A math question

What would be the EV for the following scenario?

Double Deck
60% Penetration
Hit Soft 17
Double Any Two Cards
Double after splitting
Spread 1 to 4 chips
Bet 2 chips at plus 2 actual count
Bet 4 chips at plus 4 actual count
Cease doubling and splitting at running count of minus 4
Hit 12 against 2 or 3 at running count of minus 1
Hit 12 against 6 at running count of minus 4
Stay on 16 against 10 at running count of plus 1
Split 2's, 3's, 6's thru 9's against 2 thru 7

Play 30 hours a week for 10 weeks, average 75 hands per hour

If there is software that will give me the answer should appreciate getting the source.

Thanks to all that wish to take it on.

"If there is software that will give me the answer should appreciate getting the source."

How does anybody know that much about the game and not know the answer to the question? Is this software shilling?

Have never purchased software for blackjack. I am aware that software exists for blackjack but have no idea concerning the depth of calculations available.

Go to qfit.com. The reason for suspicion is that the owner of the software refuses to sell here because of a dispute, but this is the best place to advertise the products.

It just seemed funny that you would know so much about blackjack but did not know where the best software is.

Good luck.

Free meaning it won't cost you $. It does require some setup though. You'll actually have to read the instructions to run the simulation to your specifications.

On the plus side it is open source software, so you can modify it. You won't have to modify the program to get the answer to your question. Although you will have to setup a strategy file, (in the instructions.)

When you run your sim be sure to run a large number of rounds i.e. in the millions.

Powersim can be found at http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/
Go down near the bottom of the page on the left hand side. You will find Powersim information there.

From the strategy principles you listed, only the one about 16v10 is correct. All the others have some kind of flaw.Example:One doesn't split the 9/9 v 7!
There is no point in making an evaluation before you fix these mistakes.

Francis Salmon

Will go and check it out ..

The split 9's against a 7 was a typo.

The rest of the strategy posting may not be optimal but it is comfortably working.

After many years of successfully playing blackjack non-professionally I came to the realization that it is about knowing how to play and being allowed to play. Thankfully I have been able to achieve that balance.

Are you afraid they will bar you if you play correctly? Very unlikely! I just want to tell you that even in negative counts, it's a huge mistake not to double on 10 or 11 against weak cards, not to talk about splitting Aces or Eights. If you want to become a winning player, you have to revise this completely.

Francis Salmon

The reason for my original post was because I have been tracking my play lately and the results seem high. Wanted a software program to try and determine just how much too high.

Until proven otherwise, in actual play, I will stick with what I am doing. 300 hours of play has produced 538 units @ 25 dollars each.

Have played enough years and been through enough blackjack wars to know that "the big dump" lies ahead.

Have made a few changes to my game that I hope have been positive for increasing my expected win rate.

Of course it does. But all will agree, no one knows HOW FAR ahead. I hope for your sake it is in the distant future.

"I never think of the future - it comes soon enough."
Albert Einstein

Good luck,
Jay Cobbson

A "correction" doesn't always come in the form of a losing streak. Several years ago I started out the year on a great roll. I was playing a game were the EV was roughly 2 units per hour. After 100 hours I was ahead 800+ units, more than 4 times the EV. Thinking that a big downturn was due, I cut my unit in half so that I would only drop half as much during the losing period. Guess what? That down slide never happened. Over the next 700 hours I won another 800 units. This put me ahead 1600 units after 800 hours, almost the exact EV of the game I was playing. Problem was that last 800 units won were only half the size, so basically I only won 400 units. Cutting my unit in half cost me 400 units!

I also think that with this betting schedule 20$/h is the maximum he can hope for.
But about 15 of his 75 rounds per hour will be played with very negative counts where his reluctance to double will cost him a few dollars more than necessary.My guess is that his real hourly expectation is somewhere between $10 and $15.

Francis Salmon

The cards are incapable of knowing you are "due" to lose.