Willing to Endure Low Percentage Risk of Losing All Your Money to Make $3 M

In applying some of my 'system' with some computer sims, I've noticed that, for example, after I stopped after about only 100,000 hands, I am ahead .007%. I realize this is a very small sample size of hands, but, let's assume that I've stumbled on a way to get a sizeable chunk of dealer advantage minimized.

Now here comes the kicker: even if one cannot get a long-term advantage, if he/she can reduce the usual house edge some (with flat betting), can't one expect to walk away with a huge sum of money if they can afford to bet, say, $50,000/hand. (From the Blackjack News, it seems that Las Vegas casinos that will handle $50,000/hand maximum bets are not difficult to find.).

On the way to making the huge sum of money, one will experience probable highs and lows. Let's say that, at the worst, the player is losing $12,000,000 betting $50,000 per hand, but at the best, she/he is ahead $3,400,000. If she is willing to endure a risk of, say, 5% of losing everything, can't she walk away with that $3,400,000 if she has a huge bankroll and the time to reach the high of $3,400,000 (alternately, she could agree ahead of time to 'settle' for, say, 'only' about $1,500,000.)

The Wizard of Odds did some very interesting sims with players who have 1 and 2 percent advantages. He showed how long it would take for him, her to make, I believe, 1 million dollars. Granted, a 1-2% advantage is quite sizeable. (Also, his sims involved a version of compound interest though rather than strict flat betting.).

Of course, the hard part is finding a whale player who is willing to endure such an emotional roller coaster. Also, I wonder if the casino would be willing to put up with $50,000 bets for days upon days (if it takes that long to reach the financial objective). Assuming the casino will not handle such big action, what if we reduce the bet to, say, $10,000 per hand, and therefore change the parameters to a less favorable, but still hugely profitable, situation?

Even if one is not able to reduce the typical house edge at all, it seems that she can still walk away with over a million while riding a winning crest, as long as she is willing to endure a risk (perhaps as high as 40%?) of losing everything.

But it seems that with a gigantic bankroll of, say, $5 billion, one's risk of losing it all is greatly reduced while winning millions

... you haven't stumbled at all on any way to win flat betting. You just think you have.

Don

OK, let's assume I have not found a way to win at flat betting. Can those who choose to respond to the post respond to the whole spirit of my post, not just the details here and there? (By the way, "You're right, Overkill - there is nothing statistically stopping someone - it's just very emotionally taxing and taxing from a time investment perspective" is an acceptable response.).

Again, what is stopping someone with a lot of money from making a lot of money by betting huge, absorbing the tough times, and walking away when way ahead - which happens even with a negative EV.

Just play to a 0.3% edge and bet with $5000 chips. You'll be reasonably invisible, get massive comps, show up money, airfare, show tickets, villa's, loss rebates, etc. With a top bet of 2x$25,000 your EV from the game will be between $5000 and $10,000 an hour not counting comps and rebates.

Honestly, if I had a giant bankroll like that I'd rather go to a non-casino destination.

If you had $5 billion, you'd do better to buy a casino.

The odds are generally better on the flat side of the table.

..."Gambler's ruin" along with it's corollary,the "bigger bankroll" theory.

The casinos bank on this. The Sun does't rise in the west and set in the east just because one stands on his head.

Cobbson

...Posted at 6:13am before finishing my coffee.

Cobbson

Overkill,

As you stated, in your 100,000 round sim, the player enjoyed an edge of 0.007%.

The problem is, indeed, your small sample size. As an example, I have an Excel file with 300,000 hands for a heads-up HiLo player flat-betting a 6D, H17, DA2, DAS game with 75% pen. If we consider these hands in 100,000-hand sets (so Set #1 is hands 1-100,000; Set #2 is hands 2-100,001; etc.), then we have 200,000 sets. In these sets, the player's IBA varied from a high of +0.1683% to a low of -1.0057%. In fact, in 15,326 of these sets, the player's IBA was larger than 0.007%; in nearly 8% of the sets the player actually won money.

However, overall, his IBA was -0.558%.

You need to use a LOT more rounds before you can be certain that your "system" actually provides an edge to the player. If you're simply relying on "luck", you can't know in advance whether the next 100K rounds will be the +0.16% set or the -1.00% set.

Furthermore, why does the size of the player's wager matter? Rather than have one player betting $50K/round, you'd get to N0 a lot faster by having 100 players each betting $500/round (on separate tables, of course). However, you might not WANT to get to N0 ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

... what I did in "The real problem is ...," above. :-)

But, of course, you're right, too.

Don

"It's" is a contraction for "it is"; it is NOT the possessive form of "it," which is "its." The analogy would be "her/hers." We don't write "her's" for "belonging to her," and we don't write "it's" for "belonging to it."

Clear?

Don

"Hers" and "its" - possessive, not contraction for "it is," are among the very few possessives that do not use an apostrophe. "Hers" is "her" with an "s" appended at the end. "His" may have once been "hes." Doe anyone here know Middle English or Old English?

One gets tired of them after a while.
Also doing say, Vegas when you are wired in,is so much easier then even true 5 star locations and properties.
Unless you are extremely wealthy as in your own 747,traveling is a hassle.

...once you've lived here a while. Just another tourist town except on a grander scale.

Cobbson

Vegas or any other place that one is wired into, is a great place to be at.
I can go really anywhere I want to, but travelling is a hassle today.
In Vegas I don't have those problems, the city welcomes me, and that is precisely what makes it so attractive.