A dreaded progression question (Please Read)...

Hopefully someone can clarify for me what I am confused about.

I created a spreadsheet first with all combinations of 4 hands with each hand possibly being a win or a loss, no pushes, doubles, splits, or BJ's, for a total of 16 different scenarios.

Then I simulated a simple progression I use for each of those scenarios, and as expected, the sum of all scenarios summed up equalled 0. No suprises here based on the 50/50 thing I was simulating.

The next step is what caused me great confusion. I wanted to compare this approach to flat betting, but I made my flat bet for each scenario equal to the average of the 4 bets I would have played over the course of those 4 bets. Meaning, for each scenario, the average flat bet could be different. I took the 4 progression bets, added them up, and divided by 4 to get my flat bet.

I know that if I entered the same flat bet for each bet for every scenario, my sum would be equal to 0. The problem is using my average for the 4 bets as the flat bet for each scenario resulted in a total of -$120 total for the sum of all 16 scenarios. (My base unit used in the progression was $10, and I would increase by $10 on a loss, decrease by $10 on a win, and stay at $10 on consecutive wins if already at that level).

Can anyone explain to me what is going on here? I have verified my calculations and formulas 3 times and can not come up with anything. Maybe someone can duplicate the above scenario, or someone already knows the answer. I apologize to those I need to, but the progressions I have played have worked and continue to work for me year after year. I know this does not duplicate real BJ play, but I expected the sum of all bets to be 0 for both situations, and need help thinking about this.

If I made a mathematical error that I did not catch, I apologize for that also. I will probably find it the moment I hit the "Post Message" button.

Dave

in addition to posting your progression question here, you might want to try www.bjmath.com

While progressions in general receive a welcome normally reserved for anthrax, perhaps you'll receive an additional viewpoint at that site. If nothing more, you will find a wealth of good stuff there, including colored BS charts for the type of game you might play.

I trust you read my response to you below (under "Dave"), relating to a different topic.

I sure did, and want to thank everyone for all of the positive advice given to me. I have read and reread, and plan to re-read even more and focus on some of the key points people bring up around here in response to my posts and the posts of others.

Thanks again.

Dave

You are increasing the bet with each loss. Therefore, sequences with many losses have higher average bets.

I'm not sure what you are trying to show with this calculation.

In the long run, your progression should perform the same as flat betting with the same total action. Four hands is not the long run.

> I expected the sum of all bets to be 0 for both situations, and need help thinking about this.

If you still think so, try explaining why you expect this and maybe someone can point out your error.

Aren't you the one who's thinking about quiting a 60K job to become a pro. Is that pro-gressionest? I'm beginning to think you just enjoy gambling and have a serious problem. I doubt if you could barely count cards. Progressions dont work,get help before you go broke.

regarding results contrary to what I expected. If you feel compelled to answer a question with only a question, don't bother responding. Your answer is of absolutely NO assistance in helping me understand what I observed.

On a side note, everything I post is sincere, meaning if you read back, I claimed that I don't count cards, play poker, or sports bet. These are all things I know a person can be successful at. So, when you say "I doubt if you could barely count cards", you are incorrecect because I can barely count cards. I just wanted other peoples point of view, and appreciated the advice given.

As for a 60K / year job. I want more and always will.

Progressionists will make claims that in this specific situation or that situation a progression works better than flat betting. The response is always that you have to take all situations into consideration for a given number of hands and not just one example. I took 4 as my number and expected both results to be 0. Based on this, I believe if I took 20 hands, and all combinations of those 20 hands, and did the same thing, it should also be 0, but I expect it to be different, and do not understand the basic concept as to why. Help me here and I will stop asking stupid questions.

Ace:

Are you doing some money?? If so, then take the money and don�t think more. If you are trying to find some type of justification(math) for you betting methods, you are losing your time. There is not at all.

Personally, I can't undestand the angry comments against the progressionit; as though the counters are some type of JEDI or super-smart people. are those people all rich???

If work for you, then work.
Sorry thet a i can help you with you main question.

By the way: Are you doing some money???? under what conditions???

saludos

Using your progression and running through all the 4 hand combinations, you have made 16 x 4 (64) bets. Some of these bets are $10, some are more, depending on if you lost or won the previous hand.

