anti-heat

Never seen anything like this so thought I would relay it for fun.

Had to go to Mobile yesterday to the "world's largest outboard motor recycler" to get a gearcase for my Merc outboard. Son went with me and we found a decent part so quickly we decided to make a run over to Biloxi. Since I110 drops off at the Beau, we thought we'd check there as he wanted to play some BJ (5-10 buck preferably but that's another story).

We got there and it was far more crowded than I had expected, and the lo-limit tables were well beyond stuffed although the higher-limit tables were not. My son watched the 5$ tables for openings while I went to watch a 2d $100 minimum game with just one player (pitched game). As I watched, a neatly dressed guy, nice suit, walks up and buys in for 10 $100 bills and gets 10 black chips back. Now there are two playing.

He starts off with a $100 bet and wins like 4 of the first 5 hands he plays, progressing his bet upward. Now he has about $2000 in front of him while the other player is doing poorly and leaves. I continue to watch and was unconsciously counting as the deck was shuffled. By now he was up about $3000 and I could not see how he was getting away with spreading 100-1200 by playing 2 hands. But he was and he was doing well. The pit crew seemed to know him by name (Bigplayer, were you down there yesterday?? :) ) In any case, it wasn't long before the pit boss walked over and replaced the $100 min with a $25 min sign.

I thought "what the heck?" I had about $1000 with me, risky at $100 per bet, but for $25 I thought it would work. First deck took about 1/2 of that as the count went impossibly high, but as sometimes happens, I _still_ got the 6's and the dealer got the 10's and there was simply nothing to do. On one particular hand, with not quite 1 deck gone (penetration was not great, but this dealer was getting close to 75% at times, barely over 50% at other times, no rhyme or reason that I could detect) and the RC/TC was at +19. Got a 11 (6/5) vs the dealer's A and decided not to double since my BR was already taking a beating. Got a A. Hit again. Got an A. Thought that was ridiculous so even though the index said "stay on 13 with the TC that high (but obviously dropped by 2 already) I hit again. Another A. Hit again. Another A. Decided I would ignore and keep hitting, and ended up with a 19 and lost to the dealer's 20. But that sort of tells how that deal went.

In any case, things got much better, and I recovered back to being up about $300 (1300 total) and decided to be a bit more aggressive since the guy next to me was not getting _any_ heat or notice whatsoever. Got a good count again (TC +5) and as I started to spread, I decided "nah" I'll go to two hands instead since there was one other player there. He looked over at me, and we each ended up playing 2 hands there, and with more small cards off we spread to 3 hands each.

What I could not believe was that we played for an hour. He had a head start, but a good deal, a fair deal, a good deal, etc (mostly good deals, unlike the usual mostly negative deals) saw me end up over
9000$ to the good after playing for about 1.5 hours. After I got back to about +1200, I started playing black chip only, which was risky, but it worked.

Now the only problem I have is that they invited me back for a free weekend. Got to figure out what to tell my wife. :) Not that she would be surprised of course, she'd just be pissed that I didn't tell her beforehand as she would probably have taken off to go with us.:)

My question is this: Has anyone played at the Beau, being this ridiculous with spreading (I didn't spread 100-1200, I was typically going 25-100 to start, and then later 100-300 since the count was being so kind to the two of us. On the last deck we played together, the TC went up decently (+10) we spread to three hands each, every hand on the table got 10's including the dealer, which sucked the TC to below zero. I pushed back to leave, looked to my left and he was doing the same thing. We grinned, left, without ever saying anything.

I have gotten "attention" spreading 1-10 at the 10$ tables at times at the Beau. IE TC goes up significantly at a full table, have to spread quickly before the good cards get eaten, dealer give one of those "checks play" warnings, pit critter comes over and says "shuffle up" meaning it is time to leave. Never had a shuffle up. Never had any pit critter action at all except for when this guy first bought in, the pit boss called him by name and came over and chatted like "best friends" or something.

yes, that was probably my biggest win ever, particularly for 1.5 hours. But it was only made possible by playing with lots of money. Which for some reason, this particular dealer and pit crew did not seem to care about at all...

