After reading some of the ploppy "this is what I do, and it works for me, I know it doesn't make sense, I know it don't agree with math, but my *personal* observation is IT WORKS FOR ME!" -- consider the following:
3 players go to to Las Vegas 4 times a year. Every three months, like clock work, they are in Vegas for a full 5 days. They play blackjack a full 8 hours a day every day they are in Vegas. So that is 5 days in Vegas x 8 hours a day = 40 hour sessions -- 4 times a year. And they do this, without fail, for 5 years.
In other words, these are "big dog" real experienced players. They have been playing for years. Putting in the long hours required to win. No recreational players, these guys. 5 long years of putting in 40 hour weeks of blackjack play. 8 hours a day, 5 days at a time, 4 times a year, for 5 years! THESE GUYS KNOW BLACKJACK -- just ask 'em.
Now consider they have been playing a good double deck game all this time, getting in about 75 hands an hour, at a -.26% edge game, stick to strict basic strategy, FLAT BET, and they only thing different is THEY ALL WEAR RED HATS!
Well, thanks to the tremendous STANDARD DEVIATION in the game of blackjack, one of these "red hat" players is going to have come out ahead after all that. 1 out of 3 will still be a winner, flat betting after 5 years!
And what will this player attribute to his winning? Well, let's ask him:
SOTSOG: After all these years, why are you ahead at blackjack, when everybody else seems to be a long time loser?
RED HAT PLOPPIE: Well, sotsoggy old boy, it's because I wear a red hat. You should have listened to me a couple of years ago when I told you wearing a red hat is what makes you a winner at blackjack.
SOTSOG: Is that it you think? Wearing a red hat is all you need to do?
RED HAT PLOPPIE: Well, no, of course not. Ya gotta know your basic strategy of course. And ya gots to know how to win. And you should leave a table when it turns cold, and only play at a hot table, and watch out for them hot dealers! But once you learn them skills, all ya gotta do is wear a red hat. I know the math boys say that ain't so, BUT IT WORKS FOR ME!
So when you hear a wild ass theory about blackjack remember:
(5 years) x (4 times a year) x (5 days) x (8 hours) x (75 hands an hour) = 60,000 hands = 29% chance of still being ahead!
In other words:
"Believe me son, I been doing this for years, and I have never lost."
translated means
"I haven't played long enough to overcome standard deviation -- give me a few more years, and there is no reason why this will work for you at all."