Active Bankroll Required?

How much active bankroll do I need?
H17,2d,DAS, RSA,spread $25-500, pen avg 1.1/2.0 w/ an occasional 1.2 to 1.3.
Please no soapboxes about greed. This is in Missouri. The casinos are relatively counter tolerant and the game is not that good to begin.
This is in Missouri where there is a $500 buy in max/2hr. So not having the chips in hand can mean not able to double 11 vs 6, etc.
How much active bankroll do I need so that I have a <5% chance of getting wiped out w/ this spread? I have been keeping about 2-4 grand in chips and it has not been enough. This active bankroll equates to giving the casino an interest free loan so I cannot justify 10-20 grand.

Describe your spread in more detail. Are you only going to play in positive counts (which would significantly reduce RoR but is probably not practical for 2 deck games at your bet level) or play all.
What count are you using?
At what true count do you plan to be betting max?

My guestimate, assuming that you will play all, use a 1 level count, and reach $500 at a true count of 6, is $30000.

No Midshoe entry so in general I must sit through most hands. I back wong out of about one of every five or so negative decks (try to make at a really bad negative count), but in general I play most hands positive and negative. Have to because sometmes heads up and the ploppies will have a fit if I do it too often.

Basic HI-Lo count.
Play variations only the illustrious 18 and only split 10s rarely.
General bet scheme. I do not ever make a true count coversion but I am aware of the difference in running count early vs late in the deck.
Bet spread would correspond w/
Max bet $500 at a true count of about >7.
True count >4 about 200-250.

I can't do 30 grand in chips!!!

Because I already had sim info on a Hi Lo with all the playing deviations (as opposed to the I 18), I used that. Based on an H17, DAS game with penetration at 62/104 cards, betting $25 at TC +1 and less, $50 at TC +2, $75 at +3, $100 at +4, $200 at +5, $250 at +6, $375 at +7, $500 at +8 and above:

To achieve a LIFETIME 5% Risk of Ruin, you'll need $22,425.

For a weekend trip of 20 hours, bringing $5000 will give you a trip risk of ruin (odds of losing that $5000 during the trip) of 19.34%.
Bringing $6000 will lower your trip RoR to 12.51%. Bringing $7000 will lower it to 7.79%
Bringing $7900 will lower it to 4.91%.

Hope that helps.

Thanks.
That does help. My sessions are actually shorter- 2 to 4 hrs- but I expect the ROR is not all that higher in 20 hrs vs 4. I will have to live w/ an approx. ROR of about 20%.

Since your handle is Midwest Mogul, do you play Missouri casinos?

Assuming the conditions that I outlined previously, you'll have a 1.07% chance of losing $5000 within 4 hours. 3.95% of losing $4000 in 4 hours. Jumps to 11.79% at $3000. 28.83% at $2000.

I have played Missouri casinos, but have not visited them in some time. The Harrah's properties had the best conditions when I was there.

I saw your insightfull calculation of risk of ruin.. If it is not to much to ask, I was wondering if you could let me know how much I need to bring to the table. I play 8 deck shoes, dealer stands on soft 17, re-split acec.. dd on any 2 cards...
I use the alpha count... I use the "wonging" technique and jump in when i get a true count of +3 or more after about 3 decks have been played... I was placing $100 flat bets, but have now decided to move to $25 and let it ride if the count remains strong doublind , even tripling if very strong...

I know you may be to busy... but any insight would be greatly appreciated.....

That makes me feel better. I must have had some really bad runs because it seems as if I was getting whacked about one out of every 5 visits.

I used to play Harrahs and the 2 deck pen is by far the best although the no DAS, D8-11, H17 is otherwise very bad. I did get put on a max bet of 2 hands at $50/ hand but only after a lot of hours where won many times my expected value and used an obscene bet spread. So I play the other joints. I do not think Argosy or Isle will back anyone off.
I think Ameristar & Argosy have better 6 deck games- less crowded tables and better pen.