Yes I should have stayed longer. They even let me join the game 1/2 way through the deck "wonging in" with a sign there "no mid-shoe entry". Seems like all heat rules were off for the day?

fun, anyway...

That's why I used the subject "anti-heat". Could have said "cold" as in the "absence of heat" I suppose.

I hope to find such a reception next time I visit...

But somehow I doubt it.

Note this was _not_ in the high-limit area. In one of the pits closer to the front of the casino in fact...

gorilla player,

That is a rarity episode with counting, even progs can't usually pull that off.

The fellow you played with must have a 'GAMBLERS MYTH' that he created.

Been there, when the counts unusually optimal, but the cards flow against me.

Only advice or comment I have for the forum is:

DON'T LEAVE MOST OF THE TIME when the pit says "shuffle" or "Break the deck" to the dealer. In my oppinion it alerts the house that you are a counter, stay awhile like you DO NOT KNOW THEIR MEASURES against you. Maybe leave 10 - 30 minutes later. Getting up right after they shuffle is a give away tell that has little subtlety that may take away all doubts that you aren't a counter! Of course those small sawdust joints are the most paranoid. Revere said watch them.

And I, have the experience that even throwin in a LITTLE progression or a lot; the pit gets nervous like the staff will cook up their pets that week if you keep winning and changing your bets.

Of course maybe others have different veiws and experiences.

GREAT REPORT, envy your moment!

I don't leave on a shuffle-up unless it is in a heads-up game, which is my preferred way of playing. There it becomes pretty obvious who the "target" is, and I'd rather split and not be remembered, as opposed to sticking around, until someone says something.

I'm hardly a pro at this, although if there is any one thing I can do it is count the cards with no problems. I'm still learning ways to avoid any attention at all, with the main idea so far being to avoid huge obvious beat jumps. However, I like 2d games, and there head-to-head is about the only way to reasonably parlay bets to ramp them up without any undue attention. At a full 2d table, the count is up and down in a single round, so either you bet big now, or forever hold your peace. That is how the game yesterday turned out, except that "the heat was off" for reasons I don't understand.

I'll remember the dealer however. Very tall with some sort of european accent. Had the annoying habit of dealing from about chest-high, so that the cards spun like mad and never landed exactly where they should, often a foot are two apart. annoying when they only want you to use one hand and one card lands on each side of a fairly high stack of chips... But he seemed friendly enough. Didn't recognize the pit boss, although at shift change a female pit boss came on that I did remember from a couple of weeks back.

Here is what I would do:

I would return for the comp'd weekend, etc. BUT I would play, knowing for sure that I am being surveilled, to break even. In doing so, the Pit may get the EYE to "O.K." you so that they wil relax and let you play a little better on future trips.

Are you suggesting a weekend of mostly BS play? I can't really turn off the "counting" very easily as it is a habit, but I could certainly play BS most of the time, and do a few parlays when the count is high and a sort of "streak" is in action...

Also when really trying to "not win much" it is easier at $25 than at $100 where I was typically betting yesterday. Wonder if that would be another thing to make them go hmmm???

My brother reminded me of this when I told him about the Beau, in talking last night. About 3 years ago or so, after I had been counting for maybe a year, I went to a small casino while on a trip. I'm not sure now exactly where it was, since I have seen plenty of such small places over the years, but I believe this might have been in Michigan or Missouri.

In any case, the place only had a few BJ tables, and the only one that was open this particular afternoon was a $5 table. When I arrived there was already a black-chipper playing with a pretty sizable stack of chips in front of him. And a red-chipper with maybe a hundred bucks worth of chips. I set down and bought in for 400, asking for all greens.

This was a SD game... So we were getting about 2 rounds per shuffle, although the dealer would occasionally go three rounds. The black chipper was obviously counting, and spreading with the count. Spreading as much as $1000 but only playing one hand. The red-chipper appeared to have no method to his madness. Didn't play BS. Bet randomly from 1-10 red chips depending on something I could not divine. I was spreading 1-3 although I went to 1-4 once or twice. But with a SD game, only 1/2 of the rounds have any chance of being good, since the first round has a fresh deck...

