Basic Player

I feel out of my league with this question because it sounds like most here are counters, but I can't think of a bunch of BETTER people to run this by.

I am not a counter but a very good BS player...not perfect, mind you, but very good. (I make several mistakes each session and I am working on perfecting my basic strategy)

Anyway, I believe I found a way to bring the odds against the house in my game to almost even. For myself and other BS players, I believe there is three important areas to get good at in order to win more than you lose. I don't think that perfect basic strategy play, alone, is enough. BUT, if you couple good to perfect play with a sound money management plan and discipline in knowing when to quit...it increases your chances tremendously. Let me explain.

I just got back from Tunica where I spent 7 days playing BJ.(Too much play) The reason I played so much was to test my theory over an extended time frame. I play nickels. (I am a small time player, obviously. But until I am ready to be a counter, I refuse to play anything higher).

In my last four excursions to Vegas and Tunica my results were as follows: Trip 1 won $500, Trip 2 lost $400, Trip 3 won $300, and this last week lost $52.00. (Not bad considering I probably played more hands this last week than my previous 3 trips combined)

My strategy is simple. I have a LOST LIMIT before I sit down at a table. Most of my limits are $50 to $75.00.(I buy-in for $100.00 and NEVER pull anything else out) If I lose that much, I quit and wait for another session. However; if I win, I play until I start losing to my limit again. I have found that I can have 6 to 8 straight losing sessions and then when I get a run of cards, win it all back and sometimes much more! My money management plan is to start at $5 and as I win, I press to $8, $12, $16, $21, $31 and from here press depending on the streak. Once I lose a hand, I revert back to the $5 and start all over.

For a novice, recreational player, I do not take my game seriously enough to count cards. I do not go in a casino to "have a good time" or chat with other players, but I do go in with the attitude of winning. I am serious in that respect.

My question is this. This strategy works for me, but since I only play BJ maybe 1/2 dozen times a year or so, is it worth the trouble to learn counting? Will there be enough games to keep me sharp at it? I kind of feel that since I win more than I lose, now, it may not be worth the effort. Plus, since I play BS, the casino never has to worry about my play, and that is something I don't have to worry about either. Plus, free room and board is icing to the cake!

I would like any and all comments about my play and your thoughts whether or not I should take my game to the next level. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Radar

A question such as this can only be answered by the individual himself. My own take is that many (including myself) enjoy the counting aspect because of the advantage they now hold over the casino. Blackjack becomes as much about the thrill of advantage as it does about the rewards of the profit. Does the idea of turning the tables excite you enough to invest time into the game. It is imperative that if you are to begin this journey, that you do so because of the thrill, not the money. You have to want to read the books, memorize the indicies, and think blackjack. Does this sound like fun? It does to me.

P.S. Your experiment is much too short for any reliable data. In the long run a BS player will always lose.

HJ

I agree that turning the tables is exciting to me...as I really DO want to beat them at their own game; however, I am still trying to find out if it is worth it for a measely half dozen trips per year. Of course, if I counted, those numbers would probably increase, as well.

I also agree that basic play, generally, is an overall loser but what I was trying to say was that a GOOD system with good play lowers the odds tremendously to ALLOW for decent odds on winning.

By the way, those 4 trips were not the extent of my play. I was just giving some recent examples. I have been using this type of play since 1998 and have come away fairly well against the casinos. (A little ahead)

I also failed in my previous post to say that I DOCUMENT each session so I KNOW how I am doing. I don't want to leave anything to memory...I despise leaving even a nickle of my money at the tables when I leave. Because of this, my inclination is to take it to the next level.

Thanks for your reply...

First off, decide once and for all what your goal is.

Is it to make money, or to have fun.

If it is to have fun, then do progressions, do fly-by-your-pants, do whatever makes for a good time.

If it is to make money, then take the advice of the best gambler out there. The one who makes the most money gambling is the one you should take advice from. Who is the best gambler out there? THE CASINO!!! They make more money than anyone out there, and they have made a business out of it and a successful one too. What advice would a casino give to you? Play a game where the long-term result is you win more than you lose. How? By having an edge. The casino is successful at gambling because they have an edge. If you have this edge too, you too can be successful like the casinos. It will also take money too, the casino always has enough money to make sure they can make the next bet.

Still, experience will be the best teacher when it comes to debunking progressions and the like. I hope, for your sake, the acquiring of this experience does not cost you a significant amount of money. I would like to suggest you go to www.blackjackinfo.com and use their free game there to test your progression. Since it is free, it will cost you less than an actual casino. It is not as difficult as it seems to card count. Pick up the book "Professional Blackjack" from this site and read it. You will see that it is really pretty easy to spot a good betting situation. Get that book and go to the website I mentioned and start practicing counting while playing.

