Will this strategy work?

Hi all,

I just started card counting a couple of months ago and use KO. I don't have a high starting bankroll(300-400$) so I cannot afford to lose. Thus, I cannot sit down and bet at negative tables.

What I plan to do is back count on the low limit tables(10-15$) and wait till I reach the positive key count then flat bet all the way while it is in the positive zone.

Will this work? Will it almost gurantee a win? Any suggestions would be great.

Thank you for your time.

but you'll still most likely lose your entire bankroll. If you can't afford to lose, don't play. Risk of ruin is irrelevant when you are only talking about a few hundred bucks. Just find a good game and give it a shot...most of the time you'll bust out...eventually you'll get lucky and begin building a bigger bankroll. Don't up your betting unit until your bankroll is a chunky one...then you start to factor in risk of ruin...as ruin then means something.

I see it all the time. Someone who won't put up 5,000 at a casino, but the same person comes to the casino every day of the week bringing 1,000 or more. Just go to the casino less often with a bigger bankroll. I see people get nickle and dimed to death and never go for any big payoffs. Most people are too scared to push chips in the circle. I say you should NEVER walk out of a casino saying "Shoula, Woulda, Coulda". Put your money at stake when the time is right. If you lose, you lose but if you are too scared to do it then you are overplaying your bankroll and should not play at all.

and I really could not afford to lose then I would not be gambling. However if you can afford to lose but don't want to lose ( none of us ever do :) ) that is an entirely different proposition.

Now with a $400 BR I would back count until I hit a high(ish) count and lay it all out over two hands of $200, high risk but also high return. If you can double through $400,$800,$1600 ( at this level maybe 3*$500 ), $3100 you now have a smallish but workable bankroll. Congratulations if you got this far but as you can see it only requires 3 high counts and ALOT of luck and you have made it.

Hello Stan:

You should be doing far more reading then you are playing. If your maximum bet at back counting will be $15., you should have at least 100 times that much as your bankroll, which is $1500. Bear in mind that when the count is +4, you will have a 2% advantage which means, theoretically, that you will win 51 times and lose 49 for every 100 wagers. The large bankroll is required to help you to overcome the roller coaster ride caused by standard deviation.

BE CAREFUL.

Well, its not my rent money or anything like that I'll be betting on. But man, 1500$ is out of my league!

I guess I have to "gamble" and test my luck. I have to built a bankroll afterall or not there's no game!

Assuming you are perfectly playing 6 deck H17 DAS games with a typical cut and are wonging the $10 tables (flatbetting at $10/hd while the shoe is positive)...

Your expectation is a $11.60/hr win. However, as others have alluded to, you can expect that you will NOT just sit there and win at $11 an hour.

1. In the first four hours you have over a 25% chance of getting your $400 wiped out. 67% of the time you will range between a $345 loss and a $438 win.

2. In the first 40 hours you have a 65% chance of getting your $400 wiped out.

3. If after losing $400, you will give up the game of blackjack forever (which is what you mean by saying you have a $400 bankroll) then you have a 78% chance of someday swearing off the casinos forever.

This is why people are telling you that a $400 bankroll is ridiculous (unless you are playing silver). Now, a $400 TRIP bankroll is different (meaning you are willing to go get more if you need to). Typical RORs for lifetime bankrolls are in the 1% range. (I think bigplayer has said he is at about 0.1% or so.)

As to the idea of putting your entire stake on one hand - this is a terrible idea the way it was written. Blackjack is a horrendous game if you cannot split, double, or buy insurance which is where you are at if you slide your entire bankroll into the circle. This is the same reason why you should never use a typical matchplay on blackjack if you don't have to. Even roulette is a better choice for matchplays.

I will say that going for broke, changing some of the details, isn't a bad idea. You are NOT going to raise any kind of decent bankroll with your method. Even if you do happen to be one of the five theoretical people who survives this at the beginning you aren't going to get any comps being a true $10 backcounter. The expenses (even if you are close to a casino and don't have to worry about rooms and/or long travel, wear and tear on your car-) will overwhelm your $10/hr advantage. But I get the feeling you are a very recreational player who is just looking to go have a good time and feel like he's different from the rest of the goons in the place.