I was doing pretty well, and was up about 800-1000 over my original buy-in, but green chips were getting low in the tray. On one particular hand, with a decent count in round 2 (+5) I got two aces, split, got a third and 4th ace. Got all small cards so the count was still in my favor. Dealer busted. Not enough green chips. Long delay while they order up some more green chips, get them delivered, sign them in, all that nonsense. The very next hand, the black chipper got two 9's against the dealer's 6 up, split and ended up with 4 split hands and again the dealer busted. Not enough black chips (why they didn't fill both who knows...) Another delay. But this time there was a consultation in the pit and before we had the next round dealt, the pit boss came over and said "OK. we know you guys are counting (he did not identify whether he meant all 3 of us, where obviously one was playing insanely or just the two of us betting black and green respectively). We don't want to run you off, but we are going to try to prevent your counting from working. I was set to leave as I thought he would tell the dealer to shuffle after every hand, removing most of my advantage except for the ability to modify BS if the count changed. But what he then said amazed me. He told the dealer to limit our spreads to 1-4. He looked at each of us and said "he can spread $100-$400, he can spread $25-$100 (me) and he can spread $5-$20"). I politely said "no problem here, let's play." :)

I don't know whether this guy was new and didn't realize that 1:4 was enough to wreck a 1d game, or whether he was told to limit us to 1:4 by someone else, or what. After about four hours, I ended up about $1200 ahead, although at one point I was over $2500 up.

So on two different occasions, I was (a) not backed off at all, and (b) given a "pseudo-backoff" because the spread limit did not change my betting at all.

I guess the bottom line is that perhaps this guy came from a shoe game where 1:4 would be enough of a limit to ensure the house edge, and he didn't realize that as the number of decks is reduced, the needed spread is reduced as well.

Wish I could find more of those...

By the way, for those in the "streak discussion" one thing I notice is that with neutral counts, I can play fairly even with the house, just playing pure BS. Small up and down swings usually. But when the count goes up, the swings go up wildly. IE when you bet 5 units, a single loss is a big fluctuation. That is where I notice most of my "wild swings". The part that hurts is that the swing goes negative, and before you can recover, the shoe has gone cold or it is time for a shuffle, starting the count and advantage back over at 0 and -.5 respectively...

You adjust your betting spread to the conditions so as to have no meaningful edge. E.g. Two deckers with good rules and >50% pen should be break even with a 3-1 spread. Bad rules or an unwavering 50% penetration will take a 4-1 spread. Better conditions will work with a 3-1 spread and possibly you ought to add "C.B.S." - counter basic strategy for cover. Of course, use ONLY Risk Averse indices for strategy deviation. I suspect that if you put in 4 hrs of low black play, you will be golden re: comps. At green, be prepared for a really long haul. Rest assured that you will be closely surveilled as you are accepting comp's.

I have never played at the B.R. but my best buddy was backed off with alacrity, playing their 2 deckers, betting $200 - $1,000 with $500 off the top.

On the 2d games, I have found 1-4 is ok so long as you are not obnoxious about it. IE bet 1, TC goes to 3, bet 4. Shuffle, back to 1. If you "flow" between 1-4, it seems to be ok, except for the oddball case I found yesterday of course.

I have also found in the shoe games that "flowing" draws much less attention, although it also affects the profit somewhat. IE if you are though 4 decks in a 6d game, and are betting the minimum in a neutral count, and the next round drops a bucket of small cards to take the TC to +6 or beyond, jumping to 10 units is a no-go for very long. In heads-up play, I can go 2-4-8-16 which is not so bad, since that 16 is a 1-16 spread, and turns my average spread into something closer to 1-12 than had I stopped at 12 outright. But in non-heads-up play, the TC comes and goes enough that where you should have bet 10, you only got to 4 units before many of those 10s drop out and I failed to bet the max when I had max advantage.

The obvious problem is that I would rather feel my way "up" and bump into a little heat, rather than starting off over the top and getting kicked out permanently although I don't know if that happens down there. However I have begun to recognize one or two "regulars" such that when they sit down I leave, as their arrival brings lots of shuffle-up activity to that table making it not worthwhile to play.

Whether they have a book, or whether they just know the guy, I have no idea. I also prefer to not play where someone else is getting a lot of scrutiny as that puts me too close and I'd rather be unknown, completely...

