 100 hands
SD = 76.98 units / 100 hands

2000 units bankroll = 9.05% RoR
4000 units bankroll = 0.82% RoR

If I understand you correctly, you were playing "even" ($0 won) after 200 hours. If so, you had about 26% chance of this occuring using the above numbers. I would just say: keep on playing!

Not the progression downward or upward that I was using but the information is definately useful and probably the way I should be playing. My betting scheme was to bet optimal Kelly but I could only get there depending on the outcome of the previous bet. If I won an 8 unit bet and the count went highly negative, I would maintain the 8 unit bet until I had a loss; if at this time its still negative I would only cut my bet in half. Ditto for positive counts. I will switch to this betting approach. Perhaps one day I will invest in BJRM and get a computer up an running.

The wife and I were in Laughlin 10 days ago. I was playing double deck games (double deck and shoes were all I found...at first). Don't bother going in the Edgewater. DD games but they don't open another bj table until all tables are full and there are enough people waiting to fill the one they open next. Pit bosses all over the place. Then I found a single deck game at the Golden Nugget. There's only 1 SD game in the place. It's a good game with average pen and all employees are friendly. Then, next door, at the Pioneer they have a SD game. It's a dust joint, decent pen., but I got the feeling if you bet more than $25 on a hand you would have alot of heat..Wish I had found the Golden Nugget earlier in my stay!!