Here's my deal. Playing SD H17, No DAS DA2. Got a bank of $900. Counting Hi-lo, still trying to learn indices for strategy variation. I want to spread 5:1 on the red table with a $5 low bet. How should I spread per true count? Is my spread and amoount realistic for my bank? Any input greatly appreciated.
With only a $900 bank and a min of $5 bets you will be at a high risk of ruin(about 40%). On SD(50% pen) bet $5 on minus, $10 at +1tc, $25 at +2tc or more. This bet spread will get you the biggest bang for your buck and you might be able to grind out a 1% edge if you play very well.
Good luck.
Your risk of ruin is quite high, depending on the penetration you are getting in this game. It would run from about 34% at 50% penetration, which is quite common on single deck games to just about Kelly levels if you could get 75% penetration, which is quite rare.
A 1-5 spread could be used at this betting level without too much heat in most places, but there are exceptions to the rule. A good betting spread for 1-5 in single deck would be;
1 unit at counts of less than +1, 2 units at +1, 4 units at +2 and +3 and 5 units at +4 or higher.
Unfortunately, with a $900 bank, you have a high chance of going broke. But, you do have a better than even chance of doubling that bank and if you lose the whole shooting match, you haven't lost much, all things considered. If you do double the bank, don't raise your betting levels quite yet. If you can build to a $3K bank, you might consider raising your bet levels to $10, but not before that.
66% where I'll be playing. Better than even chance of doubling, huh? after aproximately how many hands am I looking at?
Using BJRM 2000 at the 35/52 penetration level, which is 67%, a $900 bank with $5 unit using the bet spread I described above has a 22.65% lifetime ROR. It would take 11,223 hands to double, using Hi-Lo and the Illustrious 18, assuming, of course, perfect play and consistent penetration and, most importantly, that you don't lose the bankroll along the way. Your real life results would probably not mirror that exactly, but it gives you an idea of what ballpark you are in.
22.65% isn't terrible I guess. Don't most you guys strive for about 11%? This is going to be a short trip, So I won't even approach 11,000 hands, but who knows? We'll see how it goes...
Many serious players are looking for ROR's of 1% or less. It depends on your approach to the game and whether or not your bankroll is renewable. If you are playing for serious money and expecting your earnings to be an important part of your income, then an 11% ROR would be unacceptable to many players.
I just ran some figures on the same conditions and the optimal bet for a tc of 2 and 3 is showing 15$. The best bet at a 1 tc is only $7.(probably due to a low bankroll).
Down to $5? $15 at 2 and 3, $20 at 4 and $25 at 5?
Vary 1-8. Red SD heat will be minimal at most. Yes, you up your ROR, but not by much.
I'm kind of looking to do a slash and burn job I guess. I need to get in, have good luck and get the hell out. (Sounds idealistic, I know)
Any other advice?
I dont see a problem betting $7.
TC) 1=$7
2-3=$15
4or more=$25
If you do go to $10 at 1tc, your ror will only increase by a few %, the choice is yours.
For example, alternate bets: $5 one time, $10 the next, then back to $5 etc, to approximate a long term average of $7 (this may take a bit of discipline). I ran a quick Excel simulation on this, and it looks like your expected return would remain the same, while your standard deviation would only increase by about 6%.
In addition to approximating optimal betting, it is also good cover. Betting exactly $7 repeatedly seems a little wierd to me. But hey, whatever works for you.