It was awhile back and was playing higher limit but at a smaller table which was beginning to fill up. They came up and did the usual: "Can we speak with you?", motioning me away from the table. I told them I was busy right now. They were not pleased. When I did get up there was security and a few floor"men?". I was told to stop playing. What losers they are.

I spoke on the phone with Mississippi gaming people and told them BR was excluding people only becuase they were winning. The agent took my complaint and appeared surprised that such a thing was happening.

at Beau Rivage. In fact, the hotter you are, the less heat or attention you will get. They are plenty sharp and their eye will catch you eventually. If you didn't get caught you either didn't play long enough for them to be sure, or they were very crowded, as you mentioned, and they simply didn't get around to you yet.

many players incorporate elements of progressions into their games as part of an overall cover system. It's important to keep in mind where the progression stops and the bet with the count element begins. When the count is high you must bet big regardless of the progression....when the count is low you must bet small regardless of the progression....Between 0 and +2 or -1 and +2 you can bet just about anything you want within a certain range.

I totally agree that as a counter or to make a higher earnings that's the form.

But if you've just made some big wins using the combo of counting and a minumum in the prog. zone betting style, bet the minimum when the count is high. It will not compute with them!

Talk about dioreinting the EYE up there, they will think your just a 'hunch player' or roller of some sort.

The pit's not as keen as the EYE people; they have catalogued your plays.

It would seem to me, based only on about 4 years of doing this, that betting small when the count is high is _really_ counter-productive. The count is not high very often. Squandering those opportunities completely by playing a small bet could turn into a serious problem..

Just kidding!

Last time I played the 2D game at BR (early September), the penetration was fixed by a notch cut into the discard tray. After shuffling, the dealer would place the cards in the discard rack, then use the notch in the rack to insert the cut card. The penetration was consistently 65/104 = 62.5%. Have they altered this procedure now?

Dog Hand

I have seen it both ways. The dealer I had that started this discussion was doing it by hand... He shuffled, passed the cut card to someone, let them cut, he did the cut as indicated, then manually inserted the cut card into the deck. As I said, sometimes it was about 50%, sometimes 75%. Everything about this particular "game" was different than what I had seen previously at the Beau...

You're fooling yourself.You will never be backed off, not because of your act but because your cover plays are so expensive that you're not an AP anymore.

Francis Salmon

I have a pretty good grasp of the statistics here...

First, we have a very thin "advantage". From almost nothing to maybe 2% overall, depending on how the cards (decks) run. There is not a lot of room for gross errors. You can certainly make an error here and there, and when the errors are with your small bet out, the effect is diminished. If your big bet is out, it hurts more.

Second, there is this ridiculous variance. That 2% (max) advantage turns into a wild roller-coaster when you start spreading your bets to max advantage. Now you are really putting most of your action on a very few hands, and a single win or loss will change things quickly. For example, on my last trip to the cost, I made almost $10,000 in less than two hours at a $25 table. I made over a grand with a deck that simply would not budge off of +/- 1 TC (2D). But I kept winning and winning with a $25 bet out and a good run of cards. I started off with $1000 of my money, saw it drop alarmingly with a very good TC, but with very bad cards, then saw it climb back at $25 per chunk almost non-stop, until I was over $1000 up. Then a big TC, up a lot more, then a string of $25 bets that were pretty even, then a big TC and down like a brick, etc... After an hour+ of that roller-coaster, I cycled back around to the powered "lift" on the coaster and went way up and left before I hit the top and went over. :)

That variance can be murder. When I first started and learned BS several years ago, I could walk into the MGM Grand, or Caesars' or whatever, and buy in at a $10 table and play all night long. I would eventually lose, but slowly, and would occasionally end up positive. Can't do that counting. Eventually I end up positive, but I need the "seatbelt fastened" because it can be a wild ride.

I worry when I raise my bet, because I try to use a "parlay"scheme, to provide some "cover" for what I'm doing. But at 1D (I no longer play as the 1D games I see are usually 6:5) or 2D, the count varies so quickly that it can go to +6 from 0 in one hand, and it is not so safe to go from $25 to $100+ in one jump very often. If I parlay, I have $50 out on the next hand, most of the 10's fall out, and while I won 50, I could have won 100. Now it is too late for the big bet. I am certain that hurts at times. It is better for the 6d games, but the neutral shoes last _soooo_ long, you get nickel-and-dimed to death before you get a decent count to play with an advantage.

