I'm brand new at investigating Basic Strategy and Counting. I read somewhere once that if you want to see how a strategy for beating any casino game will play out, first simulate it 10,000 times. Inevitably, everything seems to lose. I'm near 10,000 Blackjack sims, but to be sure whether or not this is something I may pursue as my 'job', I'm simulating 20,000 hands just to be sure. The early returns using just Basic Strategy are starting to scare me in the overall success. Here's my set-up; feel free to poke holes in this as well as I don't want to be unawares that the way I'm trying to gather results that will tell me one way or the other are off base somehow. First, I don't want to talk about Counting because I'm showing very troubling results with my own sims, plus I've read some very poor advice in other material on the when to apply hot/cold hands and how much to bet. I'm manually playing 4-deck shoes, 7 hands per round, 7 rounds per shoe, 75% penetration. Assuming $50 basic bet and 25 hours per week, I'm on pace with Basic only for an annual take of +46,000, or roughly a taxed +60,000/yr job. I know someone smarter or with a bigger computer than me has done all the math long ago and deemed that correct application of Basic only slightly reduces the House edge, but an edge they still have. Someone else with say that as well as I'm doing now, the next 10,000 sims will do a 180 degree and give it all back. Maybe but I doubt it as I've seen some very encouraging trends so far. Or someone else will say I'm hot now but play it in real life 100,000 more times and it will all even out. I'm still not so sure since what I've done so far is the equivalent of 2 1/2 - 3 months worth of 'real' gaming and if that isn't a good test then I'm not sure what is. Or someone will say the next 10,000 sims might not give it all back but will stay even from here out or expect to lose some of the earlier winnings. Fair, but then it's up to the individual to decide how much less than on pace for $60,000/yr is ok with them. Ok, thoughts anyone? Thanx -
