Am I right? SOS.

Am I right? SOS.

(-0.4% Game) I was playing this game before. Min $10.Max 1000. 8D,S17,DAS, Aces Spilt once and get 1 card only, 4 tims Spilt max for other cards. Pen 80%-85%

Now, I am playing this game. SAME RULE, but 6 decks. in High Roller Min.$50 Max $5000. No-mid shoe. Pen 80-88%

I have $30,000 in my bankroll.
0 or Neg i bet 50. (-3 or less i wll sit out)
+1 (adv 0.1%) I bet 75.
+2(0.6%) I bet 180.
+3 (1%) I bet 300.
+4 (1.5%) I bet 450. so on....

I was doing good on 50 dollar table last month, but I lost half back this month on 50 dollar tables. Am I taking too much risk? Is it playable? Or I shall go back to 10 or 15 dollars table, but Less Pen and More Decks??

Without doing a calculation

I didn't do a calculation, but my gut tells me that a $50 minimum bet with the game you describe is way too large. I also think your big bet at a +4 count should be more than 9 times your minimum bet.

OK. I did a quickie. Using a 1-12 optimum betting spread with Hi-Lo and penetration to 5 decks, I got a ROR of 22.53%. It should come as no surprise that you lost half your bankroll.

Curious

Except for what Boot's saying (RoR & Spread Problems), I assume you're a competent AP, and I'm curious at to 1 thing...

How many $50-tables are usually open in the highroller pit? If there's only 1 table open, I think you are in a disadvantage position, unless a joker or a $5,000 coupon or other goodies are offered by the casino.

Options of moving among lots of tables are perferable for a savvy AP.

Consider the following two scenarios:

(I) An 1 table scenario without any table to hop to:

Table 1 & only 1 in the highroller pit:
a) The dealer kills you no matter what you do.
b) The counts have remained negative shoes after shoes.
c) The dealer is a shuffle expert who seems to maintain crazy busting hands after hands for you. The crazy dude seems to always bust you first, and he just scoops your chips up without hitting any cards!

Without options of moving around, what are you going to do? You are not going home because it's probably a 3 hour-drive, right? So do you stay there until you get a bad beating financially & wonder what the hell has gone wrong?


(II) On the other hand, a scenario with lots of tables to move onto:

	Conditions		                              Your reaction 

1	Dealer kills you no matter what the counts are	U move to the next table. 

2	Dealer is too slow		U move to the next table. 

3	Dealer hustles you		U move to the next table. 

4	Counts went down south		U move to the next table. 

5	There are too many guys join in		U move to the next table. 

6	Questionable dealer is suspected		U move to the next table. 

7	Dealer appears to be too "lucky"		U move to the next table. 

8	Dealer preshuffles & is a showoff		U move to the next table. 

9	Dealer is personally hostile		U move to the next table. 

10	Dealer has real bad skunky bodily odor		U move to the next table. 

11	Whatever negative legit reasons �		U move to the next table. 

			

Of course, you may still lose your shirts with the above options, but at least you have a beter chance of doing well. It's like finding a soulmate. You will have a better chance of picking a good one if you get lots of candidates to choose from [or slept with first] :-).

more info and question

the High Roller Pit has 6 table Open most of the time.
Most dealers are friendly.
I lost half of my last month winning ( all came from 50 table)

Q1: +4 Suppose to 9X Min Bet? For speard ? What I did is +4(1.5%) I bet 30K X1.5% = $450 . 450 is 9 times Min 50. I shall Bet More or less?

Q2: $10(8decks,pen 80%) or $50 (6decks,88%) which game is better for my 25,000 Bankroll? (highroller less player)

Q3: Spread: $50 speard might too small. but at $10 table. base on my bankroll. I am afraid to BET 200,300,450 often. This Casino is my home base. ONLY 15 minutes drive. 25K bankroll, at 10 dollar home base table, how much i shall bet on +1,2,3,4,5,etc?

Q4: what is ROR and what ROR for?

thank you guys.

The bottom line...

... is that with only 1-9 spread you MUST avoid all minus counts. zg

respondeat superior

A couple of problems I notice with these variables. The first is with the no mid shoe rule. I thought you are not allowed to jump in and out. You suggest the opposite. Second, it appears you are betting full-Kelly, which is too dangerous for your size bankroll. Try reducing it half-Kelly. You still retain about 75% of full-Kelly earning power with less than half the risk. Doesn't get any better than that.

no-mid shoe,but BET-LINE is allow (nt)