I think any sort of cover that involved losing any advantage is suspect, when there is so little to lose. Of course, a pro might well have a better counting/betting system, and play for bigger stakes less often, or whatever. But speaking for me, playing $5, $10 and $25 tables, there isn't much "edge" to give up. I prefer to make "advantage plays" as cover (hitting 12 vs 4, surrendering, doubling A7 vs 2-6, etc. Most "scoff" at such plays, including PCs. I had one watching me when I doubled an A4 vs 4. He said "does the BS card say do that?" I said "No idea, my gut feeling was it was a good idea.." The next hand was A7 vs 2, and I doubled again. He said "I _know_ the BS card doesn't say do that." (mine did of course). He went away and I hardly ever saw him except for idle chat when things were slow.

That kind of "cover" is free. I try to watch for the "cut card" so that I don't have to play a big bet on the next shuffle, and I often cut my bet by 1/2 if I want to keep the big bet out for the last hand of a shuffle, and say something like "think I'll back off by 1/2 to see if this deal is going to be good or hostile..."

I think one key to "cover" is being "relaxed". Counting is not hard. And if you practice a lot at home, and _intentionally_ make a mistake here and there (ie RC is +2, just start it over at 0) to see what happens, you realize that it doesn't affect the overall scheme of things very much at all. After that, suddenly it is not so "tense", you don't focus on the cards so much it becomes obvious, and in my case, it lets me keep the count even more accurately without the extra tension because I have played so much at home I _know_ I can keep the count correctly without having to do anything special.

In short, I am going to "preserve" any advantage I have, as carefully as I can, with the worst-case being that I won't always be able to get a big bet out when I want. I should add I do _not_ "progress" my bet all the time. In shoe games, it works fine, particularly in the first half where the RC changes but the TC doesn't change very much. I jump my bet when it seems reasonable, just so I don't go up and down and up and down over successive hands to raise a big flag.

gorilla player:

"First, we have a very thin "advantage". From almost nothing to maybe 2% overall, depending on how the cards (decks) run. There is not a lot of room for gross errors."

Count Blackjacula:

Then from what I have read, I may be confused by the count percentage. Revere said, 'BASIC gave the player.005 against him. Or, the house has the edge at 50.5% and the players using BASIC has 49.5%.' Or wagering $1000 total in and hour would put the player in the $5 over the LONG HAUL.

Where I MAY BE in ERROR is that, ***somewhere in some BJ book I know I read that on SINGLE DECK the player could figure playing by the count, to have a percent edge for each PlUS COUNT. OR if the counts +5 a 5% edge, if +3 a 3% edge, if -2 NO EDGE(a lot less than even gamble).***

ARE MY FIGURES WRONG FOR single deck?

gorilla player;

"I prefer to make "advantage plays" as cover (hitting 12 vs 4,"

Count BlackJacula:

Revere's PLUS-MINUS advocates hitting 12 against 2, and SH(stand or hit) against 3, 4, 5, 6).

Gorilla Player:

".....doubling A7 vs 2-6, etc. Most "scoff" at such plays, including PCs."

Count Blackjacula:

Revere advocates doubling on A7 on 2-6 when the FIVES are Gone, and Doubling on 2 & 3 when the count is plus or LESS FIVES. So if Revere is correct, it is the master play under those conditions!

gorilla player:

"I had one watching me when I doubled an A4 vs 4. He said "does the BS card say do that?" I said "No idea, my gut feeling was it was a good idea.." The next hand was A7 vs 2, and I doubled again. He said "I _know_ the BS card doesn't say do that." (mine did of course). He went away and I hardly ever saw him except for idle chat when things were slow."

