1-12 Spread...Too obvious?!

Okay...I've realized the fact that one of the primary/only means of really gaining an edge at this game is by counting cards and having a substantial "bet spread". In single deck games, the question I'm about to ask really doesn't make me wonder much, but it's when we start talking about the shoes (6-deck mostly) I get a little confused.

A 6-deck shoe needs a 1-12 betting spread, which would be $5-$60 in red chips, in order to be "beaten", right?

If all of a sudden betting one chip then jumping to 12 chips on your betting circle will trigger the pit boss to ask you to leave, what good is it...or maybe I should say Is there a 'smaller' spread that's still sufficient?

What kind of spread do you guys use with a 6-deck shoe? It SHOULD be 1-12, right? Do some people still get away with spreads that big? The casino I live around is EXTREMELY lax and chinsy...I go at around 2AM on Sunday nights and all the dealers and pitbosses are in their early 20's late teens...joking around with each other, not doing their jobs with %100 to-the-book rules at all.

So, personally, it seems like I could get away with a spread that big in my casino (Probably not in Vegas tho, right?). I just didn't have the guts to try it out there until I got an answer or two from some experienced players here. Also, I do not have adequite bankroll yet...So I'm just asking before-hand so I know when I do have the money to play.

Any answers to this will be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

If you are betting 1 chip, the count is negative or neutral. Your 12 chip bet is going to be made at a count of +5 or +6. Let's say you are halfway thru a 6 deck shoe (3 decks remaining). There would have to be 15 small cards come out in a row with no large cards, for the count to jump from 0 to +5. It is not going to happen. In shoe games, the count changes slowly, and you slowly inch your bets up and down. You can use a parlay method of increasing your bets, and not miss much.

If all of a sudden betting one chip then jumping to 12 chips on your betting circle will trigger the pit boss to ask you to leave, what good is it...or maybe I should say Is there a 'smaller' spread that's still sufficient?

That would be a tip-off to the pit so we assume a certain amount of cover when we talk about spread. Generally speaking counters never more than double a bet. This is one advantage of the shoe game, since drastic bet raises are rarely required mathematically because of the small fluctuations in advantage.

What kind of spread do you guys use with a 6-deck shoe? It SHOULD be 1-12, right? Do some people still get away with spreads that big? The casino I live around is EXTREMELY lax and chinsy...I go at around 2AM on Sunday nights and all the dealers and pitbosses are in their early 20's late teens...joking around with each other, not doing their jobs with %100 to-the-book rules at all.

In the absence of specific information, a spread of not less than 1-12 is a good general rule. However, when you provide specific information the picture can change dramatically. In the situation you describe I would try spreading 1-40. You play it by ear however. If your aggressive betting style suddenly alters the mood around you, you may consider cutting back to 1-12.

The pit bosses are expecting an advantage player to spread 1-12 so do what I do sometimes. I will buy in at a $25 table with $300 and bet $25 until the count goes to +4 true. Then I chunk everything and appear to be steaming. If I lose, I go into my wallet and throw out $600 and bet that.If I win and the is a true +4, I ride out the shoe with this bet then leave. This is a 1-24 spread and is something a "gambler" would do.

Back count the deck and enter at plus 2. If you bet correctly then your spread will be much smaller.

boatrider

at -1 or -2 True, with no spread at all in that shoe, and try another freshly shuffled shoe next door or down the aisle.

In order to make money in shoe games you need a big spread.
In fact, the house is less worried about your spread than bet sizes in absolute terms. If you never place a bet of more than 100$ they won't bother you.You can even go to two or even three hands in order to hide the real extent of your spread.
Now I understand that your bankroll is not sufficient to play that big.So I suggest the following.You buy in chips of $5 and some of $25.
In any negative or neutral situation you bet minimum but as soon as you have the advantage you bet two greens. If the TC is +3 or higher you can even go to two spots of $50. This will give you a spread of 1:20 which should be sufficient to beat that game.

Francis Salmon

1-40? I like your thinking, but someone who bets a minimum of $5 is probably scared to death (not to mention most likely underbanked) to make a top bet of $200.

To supplement what SOTSOG has said, yes, you use a spread of 1-12 (or, as others have pointed out, 1-n with 'n' being whatever you can get away with).

But, you DON'T go from 1 unit on one hand to 12 units on the next hand; instead, you step your bet up with the count. On a neutral or negative count, you bet 1 unit. If count rises to, say, +3, you might bet 3,4, or 5 units (depending on what count you're using, etc.). If the count rises again--now to +6--you might bet 6, 7, 10 units--regardless of the outcome (win/loss) of your previous hand.

So, to reiterate, 'spread' means the total range-- 1-12--of your bet sizes (NOT that you have only 2 bet sizes, 1 OR 12).

It is important not to make your big bet too early or too late. In a 6 deck game and a 12 spread (anywhere around a ten spread) your maximum bet should most likely be made at +4. At 20 spread and over your max will most likely be at +5.

Blackjack Risk Manager or a similar program should be used but for sure a max bet in 6 deck without tremendous spreads should always be at +4 or 5.

I said "I would". This is not a good idea for everyone, especially the under-bankrolled.

Okay...You all did indeed answer alot of (Most of) questions and have aleviated alot of (Most of) my worries.

However, I am still "slightly" confused as some are saying to actually put down the chips according to the count (i.e. True of 3, put down $15, True of 4, put down $20, True of 6, put down $30, ect. all the way up to a true of 12 which will probably rarely happen I know...but this is kind of the way I thought of doing it) and some are saying to be a little more daring/aggressive and just put down your max (Wich is $60 - and NO I will NOT put down a $200 bet with a bankroll of barely 2k - I'd need 10k to do that) at a True of 4+ and so forth, 'chunking' chips in certain counts (Like of 1,2, and 4). To me that's really not a true representation of your advantage, betting your max at a true count of 4 and the same amount if the count ever really went to 6 or 7 or 8! The way I started learning optimal betting was "You bet according to your advantage, or at least very close to", which tells me:

True Count Of...

