Any Good Bacarrat Simulators?

Anybody know of any good Bacarrat simulators? Looking at analyzing the game and some rules variations.

In terms of mathematic complexicity, Bacarrat is much simpler than Blackjack. In my opinion there is rarely any need for simulators. You should look for software programs using CA (combinatorial analysis) which can give you the exact figures on Bacarrat games with rule variations.

If you would like to beat Bacarrat using any counting system, the following is my impression. For a game with a house commission of 5% of the banker's winning, there is little hope that any counting system will give you a winning advantage. The chance of getting a positive EV based on the count is there but the chance of getting it is too small to be useful. In other words, it doesn't happen frequent enough. The counting systems will make you lose less but not win. But if the game has a house commission of 3.5% or less of the banker's winning, the counting systems do work as the house advantage is much less to start with and can be overcome by using a counting system. The problem is where to find the games with commission of 3.5% or less. Then developing and studying a counting system will be worthwhile.

Sorry, I don't have any figure to support my 2-cent opinion.

If you would like to beat Bacarrat using any counting system, the following is my impression. For a game with a house commission of 5% of the banker's winning, there is little hope that any counting system will give you a winning advantage. The chance of getting a positive EV based on the count is there but the chance of getting it is too small to be useful. In other words, it doesn't happen frequent enough. The counting systems will make you lose less but not win. But if the game has a house commission of 3.5% or less of the banker's winning, the counting systems do work as the house advantage is much less to start with and can be overcome by using a counting system. The problem is where to find the games with commission of 3.5% or less. Then developing and studying a counting system will be worthwhile.

Mostly correct, but it is not so much the Banker's commission and the house edge which prevents counting from being effective. Rather, it is the small effect of removal of any given card on bank, player and tie.
That said, if you can know the exact card composition, you will very occassionally find large advantages at the end of deeply-penetrated decks, mainly on the tie wager. Consider a deck composition of any one rank only would have an edge of 800%. Two ranks would give you 200%+ in most cases, and three will give you >50% in most cases. Four or five ranks only often produce more variable edges also. You can profit if you can somehow obtain an absolutely huge bet spread.

Just like in Blackjack, the RC can be sky high at the end of the shoe. That will certainly give Bacarrat counters some advantage. If your spread is big enough you may beat the game. But if the penetration is not deep enough, you may be out of luck for 5% commission game by betting banker/player.

For tie-bets, GBV gave good examples. I would also add that if you know that all remaining cards are even cards (I mean 0,2,4,6,8 valued cards) you have a good advantage of betting the tie as 20% of time there will be ties. It is also true if the remaining cards are all face cards and 5 valued cards as about 50% of the time there will be ties (tied on 0 or 5). That is in theory. I still don't know how to catch these opportunities.

Most Baccarat shoes in the world cut 14 or 15 cards from the back. At my casino we don't count these cards, we just guess. Some casinos will even expose all of the burn cards. Bac is not about keeping a running count like blackjack. It's about keeping track of every single card in the deck. An abundance of low cards 2-7 will help the player, 4-7 will help the player even more. I don't know any kind of player charts were this issue is addressed. Face cards usually help the bank, because when the player draws it means that player has an initial starting hand of 5 or less. If the face card is pulled then the player will stay the same or be reduced as with an 8 or 9 bank will only stop if it is 4 or more, otherwise it will hit and have an extra chance to beat the player if the player is not beat already.

This is only in theory however, so if someone has a good simulated Bac charts based on 2-7's being depleted, Id like to see it.

...or you need to check your math! ;-)

Dog Hand

Baccarat pen. is usually 99%... Most Baccarat shoes in the world cut 14 or 15 cards from the back.

I was speaking generically rounding to 99%

If a casino cuts 14 cards from the back the NEXT to last hand is when the cut card comes out which could leave 9 cards left for the last hand. The last hand could contain 6 cards which only leaves 3 left. At my casino, we guess how many to cut, so, I've had a shoe with 20 cards left and I've had a shoe with no cards left--AND luckily pulled a Natural.....(YIKES!).