Attempted answer
(Please forgive the crosspost. After answering the original on Vegas, I realized it was off topic for that page)
i have an older version of bjrm and it only allows wonging in at -1 in DD games.my UBZ 2 count starts off at -4.i want to know how much i lose by playing off the top of the deck at -4 and leaving at -5 instead of waiting for -1 to jump in.the rules are DD s17 das da2 no resplit of aces with a 16000 bank.60% pen 4 to 1 spread.the way i have it now the specs are: 2 units at +5) 3 units at +8)4 units at +10 or better.i get a DI of 9.66)13.57% ROR)NO 10711)150.oo profit per 100.thats perfect but i dont know how much more risk im taking if i play the first hand and then wait to leave at -5.im sick of back counting until it reaches -1.can someone please do this sim for me that allows me to wong in at -4 instead of-1.thank you.
It was hard for me to follow your post and you left some needed details out. I think I was able to fill in the blanks fairly closely however from the info you did give. I couldn't duplicate the results you gave for your current play exactly, but I got close.
If I understand your question correctly, your ROR will nearly double. I ran it several times with slightly different variables to cover the ballpark and got ROR's in the 23-28% range.
Bottom line is that you are generally using a large unit relative to your BR with a small spread, and the additional waiting bets with that large unit size are killers in variance. Also the small spread makes it hard for those small max bets to overcome the extra waiting bet losses. This is why ROR goes up substantially even though it doesn't hurt EV that bad. You would be better off to use a smaller unit size with a bigger spread. Wonging is just a 0 min bet with an infinite spread, so the the smaller the unit size, bigger the spread that you can get away with, the more it approaches the results of wonging.
Of course to each his own, but most serious players generally keep their ROR under 5%. Many pros keep ROR to well under 1%. With all due respect, 13.5% ROR is already extremely high and I would not consider changing my play to something that would drive it even higher. If anything, I would suggest you play less aggressively, and take the "better safe than sorry" approach.
A few unsolicited comments:
The opportunity to wong DD is very limited. There are fewer DD games, they are generally more crowded than shoes, many hamper wonging with no midshoe entry, and wonging DD draws a lot of attention. The math looks good on paper, but in practice you will likely burn out fairly quickly if you put in many hours at your current stakes. I really suggest you use a play-all approach to DD and/or learn to wong shoes unless you don't play much. No matter which you do, you really need to lower your unit size and increase your spread.
Rethink your BR/ROR situation. Being at a high ROR, look for these common mistakes in figuring a true BR: If you must make any w/drawals for expenses (food, travel, dealer/cw tips, etc), then you are actually playing to a smaller bank & your ROR is higher. If you have other income and can add to the bank in the near future, then you can factor the 16,000 much like a trip or session bank, and your true BR is higher which lowers ROR. But if your true BR is only 16,000, you must not only be lucky enough to win early, but you must leave those winnings to build the bank or you won't last long if you play significant hours at your current levels. Also think about the mental stress that comes with small banks even before you go broke. If you lose 12,000 of the 16,000, do you think you can still keep throwing out max bets when called for without hesistation? Then split and double them? Again, I suggest you resize your bet unit and spread.
I hope this helps & good luck.