Best sim???

I've noticed that with my modified version of basic strategy, I seem to win just as often with high negative counts as with high positive counts....and sometimes even more. I'm wanting to try a sim that provides the opportunity to offer progressive bets with both higher neg and pos counts--this could even vary, for instance, higher bets on neg4 than on pos4, etc.

The thought has struck me that I may be able to gobble up more winnings by devising a strategy to take advantage of high neg counts as well as high positive ones. (As a matter of fact, I'm amazed at how much I often end up losing when betting more with higher positive counts!@!)

Any recommendations?

"Any recommendations?"

Two. 1) Take your question to the Progressions page. 2) Forget all about your idea. The order in which you do these two things probably doesn't matter much!

Don

oh wait, perhaps I'd better not post that here

Your experience is quite valid. All that a high positive says is that there are a certain class of cards in a higher %age. That info is being interpreted by the enthusiast without any real factual basis that they have such a great advantage. What they don't realize is that this is also a game of card sequence and not quality of cards. It actually traps many novices who basically could be good CC's but forget that fact. But, hey, even the "experts" gloat about wins when they think that it was due solely to their counting.

A seasoned and experienced counter does not even need to count with SD game. Why? He develops a keener sense and mostly things fall together- a fusion of natural feel from the flow of the game and what's most likely to follow given what has already happened.

You wrote:

"I've noticed that with my modified version of basic strategy, I seem to win just as often with high negative counts as with high positive counts....and sometimes even more."

Any amount of noticing you have done is not enough to justify any change in strategy, nor suggested change in strategy. There are two reasons for this:

1) Noticing is not equivalent to careful record keeping. Often our noticing is skewed by our emotional involvement in the game.

2) You have not played enough hands to have any meaningful observations about the game, nor will you be able to any time soon.

If you would like to suggest parameters for a simulation, and have them scrutinized by the experts, feel free to do so. But, suggesting that there is anything good (money to be earned) to be made out of negative counts is absurd, and you deserve all the abuse you get. If you are talking about changing strategy in negative counts, the strategy numbers are already computed, it is a done deal. If you are talking about wonging, that is already understood. If you are talking about changing basic strategy itself (as you seem to imply) that is totally out of the question. If you are suggesting a betting system, go to the progression pages.

So, anything you want to say on this issue is handled by the comments by DS.

--The Mayor

Fred, You should get together with Ferdinand and make a bundle of money in high negative counts on the flow of the cards. You guys are out to lunch!!! BoSox

I am a professional who teaches how to write acceptable answers to written questions. Your response would be unacceptable because it does not answer the proposed question. The theory is that it is best to not to answer the question with an off-topic response. 0 points for your answer, although this was not a test ;)
Work on improving your understanding of what is being asked.

I'm not surprised. The reply itself has the message. Most gambling is usually because of the same type of behavior- denial? But, then, in the world of emotions, our traits come into play. There's a saying that rational people make decisions based using their mental faculty. Truth is that most of decisions made by humans are really based on emotions and the heart... but then, the made to appear to look rational to the outside world by coming up with "excuses". Nobody is completely devoid of this. It's a question of degree only; and, where one's vulnerabilities may be.

You seem to have something in place going for you. A true believer?

Ferdinand, You and Fred deserve each other. My game is based solely on mathematics and, so far it has worked very well for me. BoSox

DS and the Mayor. The Mayor was nice enough to spell it out for you so i hope you listened.
another piece of advice: don't play for a while and read a few books (and understand them) if you wanna play with an advantage. Otherwise you are a gambler and destined to lose.

"I seem to win just as often with high negative counts"
you "seem" ? your damn feelings don't have nothing to do with this game !!! so get that nonsense out of your head.

at the arrogance of posters on this board--mainly people who think they win because of "mathematics". Ba hum bug!

When I said I "seem" to win as much with high negs as with high pos, what I MEANT to say was that I *DO* win just as much with high negs as with high pos counts. Why? It's simple mathematics folks.

You don't win just because the %age of 10's is higher in a deck--or lower. Indeed, the house has the same damn odds of scoring high cards as do you, whether the count is high, low, or neutral. Those of you who think winning only occurs when the count is high are nothing but mathematically challenged fools.