1 or under -> $5 (Min.)
2 -> $10
3 -> $15
4 -> $20
5 -> $25
6 -> $30
7 -> $35
8 -> $40
9 -> $45
10-> $50
11-> $55
12-> $60

Now, that's just in theory...for practical uses, I would use my spread and bets as follows:

1 or under -> $5
2 -> $10
3 -> $20
4 -> $40
5 -> $50
6 -> $60

That's how I came up with my optimal bet as $60 with a 1-12 spread, and that's how Game Master taught his material concerning multi-deck play.

If I'm totally OFF here, please do a favor for a helpless newbie and let me know the reality of the situation. Yes, I know it will be DAMN rare for a true count of 6 to ever come up.

So...is the spread I've laid out here (1-12 with Trues of 1-6) sufficient enough to beat a H17 six-deck game (DOA, DAS)?

As always, thank you to everyone out there giving me a helping hand.

P.S. Some of you were telling me that the count will never go from neutral to say +6 in a shoe game...I know that. :)

I was just asking if it would still be obvious, if, over the course of TIME, you went from one chip to a bunch...but I guess not, which is good to know now!

P.S.S. For those of you lost in what I'm saying, I'm continuing from my first entry, which sparked this whole convo...It's the one way up top entitled "1-12 Spread...Too obvious?!"

Thanks again...

-Manny

You will see a true +6 about once every hundred hands. So every hour or so, you are going to chunk out $60. Can you really say you are actually spreading 1-12? Suppose I plan on betting $500 if I get a true count of +10 and my minimum bet is $5. Am I spreading 100 to 1? I'd probably have to play for a couple of months before I got that one $500 bet down. As the previous posters have said, if your max bet is not out at +4 or +5, you are not spreading what you think you are, and you are leaving money on the table.

Yes, you need to bet your advantage, but you also need to take into account the frequency. 75% of the time, you are going to have a neutral to negative count. So 75% of the time, that house edge is grinding away at your $5 bet. Grind, Grind, Grind, a little chunck of your $5 bucks going away. Finally, you get a decent count of +4! If you only bet $40, the advantage on your $40 is not going to make up for all the $5 bets you had to make to get to that point.

Because of the overhead of the waiting bets, the $5 bets waiting for an advantage, you got to chunk the money out there when those rare advantage situations present themselves, or you are wasting your time and money.

Because of your limited bankroll, you also must reduce variance as much as possible, because you can't weather much of a bad luck streak. Avoid all negative counts as much as possible. $5 not bet in a negative situation is $5 more you have to bet in a positive one.

Wong out at negative counts, try to wong in as much as possible on positive counts. Don't ramp your bet until you have over a +2 count. Then only bet $10. However, when the count goes to +3,+4,+5 then get agressive. Bet $25-$50-$60 at those counts.

You will find yourself playing with only 1 or 2 red chips per hand for hours and hours, shoe after shoe. However when the 3+ counts come along, you have good cover to your bet ramp. Simply switch to betting 1 or 2 green chips, and put a couple of red on top of your green for that (still rare) +5 max bet.

The weighed average advantage of all positive situations should be roughly 1% whereas the negative situations will be around -0.5%.
The negative situations will outnumber the positive ones by 6:1.
Even with the more "agressive" bet ramp you gave, the average bet among the positive play won't exceed $20.
Assuming play all,this results in the following profit potential per hour: 10*$20*1% - 60*$5*0.5% = $0.5
Lets do the same calculation for an average bet of $60:
10*$60*1% - 60*$5*0.5% = $4.5 That's at least something!

Francis Salmon

... some excellent advice.

I want to comment on some things that I don't think have been addressed (unless i missed it).

First of all, it sounds like you will be playing at a local casino with young (read: inexperienced pit staff). And playing 6D. I have done this for years at small casinos. Don't worry about them allowing you to spread. If you keep your top bet under $100 they will let you play.

But most important of all in my opinion is penatration. You must look at those 6D shoes and determine which dealers will give you decent to good pen which I define as cutting out of play 52 to 65 cards. If they cut off 1.75 or 2.0 decks or more, forget it. Check out several dealers as they rotate. Often times a casino will have a house policy on pen that several dealers DON'T follow.

Just a quick thank-you note to all of you that have replied to my 2 previous questions. They've helped me tremendously and now see what a true 1-12 spread requires as play.

tour guide, the first night I went to this casino, the dealer cut about a half deck from the shoe!!! Unbelievable...I had to bite my lip from almost jumping out of the seat and yelling "Woooo!".

Thanks again! :-)

-Manny

to put out your max bet is just plain too long...unless you've got less than 1 deck cutoff. For the basic 1.5 deckcutoff game your max bet should come at +4. Most guys I know who play shoes spread at LEAST 20-1 (I spread 24-1 in the rare occasions that I play shoes)

Most important is game selection...stay away from H17 shoes completely unless there is 1 deck cuts and S17 shoes unless you get at least 1.5 deck cuts...and surrender for shoe games is a MUST!

bp.

Anyone??!

surrender you'd better get good pen in exchange.

Minimum playable games for me...

S17 DAS LS...1.6 cutoff
H17 DAS LS...1.3 cutoff
S17 DAS......1.3 cutoff
H17 DAS......1.0 cutoff

any worse pen than this and there must be other factors availiable for me to play...like abundance of open tables for wongouts, game speed, etc. (for others it might also be shuffle design)