2 VERY interesting KO stat questions IMO

Hi guys, I read the KO book and came up with what I believe to be a pretty important question and a follow-up question to that. Here are some values that were suggested in the book: For a 6-deck game, use an initial running count of -20, a key count of -4, and place your max bet (10 units if using a 1-10 spread) at a count of +4 and above. For an 8-deck game, use an IRC of -28, a KC of -6, and a "max bet" count of +4 and above.

My question is: What is the theoretical (disregard standard deviation) percentage of the time the count should be at +4 and above for both the 6 and 8-deck games in a game employing let's say 75% penetration?

A follow-up to that is what exactly (or estimate, range, etc.) is your theoretical (again disregard standard deviations) win probability at a count of exactly +4 in both the 6 and 8-deck games using standard Vegas strip rules (dealer hits soft 17, double down after pair-splitting) at again 75% penetration? I know the win probability would be higher as the count goes higher than +4, but I'm mostly interested in the probability at the minimum count in which a 10-unit bet would be placed. Thanks for any input! I love this forum!

I don't have access to my sim files at the moment, but the number should be the same as it would be with a +4 count in Hi-Lo. If you have a copy of Blackjack Attack, you could look it up in Chapter 10.

Your RC should be +4 or higher roughly 4.5% of the time in a 6D and 3.25% in an 8D game.

Your second question involves some more KO discussion, such as realizing that an 8D H17, DAS game with 2 decks cut off, is hardly playable...and should be avoided with a 1-10 spread. However, the minimum count at which 10u would be an optimal bet would be closer to -1 (IRC=-20), furthermore, you'd begin ramping closer to -6, not -4.

KO is a good start, but incomplete in terms of learning the intricacies of advantage play. If the game you described is your only game in town, I encourage you to backcount and jump in around -6 with a 1-10 spread. You'll only be playing 23% of the time...but you will also be playing positive counts.

Thanks for your response Bootlegger! I took a look at Chapter 10 of Blackjack Attack (2nd Ed.) and on p. 209 for the 4.5/6.0 H17 DAS game, it gives an EV % W/L value of 1.90 for a true count of +4. Does this mean that you will theoretically expect 1.90 wins for every 1 loss? When I see numbers like this, I automatically think 190% or 1.90% I'm pretty sure that's what it translates to, but just want to make sure. Thanks!

Thanks for your extremely helpful response Captain Jack. The Hi-Lo values given in Blackjack Attack were a tad bit higher (5.10% for the 6D, 3.55% for the 8D). The KO values you gave me seem correct and will be used to do some studies on KO. Thanks again!

I checked a sim I had on KO. At +4 in the game you describe, I found that the EV was 1.54%. 5.52% of the hands played were at or above +4.

The EV percentage is the expected value for all the money wagered at that point in the count. 1.54% means that you could expect a profit of 1.54% times the total number of dollars wagered. In other words, you would make $1.54 for each $100 bet at a +4 count.

Hi,

I have been a recreational BJ player for 8 years and wanted to take my playing to a higher level. I have purchased Ken Uston's Million Dollar Blackjack, Wong's Professional Blackjack, and have read about the KO system. Having said that, I would like to ask the knowledgable players in the forum to assist me in chosing a good card counting system. I am willing to dedicate hours to learn as I have just returned from Vegas with my tail between my legs...LOL...I am 42 years old and am planning on gambling in the casino's roughly 3-4 times per year.

I am sure this question has been asked a million times...sorry for the duplication. Thanks in advance.

Ken

Asking which counting system is the best will get you a variety of answers, all of them well-reasoned and sincere. Different counting systems produce different results in different games. For a beginner, I would suggest Hi-Lo or KO. Both of them can get the money and that is what counts. There are other more complex systems that will produce more in theory, but a few mistakes can reduce the expected value gained from these systems to less than a simpler system will produce. I am an advocate of keeping it simple.

There are other equally valid opinions that differ from mine, but that is my take on it.

Ken,
For occasional use, for the predominate low minimum shoe games, KO must be considered the easiest count system, because no true count conversion is required. My wife uses it succesfully, with no effort and a minimum of practice. Good luck.
Slim