A question for the veterans

I am a little new to the game. I have read books from Arnold Snyder, Lance Humbert, Frank Scobelet and John Patrick. I plan to read books from Carlson and Wong very soon. My question, I have been using the "alfa" system I believe that is the name.. it counts a +1 for the 2,3,4,5,6,7, and a -1 for 9, 10, J , Q , K, A... the 8 is a zero.... I have been going to a government owned casino's where the heat is non existant.. I sit back "wonging" and jump in when I got a positive 6-7 count... if I win and the count is the same or has climbed I let it ride or pull back half depending at how well I am up or down.... I practise a very disciplined money mangement approach.. I place $100 bets and often leave right after winning the first 2 hands... my hope is to build my bankroll sufficiently enough to start placing $200 and $300 bets.. where simply one bet is a good days pay .. ie: walking in placing a $200-$300 bet and walking right out not bad for a days pay.. compared to what I make... I have spent countles hours practicing with the same eight decks played at the casino.....

My question is, is there more I should be doing... Have been just lucky... as well I have a difficult time in deciding went to leave, I constantly battle myself.. I have been lucky enough to come back from jumping in for single bets losing 5 in a row and battling back watching the tables one at a time to be back up 1 or 2 hundred before leaving....

What should I set my limit at for loses in a row before leaving $1000 or $2000... remember I sit back and jump in for a single $100 bet when my count is up at about 6, 7 , 10 and at least half the deck has been played... if I lose the bet I move on to the next table... true that I spend most of my time watching but the system has worked well so far.. but is it simply luck....

comments from those who have been at the battle for some time would mean a great deal...

thank-you

you have a HUGE bankroll. Also,leaving a game with a positive deck left is not wise my friend. You certainly have come to the right place though to have your questions answered. The experienced players and knowledgable number crunchers will give you the correct advice. Listen to them, they know what they are talking about.

Good cards Frenchman

There is no reason for parlays, stops, etc, unless you are trying to evade skill detection. When there is no heat you make bets based on your advantage. You increase your bet when your edge increases. You decrease your bet when your edge decreases. You walk away only when you have no edge. Forget the wins and losses. Money management generally causes people to get in fewer hours when they have good conditions and more hours in less favorable conditions. If you closely examine almost any money management system you will see how that comes about. It will cost you money in the long run.

Decide in advance how much money you can lose before you must reevaluate bet sizes. Put this amount in your pocket and don't consider changing your strategy until you lose it. This should be based on your total bankroll and not how you are doing for the trip.

Money management if voodoo that will slow the growth rate of your bankroll. It will not cause you to lose since you are generally playing with an edge. But you have the seeds of superstition in your head and they should be crushed before they blossom into who knows what.

First, since you are only using the running count and not dividing by the number of decks remaining, consider waiting until a higher count before placing your bets. If your Alpha count (also known as the Silver Fox count) gets to +12 or so, you should have a decent advantage (0.5% or higher, which means you will win 50 cents for each $100 bet). Note, you will not expect to win a hundred dollars just because you bet a hundred. This is why your stop win limit will hurt you. If you quite after a couple of bets, you will only be making $1 a day using the numbers above. Also, at your running count (+6), playing an eight deck game, I believe you will be at a slight disadvantage on average.
Finally, if you like the silver fox (aka alpha) system, I suggest you buy it (go to www.silverfoxbj.com) and purchase his book. However, I would suggest you buy Knockout Blackjack, see catalog at left, if you do not want to do division at the table and divide by the number of decks remaining.
In case you don't know, eight deck games are horrible. You need to play very well to beat them.
Good cards.

Everything everyone has said so far I agree with, with the exception that I think Money Management CAN be a useful tool to the beginner. I don't see any valid reason to leave after the winning the first two hands (you don't get too many postiive situations, so you need to make the most of them), but if you're losing during those positive situations, the stress of losing many hands in a row leads to counting errors, playing errors, bad judgement about table conditions, etc., and I find it's a good thing to have an predetermined exit point, if only to give yourself a chance to get your head back together, lick your wounds, and regain your spirit. I don't advocate leaving in a postive deck situation, but if you're taking a pounding and you're stressing about reaching into your wallet for that next $100, then maybe it's time to take a break. Seems as if the only criteria for leaving would be when the count goes negative, or the stress is taking a toll on your playing ability.

Hello Frenchy,
You indicated you felt I was in for an ass chewin, unless I had a large bankroll... can you tell me why you think that is.. your insight is greatly appreciated....