In my system, I know the count so that I can better predict the hole card and the next card out of the shoe. I do *NOT* place higher bets in advance based on the count being higher or lower--I win bigger bets knowing when to split and double--a mathematically engineered formula btw. I was *thinking* of devising a new betting system based on high & low counts, but after thinking it through, I'm happy to stick with what works for me--and with much greater consistency, I'd dare say, than most of you "mathematical geniuses".

Ferd, I'd be delighted to take some casino's money with you any time! Just say the word!

If we are truly going to institute a "Hall of Shame," I nominate the above nonsense as the most ignorant post of the month.

Don

Fred, If you haven't already why don't you try posting on the books/software board to try and find a sim which will let you set it up to increase your bet in negative counts. Another option would be to reverse the card values of the count being simulated (ie: for HiLo 10-A = 1, 2-3-4-5-6 = -1) and then run the sim with a normal betting ramp based on the max bet at a high plus count. This will demonstrate whether or not your idea is a valid one or not. Good luck with your research. Hit 'em hard, The Side

The arrogance from most of the poster's is due to the fact that they've already spent a lifetime studying this game and have seen posts similar to your's so many times.

I think you're on the right track to simulate it and not just play on your hunches even though I disagree with your theory. If you can prove your findings we will all humbly bow down, but I don't think that's gonna happen. Try to understand that there are people here who have spent 1000's of hours studying, simulating, playing and understanding blackjack. You won't lose any friends by asking honest questions about your theories, people here are usually friendly (not always) but once it degrades to attacking other people's proven systems better just change your handle.

Your post is a bit like trying to tell Nobel prize winning physicists that you think you can make gold from lead and you'd like their help to prove it.

to get him engaged in a game of BJ.

LOL

Just kidding.

Thanx AZ--I appreciate your input and your perspective.

As I've mentioned before, I guess I'm just going to have to write that book one of these days. I too have played 1000's of hands of BJ--and countless sims--just trying to gain an extra edge, that's all.

Frankly, I don't think I'd fare much better betting higher on high neg counts, but, I have noticed that I do tend to win more hands when the count is neg. Go figure. Problem is, I can't get a sim that will correctly simulate *my* little system--LOL.

Money management has been my real problem over the years. I posted earlier (months) about streaks. It's those damn streaks that freak me out and keep me from playing progressive for the most part--I'm usually content to play patiently and make $$$ on splits, double downs and the occasional BJ.

Thanks again for taking the time to respond!

Well, Fred, while I agree with most of the prior posters about your "system", you at least seem genuinely interested in finding out if there is a better way, which, while maybe slightly misguided in this instance, isn't all bad. As far as your surprise at DS's contempt of your posts, realize that you're trying to tell the pope that there's a more highly evolved form of religion....Don played a lot of BJ and run a lot of sims, proving even the most minute details such as floating advantage; if Don says it, and it has to do with BJ, save yourself alot of trouble and just believe it as fact. He'll be right 99.9% of the time.
As far as the sims are concerned, yes, you may notice that low counts win about as much as high counts. The standard outcomes for BS play in BJ are 44% win, 48% lose, 8% tie. I seriously doubt any of those numbers change by more than 2% in exceptionally low OR high counts except for a few exceptions. You may be forgetting that it's not just the standard win-loss expectation of hands that determines your bet size;it's expectation. Simple example-BS dictates doubling 11 vs. 7, but you would win more OFTEN by only hitting. The fact that you are allowed to put more $$$ out after already knowing a favorable situation, however, makes it worthwhile. I'm pretty sure you understand this concept. What you may be forgetting, however, is that, let's say you're in a progression which has a 10x bet out for you at a -12 true count and the same situation comes up. Do you REALLY want to double your 11 vs. 7 now? Of course not, and therefore you just had a sigificant amount of $$$ out at a time in which you cannot maximize it. Obviously, the lower the count is also, the less chance you will have a blackjack, which while only counted as one win in the sims, it's really worth one-and-a-half. Remember, any edge you are playing with or against in BJ is always going to be slight at best,(unless you play like an idiot), and it can easily seem that you have more effect on the game than you actually do.

I would suggest that you go to the Green Chip Theory page and post your system in detail. You will get quick input on its viability from folks who are truly experts in the field. Until you give details, your system sounds fanciful on its face and isn't likely to be taken seriously by a lot of folks.