Add the amounts of all 64 bets together. Divide this sum by 64. This is the average amount bet produced by your progression.

Use this average amount as your flat bet and it will sum up to ---

ZERO!!!

After you have proved this, you might want to get out your ruler and prove to yourself that the sum of the squares of two sides of a triangle is equal to the hypotenuse. (a2 + b2 = c2). This is another basic mathematical fact that people seem to blindly accept without directly measuring. ;>)

I just did exactly what you said but for 3 hands (coin flips) not 4. Comes out to zero. I guarantee you are making a simple math error. I'd have to charge you $40 an hour to write up the analysis for 4 hands. That's real grunt work! ;-)

However, if you write out your analysis with every bet sequence, and the $$ amount result, I will comment for free!

For example: WLWL, bets should be: $10, $10, $20, $10. result: +$10
The real kicker comes at the end: LLLL, which should lose $100.

ETF

Hi Ace,maybe you can remember to me from
a special board.
Could you please give me your mailing address?
My address is above.
Regards Rainer

Based on he calculated it, the average bet was higher on sequences with more losses. As a result, the total was negative.

For instance, WWWW has an average bet of $10, for a total of $40, while LLLL has an average bet of $25, for a total of -$100.

The average bet of your progression over 4 hands should be calculated as SOTSOG described below. Then you are justified in comparing with flat betting the average amount.

The average bet over 4 particular hands won't tell you anything. As you said "you have to take all situations into consideration".

Hope that helps. As Wildcard said, over at bjmath.com they're more willing to help progressionists with their problems, er, I mean questions.

I betcha a black chip. Based on the history of your posts, I'd trust you for it.

I understand the loss sequence comes out higher than the mirror win sequence. Doesn't matter. He's adding up all 16 (equiprobable, mutually exclusive) sequences. It must add to zero.

ETF

perfectly. In both of these situations the amount lost at the average was identical to the amount lost using the progression specified. Example. LLLL=10,20,30,40 for A LOSS OF $100, OR with $25 average also 4 losses = -$100. The same is true for WWWW =10,10,10,10 for both situations, because your average is also $10, for a loss in both situations of $40.

I expected this to carry through for all situations. Thats all. You say it won't, but your 2 examples show the same.

Thanks,

Dave

Don't give this out to anyone <---- Laugh, HAHAHA

Ace_01440@yahoo.com

I will respond in as timely a manner as I can. I expect your questions will require very drawn out answers, and my typing "ist nicht zu gut"

Dave

In both of these situations the amount lost at the average was identical to the amount lost using the progression specified. Example. LLLL=10,20,30,40 for A LOSS OF $100, OR with $25 average also 4 losses = -$100. The same is true for WWWW =10,10,10,10 for both situations, because your average is also $10, for a loss in both situations of $40.

I expected this to carry through for all situations. Thats all. You say it won't, but your 2 examples show the same.

OK, suppose sequence is LLWW. Bets are $10, $20, $30, $20. Result is a win of $20. Average bet is $20. What is your hypothesis? That result should be zero, since if you bet $20 every time result would be zero?? No way, Jose! :-)

The interesting, salient point is that the total of results from ALL SIXTEEN sequences MUST add to zero, no matter what progression you use. Thus showing that progressions can't improve overall EV for even money unbiased coin flips.

ETF

I see what you did. You took average bet in each scenario and used that in each sequence, then added THAT up. So LLWW would have contributed zero to your total.

Off the top of my head, I don't see any reason to believe that would sum to zero. You need to either pick one value and use it throughout, or follow the progression throughout.

If you're thinking of using this to create a progression, remember that you don't know what you're average is going to be before all the results are in! Any "well defined" progression will sum to zero here. You're not allowed to use precognition!

ETF

Since you didn't agree yet, I clearly have that legal right.

I'm wondering whether my bet offer would have any legal standing (ignoring the wire act, etc.) since it was based on an error of fact. (I said "I did exactly what you said ..." when in fact, I never understood what he had done.) I think there's some sort of loop hole for that, but better to be safe than sorry. Retract!!

ETF