3rd base play (blackjack)

Hello
I play blackjack at a casino in New Zealand where no hole card is taken and 6 decks used. I was faced with a situation recently of having a 15 vs. dealer's 10 with a maximum bet out. The true count was plus 5 and I knew the variation on basic strategy says I should stand. BUT given I was at third base and the next card from the shoe would either go to me or the dealer I knew if it were a high card I'd lose whatever I did. My only chance of winning was if it were a small card. With that in mind, should I always hit in that situation? Is there a difference in the basic strategy variation for sitting at 3rd base when no hole card is taken?
Regards
Mat

yes. there are different strategies for a TRUE no-hole-card situation. However, your post brings up a different issue and it seems fairly obvious that you are suffering from a severe case of ploppy logic.

There is NO DIFFERENCE betwen playing at 3rd base and playing anywhere else on the table (regardless of other rules such as no-hold-card). please do not let anyone tell you otherwise. The intelligent posters on this board and the TRUE advantage players understand this rather basic mathematical principle.

basically, you are trying to be an advantage player but you are still mixing in inaccurate information into your game.

you need to understand or at least acknowledge that 3rd base play is no different (at least in this respect)

the only way 3rd base play is different is that you will see more cards before you make a playing decision and thus may have a slightly truer count (particularly useful in face-down DD games for example). Another way it is different is that it can be easier to count a whole table at a glance without having to scan from side-to-side if you sit in the middle. counting at a glance can be helpful in remaining inconspicuous to the pit-critters.

But you are clearly referring to the popular fallacy of "taking the dealer's bust card" or some other such nonsense and obviously have no idea that it is nothing but a myth/lie.

MATT,
WITH A HARD FIFTEEN:1)DEALER SHOW HIGH CARD, YOU SURRENDER.

WRONG! hard 15 vs. 10 even the surrender is count dependent. And what that count is depends on the number of decks you are playing.

Hard 15 vs. 10 is surrender in BASIC STRATEGY! In a plus 5 count (as in the referring post) it most surely is SURRENDER.

run the sim yourself.

You cannot be thinking of any card steering by the count I hope. The early surrender against a ten does have a lower ceiling that is dependant on the shoe size. But when the dealer's second card is drawn is irrelevant.

Hard 15 surrender, Clark I'm letting you in on this because you shared your most excellent post about banging and other advantage plays with me. 8D, DOA, LSR, S17, RSA, Hand shuffle single pass. Late surrender two cards only. Because of the two card surrender rule I have run simulations and have 2 card and 3 card hands for 14,15,and 16.

2 card hands

15
2-6 stay
7 hit
8> 4 surrender else hit
9> 2 surrender else hit
10>0 surrender else hit
A> 1 surrender else hit

3 card hand (surrender not allowed)

15
2-6 stay
7-9 hit
10>3 stand else hit
A Hit

I thought what you had in mind was the ceiling for surrender numbers, where in ENHC games surr v. 10 is actually ES. That would bring in some cases a low top number to surrender 15 v. 10

He said it was a high positive count (+5 true). Who cares if the surrender is "count dependent" -- it was still the correct play.