Advantages of BS, Card-Counting, and more...

Ok, a question for anyone who knows the answer....

(all figures are VERY much rounded off)

we all know playing these gives a certain advantage :
BASIC STRATEGY -1%
CARD-COUNTING +2%

but what about if BASIC STRATEGY was re-calculated after EVERY hand, with new ways to play, would the advantage of basic strategy continue to rise throughout the shoe???

example... -1% is off the top the shoe
how about half way through 6 decks? (3 decks)
how about 4 decks deep?? (6-deck shoe)

i have thought about this myself this is why i come here

the advantage is constant throughout the shoe. This may be a difficult concept.

However, consider an uncut shoe where the advantage is -1% for the first hand. This is the result of calculating all the possible combinations for that first hand. If I remove the last five decks from the shoe, the advantage for that first hand is still the same, right?

What if I cut the shoe in half and placed the three decks cut at the end? The advantage the first hand is the same as if I had never cut the shoe, right? What if I instead removed those three decks? How does that change the advantage?

Panama Rick, your exactly right!! I understood what you said.

But then again....thats like saying to ANYONE who comes to this site, that card counting dosnt work!! lol

i get what you mean.....
card-counting would have NO advantage as well, if the deck's true count stayed around zero(0). But it dosnt, it fluctuates!! And thats how card-counters get the advantage....but betting big when the tide turns in there favour...

im asking the same about "Basic Strategy"
Lets say the Hi-Lo true count was +12..
that would assume the shoe IS NOT in order, its randomly shuffled (as usual)....and we recalculated a "Basic Strategy" chart as this point.

What would our advantage be now with this new BS chart?????? Still -1%??

They create a new "basic strategy" for each different true count situation.

so your saying....

all the indices out there, tell the counter, EVERY SINGLE CHANGE IN BS
i am certain they do not....

They only show some of the big changed which are most important at certain counts (hence why there are heaps of different indice charts available).

Im trying to find out, if someone knows....is there a HUGE advantage or not if you re-calculate "Basic Strategy" after every hand.

...the changes which are actually IMPORTANT.

First of all your numbers are off. You shouldn't be playing any game with at -1% advantage. That's too much to over come. Most multiple deck average rule games are only half that. Secondly, I wish a counter's edge was 2%. I guess it was at one time (before my time) but now for just strictly counting, you are doing well at 1%.

Now I am confused about your question. Are you trying to figure out if you can over come the house edge by only playing perfect strategy for each hand and count rather than altering bet sizes?

Your advantage comes about by changing your play based on when a true count is reached. If you know when to alter basic strategy, then you must be counting. Your % will increase by adjusting basic strat. alone, but will increase more if you increase your bets when you have an advantage. Unless you're part of a team that calls you in only in plus counts, and u don't want the attention of bet variance, you should adjust your bets as well. I also agree w/ Kewl. Most BS play will have you -0.5%. Counting, adjusting BS via indices, and bet variance will get you to ~ +1%.

There is a slight advantage to playing vs less decks w/ only BS, but there are also rules variance that may change thes #s slightly.

From Blackjack Forum

# Decks Advantage (disadvantage) using BS
1 +0.02%
2 -0.31%
3 -0.43%
4 -0.48%
5 -0.52%
6 -0.54%
7 -0.55%
8 -0.57%

Although BS edges vs. numbers of decks shuffled are, more or less, what you have quoted, that wasn't dx2's question.

He wanted to know if BS edge changed -- or if BS itself changed -- as a multi-deck shoe is depleted. The answer to that question is no, provided that a certain number of rounds are designated to be dealt, as opposed to dealing to a stop-card, where the notion of cut-card effect plays a role.

Don

Basic Strategy would be do not play blackjack games that have a 1% house edge off the top. You should be looking for games that are below .6% house edge and even that is pushing it. Anything much above that is a futile waste of time and money for everyone and playing these crapjack variations only serves to enrich the casino (and drain your bankroll) at a disgusting rate of speed.

This would mean avoiding all 6:5 games and all shoe games where you cannot double after split.

If you are going to play games that awful, you might as well shoot dice.

dx2,

I think what you're asking is this:

If we have a 6D shoe, and after the first deck is played we've seen 20 X's, 3 9's, 2 8's, 4 7's, 5 6's, 8 5's, 2 4's, 1 3's, 5 2's, and 2 Aces, what would NOW be the correct Basic Strategy to play? In other words, what's the correct B.S. for a (now) 5D shoe containing 76 X's, 21 9's, 22 8's, 20 7's, 19 6's, 16 5's, 22 4's, 23 3's, 19 2's, and 22 Aces, and what is the new EV? Then, if on the next round we see 3 X's and an Ace (we get BJ vs. the dealer's 20), what's the NEW correct B.S. for a 256-card pack containing 73 X's, 21 9's, 22 8's, 20 7's, 19 6's, 16 5's, 22 4's, 23 3's, 19 2's, and 21 Aces, and what is the new EV?

Is that what you're trying to find?

If so, the answer can indeed be calculated. This is the "perfect play" problem, and is in fact how BJ computers (now illegal to use in casinos) played the game. Clearly, software has been written that will perform these calculations. I seem to recall SOMEONE posting a link to a program that would do these calculations for any specified subset of cards, but I cannot find the post at the moment. Perhaps someone else recalls the post.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca_web.exe

Thankyou DogHand and Don Schlesinger,
you two were the only ones who really understood my question!! (its good to know there are some people who think OUTSIDE THE BOX, and are not set in there ways)

The perfect play is the word i was looking for.

i guess my question can only be answered, if i give an example of EXACTLY what cards are left in the shoe.

That link will give me a few examples.

DogHand....do you think the bj computer (that used perfect play) , would give a much higher advantage than say someone using the Uston APC count???

No, we're not missing the point. You don't get to define BS any way you please. BS is the best way to play a hand given knowledge of nothing but your cards and the dealer's upcard. You aren't allowed to have knowledge of other cards that have been previously depleted from the deck. Taking them into account is called card counting. :-)

So, the minute you talk about a deck whose composition has been altered, how do you get to know that it has been altered without counting cards?

Don

Don Schlesinger,

I was picturing dx2 as sitting at a computer playing online BJ. In that case, he could enter the remaining deck composition (into a program like the one to which OldCootFromVA linked) and know his EV on the upcoming hand, in order to vary his bets according to this value. Then, he could enter the actual hand and dealer's upcard, and learn the highest-EV play, given the current deck composition.

To attempt to do this in one's head in a brick-and-mortar casino is, of course, unpractical for anyone less talented than our newest poster, "perfectbs aka bullshit", of course ;-)

However, I agree that calling this calculation "B.S." is, indeed, an incorrect use of the term.

Now, get back to writing BJA4 ;-)

Dog Hand

You may want to take a look at Griffin's Theory of Blackjack and peruse his discussions on perfect play. The fact of the matter is that it doesn't have a major effect until the number of cards left in play becomes quite small; smaller than you will find in any games today. With shoe games that are rarely dealt to more than the 75% level, it becomes negligible over the standard basic strategy. Of course, perfect play would require a person to keep perfect track of the cards that have been dealt and the cards remaining in play - in other words, one must count the cards to play perfect basic strategy on each hand.

Even then, in the shoe games available today, perfect strategy alone will not overcome the house adantage. Bet variation is where the money is.