Gamemaster is batting a thousand

First, let me say your spreadsheet is apparantly quite accurate. Griffin lists 0.06 (in percent) for the infinite deck EV delta on hard 16 v T (pg. 231 ToB), so that matches your 6 cents on a $100 bet exactly.

But I can't agree with: *"If a player should hit his 16 against a dealer 10 at a true count of zero with an infinite number of decks, then he should definitely hit with 8 or fewer decks! If he hits his 16, he is obviously hoping to receive a 5 or less. If he gets a 6 or higher, he will lose regardless of the effect that his hitting has caused on the dealer�s hand."*

The problem with this logic is that the strategy EoRs for 6 and higher are all over the map!

From Don's BJA3 pg. 515 ...

EoR 16 v T (6): +1.6446

EoR 16 v T (7): -0.7109

EoR 16 v T (8): -0.0567

EoR 16 v T (9): +0.5524

EoR 16 v T (T): +1.1151

It seems the fact a 7 might show up as dealer's hole card is more important than its role as a hit card.

There's a fairly simple procedure for calculating an index based purely on the EoRs. It's described here:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/AlgebraicIndices.htm

I carried out the procedure for 16 v T, based on removal of the T upcard, for 1, 2, 6 and 8 decks. They came out as follows...

1 deck index: -0.1238

2 deck index: -0.02502

6 deck index: +0.04428

8 deck index: +0.0532

These follow the interpolation by 1/decks fairly well. So apparantly, the index changes in sign somewhere between 2 and 6 decks.

I also did the 1 deck calculation with the player's first two cards removed along with the T up. That makes quite a difference for one deck...

1 deck index for T,6 v T: +3.72646

1 deck index for 9,7 v T: -0.20216

The gamemaster does say to hit h16 v T for 6 decks at TC=0, and I think he's correct about that, especially since hitting is a little more risk averse than standing (i.e. better chance for a push). Then in his single deck matrix (lesson 19) he has an index of 0 for 9,7 v T (and says to stand right at 0) and an index of +4 for T,6 v T. Right again! The man is psychic.

ETF