Count BlackJacula:

If he understood FIVECOUNT or PLUS MINUS he would have probly got on the phone!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gorilla Player, I think the reasoning why my mixing it up has been so successful for me despite my OFF PERCENTAGE error in understanding the count, is I play PERFECT BASIC, have things in my hand to count the FIVES, plus I utilize PLUS-MINUS to perfection. As the camera watches, they can see IF they look at FIVE and Plus-Minus that I'm Flawless. But I think since I use Revere Adv. Plus Minus, *YET DO NOT always bet with the count*, they think I'm just a *wild player*. But I try to keep my bets LOW on Neg. counts or spit up my bets to EAT CARDS; but I occasionally DO NOT as a deversionary tactic bet heavier during high counts.

It has possibly been the combo of Revere's stradegies and my mixed Progs that has kept my percentage above a 50% chance for me to win.
Because after about 6 years at doing this I am way ahead!

gorilla player:

"First, we have a very thin "advantage". From almost nothing to maybe 2% overall, depending on how the cards (decks) run. There is not a lot of room for gross errors."

Count Blackjacula:

Then from what I have read, I may be confused by the count percentage. Revere said, 'BASIC gave the player.005 against him. Or, the house has the edge at 50.5% and the players using BASIC has 49.5%.' Or wagering $1000 total in and hour would put the player in the $5 over the LONG HAUL.

Where I MAY BE in ERROR is that, ***somewhere in some BJ book I know I read that on SINGLE DECK the player could figure playing by the count, to have a percent edge for each PlUS COUNT. OR if the counts +5 a 5% edge, if +3 a 3% edge, if -2 NO EDGE(a lot less than even gamble).***

ARE MY FIGURES WRONG FOR single deck?

The problem is this. Each +1 on the TC is .5% advantage. But that only applies while that count holds. Over the entire deck, the TC will be -, = and + on average, bouncing around. If you bet big while the count is +, you take advantage of that. If you bet small when the count is -, you also take advantage of that by letting the house have a smaller bet to take its "percentage" off of.

I doubt you can beat 2% on average for a counter's advantage. Your "profit" can be ramped up if you increase your bet size of course...

gorilla player;

"I prefer to make "advantage plays" as cover (hitting 12 vs 4,"

Count BlackJacula:

Revere's PLUS-MINUS advocates hitting 12 against 2, and SH(stand or hit) against 3, 4, 5, 6).

Gorilla Player:

".....doubling A7 vs 2-6, etc. Most "scoff" at such plays, including PCs."

Count Blackjacula:

Revere advocates doubling on A7 on 2-6 when the FIVES are Gone, and Doubling on 2 & 3 when the count is plus or LESS FIVES. So if Revere is correct, it is the master play under those conditions!

That is my point. But there are not many counters around, we are talking about ploppies and dealers, some of which might know BS but some of which obviously do not even know that. Hitting a 12 against a 4 will bring howls, to be sure, particularly if you sit at 3rd base.

gorilla player:

"I had one watching me when I doubled an A4 vs 4. He said "does the BS card say do that?" I said "No idea, my gut feeling was it was a good idea.." The next hand was A7 vs 2, and I doubled again. He said "I _know_ the BS card doesn't say do that." (mine did of course). He went away and I hardly ever saw him except for idle chat when things were slow."

Count BlackJacula:

If he understood FIVECOUNT or PLUS MINUS he would have probly got on the phone!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gorilla Player, I think the reasoning why my mixing it up has been so successful for me despite my OFF PERCENTAGE error in understanding the count, is I play PERFECT BASIC, have things in my hand to count the FIVES, plus I utilize PLUS-MINUS to perfection. As the camera watches, they can see IF they look at FIVE and Plus-Minus that I'm Flawless. But I think since I use Revere Adv. Plus Minus, *YET DO NOT always bet with the count*, they think I'm just a *wild player*. But I try to keep my bets LOW on Neg. counts or spit up my bets to EAT CARDS; but I occasionally DO NOT as a deversionary tactic bet heavier during high counts.

It has possibly been the combo of Revere's stradegies and my mixed Progs that has kept my percentage above a 50% chance for me to win.
Because after about 6 years at doing this I am way ahead!

I would hope we are _all_ ahead overall. I am. Other counters that I know personally are. Obviously there are variance swings here and there, but I have not personally had one of "those variance swings" some talk about, where they don't win for months at a stretch. I hope I never do...