If you still want to use progressions, at least knowing the count can keep you at a flat bet when you are at a losing situation and maybe save you a bit. If you use the count to stop progressions in bad counts, then your average bet in the low counts will be less, and your average bet in the high counts will be higher. This is not efficient in terms of making money, but you can at least save your progression for a positive count when a blackjack is more likely, and a double is more likely to pay off as well.

At the very least, learn when the deck is improving or not. If you are using a progression, and a bunch of 10s and Aces have come out, maybe back off until the shuffle. Play fewer decks too, knowing just a few cards in a 2 deck game can tell you when to back off on a progression. This won't give you an edge, but perhaps saving a few progressions from losing can help you get to your win goal sooner, and stave off the long run by getting you out of the house quicker.

It sounds to me that you enjoy all the data involved with playing somewhat seriously (on a recreational basis). I know when I started playing Blackjack I bet just like you do. When I read my first book, it described card counting. I used to think it was a difficult thing that only a genius could master. I began to practice, this was fun. My first plan of attack as I became familiar with counting was to continue to use my progressive betting technique and just know that I had the advantage in certain situations. I paid no attention to risk of ruin or anything like that. I steadily got more involved. I currently own approx. 25 books on blackjack and have read them all. I own simulation software and have progressed from your betting level to $25-$200 spread. I have been doing this with some close friends and we have made it to this level in about a year and a half.
It seems that you are disciplined enough to play carefully. It is a fun hobby and really not that difficult. It draws you in.
Just my 2 cents. I'm sure Hal Jordan has a similar story.

It sounds like it is time to give counting a shot. You might be surprised at how much more thrilling the game can be. You might find that you are taking several more trips than you had ever thought you would. In starting out on any endeavour, excitement is the key. If you find that counting interests you, you may soon find that your appetite for knowledge on the subject is voracious. If not, there is no loss. If this is not your living, study and play for as long as it is fun. If it ever becomes work, rather than play my advice would be to quit. Have fun!

HJ

I wish I could make 6 trips a year to play Blackjack. Unfortunately, my trips are limited to 1 or 2 per year. However, for me it was definitely worth the effort to learn to count. I now know that I hold the advantage over the casinos and enjoy the cat-n-mouse game of trying to stay a step ahead of them. Moreover, when you know that you hold the advantage, you can really savor your wins because you know that you are achieving your victories because of the skill you have learned. It also makes your losses more palatable because in the long run you know that you will make it up. Good luck!

Thanks for the encouragement. I guess what you hit upon is another reason I haven't gotten into counting. It seems like it will be a tremendous undertaking...I guess it's like anything else...you get out of it what you put in.

I have read a few different books, but where can you advise me is the best place to start. I guess I can get started here, but I want to get Basic Strategy down perfect before I start counting.

Any particular books, sites, or both you or anyone can recommend?

Thanks,

Radar

I would suggest starting out by reading some material that is both practical and interesting. The fires of interest must be ignited in order for you to experience the thrill of the game. I would start out by reading Blackjack Wisdom by Snyder (especially the B.A. in counting section). Then, I would move on to Professional Blackjack by Wong (this is dry, but will give you so much in actual practical mathematical information). Then, I would read Blackjack Autumn by Meadows. This is by no means a book of theory, but rather a glimpse into the psychology of the game. I think this type of reading is essential to furthering the flames of interest.

As far as sites go, this one is a great resource. Take some time to fully explore all of the tools available on this site. In addition, www.bjforumonline.com, and www.advantageplayer.com are excellent.

Most importantly, you need to ease yourself into the water by spending time in the casinos, playing improved blackjack. Take time to study and learn, then ease into your own explorations of the casino environment. Everyone will offer advice on how to play, but in the end you are the one that must sit at the table and risk your bankroll. My advice is to learn the math, but master the psychology.

Good luck, and my all of your negative sittings be during practice rounds at home.

HJ

Only you can decide why you play blackjack. If you're just interested in free (or virtually free) vacation getaways you can't pick a better game than blackjack. Buy Max Rubin's Comp City and use his approaches to maximize your percieved theoretical to the casino (and comp value).

Stop wins and stop losses accomplish nothing with regards to the house edge. For a casual player you'd just be better off bringing a set amount of money for a 3 day trip and dividing it up into three piles and never lose more than that day's pile. Never bring more money than you want to lose that trip and be aware that some trips you will double or triple your money and others you'll go bust.

Progressions can be more fun and give you a chance for a big win, however, if limiting your overall action (and winning via the comp system) is your goal then you want to simply bet big when the pitboss is watching (like for the first 10 minutes or so when you sit down) and bet small the rest of the time.

For Radar, it is good that you are tracking your results...however, one trip (or even a dozen trips) tells you nothing. It takes several hundred of hours of play for your edge (or the houses edge) to overcome variance. If you play just good (double any) single deck games it could take the casino several thousand hours for their edge to become apparant to a perfect basic strategy player. Anything that happens in the meantime is just variance (luck).

that makes playing blackjack fun. Blackjack as a pure comp play is nothing more than a grind. Combining comps and expectation is the real fun.