First lose all your money. Then go home and get your head together. The situation you are talking about is precisely the type of training you need to become a good player. This is combat training. This is something you can't duplicate at home. The ability to keep your cool during huge swings is very important. Getting hooked on money management is something that you will never be able to cure yourself of and it will cost you big time in the long run.

Money management has nothing to do with winning. You are either in a good game or you are not. If you are in a good game, play til something important, like going broke, or the stink eye, occurs. You will learn from experience how long you can sit there and play like you know what you are doing. Better to get that experience in a good game. Don't pass them up: they are getting harder to find all the time.

The idea is to place the bigger money on the table when you have an advantage. The fact that you just lost your ass in the last 20 minutes has nothing to do with it. Remember, the cards have no memory. You will delay getting your ass back if you walk away from a good game due to some money management theory.

And don't spend a lot of time (read: any) reading crap written by John Patrick. He writes for the suckers.

good luck,
adhoc

I still remember when I started in red...I don't think I have ever been so frustrated in my life...but xtremely valuable...a couple of hundred (logged) hours making every possible mistake and learning the swings and the "flow" of the game without loosing too much money...knowing that helps you survive and play according to the book on higher levels even when the devil himself seems to be dealing the cards...

/g

Whatever you do, don't use John Patrick's playing strategy. It is just plain wrong. Use the basic strategy from one of your other books.

Also, a session loss limit of $1000 or $2000 is way too small for your betting levels. Your idea of being able to net a few hundred dollers every day with just a few big bets is not realistic. Sooner or later, probably sooner, you will hit a downswing of several thousans dollars. If you are not prepared for this, you are betting way too big. Quitting after you lose $1000 or $2000 dollars will not prevent it. It will only prolong the agony. Your bet size should not be based on whether you won or lost the last hands, or whether you are up or down for the day. Your bet size should be based on advantage, bonkroll and risk of ruin.

do have memory in BlackJack. Craps is different as one roll has nothing to do with the next. However, Blackjack one hand directly influences the next hand, thus, memory.

Your betting style is called Wonging and I use the word "double" in the heading for this submission, to emphatically suggest that you purchase one of Stanford Wong's books...I have read many other books and his chapter entitled "Finer Points" in Professional Blackjack, is worth the price of the entire book and then some.

Somewhere in that book, you will find him saying to forget about your $300. bet...Look upon it as a $3. profit if you have a 1% advantage...If you have the time and patience to wait until the count is +5 before you start to bet, you would have a 2% advantage and that would make your $300. wager worth $6.

As Stanford says, that will take much of the excitement out of the standard deviations that you will experience, but it will put you on the right track for approaching this game with the right mental attitude.

Don't you dare play full time at an 8 deck shoe, except as a wonger, they will kill you.

It does not help you at all if you set a limit of losses in a row, the propability of winning or losing the next depends only on the count (if you are not cheated). A stop loss per session or a goal after that you go home will have no effect on your long term run in an honrable game. Unfortunately a lot of cheating is done in a lot of casinos, including the biggest international known casinos of Las Vegas. But here the only advice can be: never play against a cheating dealer. Unfortunately it is dificult to detect a dealer cheating.

that is not the sense in which the phrase was used. Perhaps I could have been more precise, but I doubt that anyone had any doubt as to what I was saying.

Of course, the intent of my communication in this regard was that the cards do not know, nor do they care, how you are doing in terms of winning or losing. In other words, there is no voodoo doll full of pins with your name on it. If the game remains good, stay with it.

cheers,
adhoc

against you LOL! Better be carefull, I'm watching you :-) I'm just looking for one mistake and I'll be all over you!

OK! OK! I took my lithium, I feel better now!

After all, it's nice to know that I have someone to watch over me. :-)

regards,
adhoc

If I understand your post correctly,most of your bets are a single $100.00 unit with an occasional 11/2 to 2 unit bet.This is close to flat betting. Wonging in and playing with a small advantage is fine until you hit those [why me Lord?] long ass losing streaks.In the long run, you WILL lose more hands than you win even with a small adv.If you play enough hands negative fluctuations WILL happen,just as Midwest Mogul states in his post.That is why your bankroll should be very large.Please do not take my "ass chewin" comment as an insult.It had a two pronged meaning.

1)Be prepared for some well meaning lectures on your style of play.
2)Be prepared for some casino ass chewin unless you can weather the downturns.

I would like to see some number guys give you bankroll figures for your spread, in order to keep your R.O.R.at a comfortable level.

Frenchman

x

Your bet size should be based on advantage, bonkroll and risk of ruin.

Bonkroll?

I rather like it. :-)