Thanks for the info...I just finished Blackjack Autumn by Meadows and found it fasinating. Especially the area of disguising his game. In addition to learning the count, I realize I equally have to learn the other facets of the game, as well, as they are just as important.

I also realize that if I take the time to do this the rewards will be fun and profitable.

Appreciate your insight.

Let there be no mistake about it...my goal is the MONEY...the fun comes from and only WHEN I take it from them!

The reason I press my bets is I DO NOT count. I do try and keep a "general" idea of the cards out and if the table just had a run of a bunch of small cards, (or the opposite) will adjust my bet accordingly.

Since I play nickels and don't count, most of the games I play are 6 deck shoes. I did find a couple of nickel single and double deck games in Tunica but the table was always loaded and the dealer reshuffeled after every hand, rendering that game useless.

I am sure once I start learning to count, my progressive game will fall by the wayside, but as of now, it has worked very well for my Basic Strategy play.

Thanks for the information, will check it out.

Great hearing from you.

And NO I am not interested in a free vacation, BUT I do not mind the casinos comps that go along with my trip. It leaves me with a bigger bankroll to play.

You have to realize that for the last few years I am just learning to understand the game and the psychology that surrounds it. Believe me, I DO think about the casino's edge and try to see how I can find one of my own to offset it. (That's why I am thinking of taking my game to the next level of counting) It seems very plausible to me that if I can hold my own against the casino now with my play of Basic Strategy, the advantage will swing tremendously in my favor once I learning the art of counting.

You also indicate that "Stop wins and stop losses accomplish nothing with regards to the house edge" and that's true. But what it does for me is allow me to not get into a "bad" session and sit there and repeatedly pull out more C-notes and continue playing trying to win back what I just lost. By having my lost limit, the casino got only $50 to $75 from me on that round and I have the rest of my money for another day. It's kind of like the boxer that goes into the match having to box 12 rounds. He may get beat in rounds 3,6,7 and 8 but if he wins the others convincingly enough, he walks away a winner. I, too, want to play enough rounds to get me to the point that will allow me to win.

Boy, was I wrong. I thought all you counters must have a monthly schedule of traveling across the country, going from casino to casino in order to disguise your play and not become too familiar at any one place. It only seemed logical to me that people like yourself would play alot since you had the advantage.

The only reason I can go a half dozen times a year is that I live about 7 hours from Tunica and my day job is with the Feds so I get 5 weeks off a year, plus the holidays.

I can assure you that your post has really got me to think, now...if you feel it was worth the effort for your limited action, then, it would definitely be worth the effort for mine.

Thanks again, appreciate it.

1. Bj is just one of several casino games that advantage players use to make a nice side income or even as the main income source. The thing you should walk away from these discussions is that learning the skills to identify positive expectation situations is the key! These skills apply not only to other casino games (even on-line casinos) but other situations such as security selection, etc.

2. 7 hours is very long one-way trip because that means you incur 14 hours for a round-trip. You should factor the gas and time into your profit calcuations. What I am saying is even though you are making $50 a day, it may not cover your insurance, wear and tear on your vehicle (or your body), your gas bill, hotels, food, etc. For example, I used to drive an hour for a weekly promo, and I eventually had to stop because my average $200 win rate wasn't justifying the 6 hour effort (I may revisit it if my average win rate increased to $300).

Yes, I would eventually like it to be in a good positive state. As my play improves, so does my winnings.

Funny you should mention the cost of the trip...I was just talking to my wife about that less than an hour ago. I was telling her that once I learn to count and learn how to play as a counter, my winnings should increase to the point, ALL the expenses would be paid for. Obviously, that is what you want.

I am not looking to moving TOO close to casinos, either, as I don't want that allure staring me in the face daily and take me away from my other interests, if you know what I mean?

I don't quite understand what you mean when you say..."learning the skills to identify positive expectation situations is the key! These skills apply not only to other casino games (even on-line casinos) but other situations such as security selection, etc."

I understand that it is paramount to knowing the positive expectations; but what is SECURITY SELECTION?

Thanks for your input, I have gained a greater perspective already!

For basic strategy players, it does not matter at all if the dealer shuffles after every round at a crowded single deck table. In fact, a Tunica single deck game that is shuffled after every round is one of the best games anywhere for a basic strategist.

>>>Since I play nickels and don't count, most of the games I play are 6 deck shoes. I did find a couple of nickel single and double deck games in Tunica but the table was always loaded and the dealer reshuffeled after every hand, rendering that game useless.<<<

I guess what I meant and forgot to say is that I am not a counter, but I have trained myself well enough to scan the table and get an "IDEA" of whether there are a lot of small or large cards out and I will fluctuate my bet, accordingly. So, if they shuffle each hand, I can't do that.

Of course, if I don't do that, you're right, it would make no difference.