I say - go nuts. Just realize what you are doing. Your $400 is almost certainly going to be wiped out one way or another. Of course, go to a bar 10 times and this is also true. You'll also find that backcounting is an especially lonely way to play. I don't much enjoy it myself. You need to be more educated if you plan to get serious - and this is the right place to start.

Lek Tol

Anubis

You have no bankroll...$400 is a trip bankroll...your real bankroll is the money you can accumulate over time. If you can save up $400 a month from your job, then you can say you have a $4800 bankroll broken up into 12 $400 trip banks.

So, once a month, take your $400 to the casino and try to double it (or bust out trying) by playing the best game your can and spreading $5-$50. If you double it up take your $800 and add $400 to it the next month...now you have $1200 to play with. Now double your stakes, bet $10-2x$75 and try to double $1200...if you do, stop and wait another month to add $400 saved from regular job....at this point you now have $2800. Don't increase your bet sizes further at this point as you're still way way overbetting. Every month from here on out you'll be playing a double up or lose half trying approach. If you double $2800 to $5600 you'll have $6000 to work with the following month (after adding $400 from regular job). $6000 is a decent amateur bankroll and risk starts to become a consideration...but you really need to double up one more time to about $12,000 for absolute safety while still betting the 1x$10 to 2x$75 level. Once you pass the $10K point, risk of ruin becomes a true consideration...as it will take a lot of luck and effort to get to this point again should you bust out.

When your bankroll reaches $30,000 you can increase your betting stakes to 1x$10 to 2x$100 increasing your max bet by $50 and your min bet by $5 everytime you bankroll increases by $15,000.

So: $45,000 bankroll, you can bet up to 2x$150

$60,000 bankroll, you can bet up to 2x$200

$90,000 bankroll, you can bet up to 2x$300

$120,000 bankroll, you can bet up to 2x$400

These numbers are conservative (about 0.03% risk of ruin)...but at this level (once you have a $30,000 bankroll) you can begin to take out 1/2 of your win as profit without having to worry about the effect of spending your winnings on your bankroll risk. The rest of your winnings should continue to be plowed into your bankroll regardless...your bankroll becomes, in effect, your own 401K retirement plan. You should only pull out 1/2 of your profits after a set number of hours played or after reaching a certain predetermined win goal.

This is an excellent post for under-bankrolled beginners who are trying to create something out of nothing. I suspect the numbers of such players are over-represented here, yet there needs are massively under-represented by the general discussion.

In addition, I would point out that BJ isn't really a great option for a low-stakes player, even for a gambler. Poker and promotion-hustling (off and online) for example are better options to build up a bankroll from nothing. The major advantage with BJ is the opportunity to grow your bankroll exponentially. Doubling a $400 bankroll a few times isn't that big a deal in financial terms yet it is mathematically as difficult as doubling five figures. Lower-variance high EV opportunities can grow a bankroll much faster, but are often impractical for anything above red chip level.

This is a very good post by Bigplayer, and I would encourage all the low stakes players to read it.

I would only differ with the recommendations at the end of his post. I would recommend a less conservative approach for players with day jobs that make adequate income. For such players, I think a bankroll of 80-100 max bets is accurate (depending on what your games are and what you mean by Max Bet). However, this would be based on taking no money out of the bankroll, other than to pay expenses and taxes.

We don�t know Stan�s overall financial situation, and so I can�t comment on how this applies to him. However, the premise at the start of BP�s post was that the player could save 400 a month from the day job. I think if you are making that much money that you can save 400 after taxes, then you don�t really need to take anything out of your bankroll. Once your bankroll becomes self-sustaining, you can redirect that 400 a month into other things.

Now, if you don�t have a day job, and you are looking to generate income from your bankroll, then I would recommend a more conservative approach. In that situation, I would personally want to have twice as much bankroll as I have listed above, and even that might not be enough.

Dear Professor just reminds me of the bankroll factor: the magic number 80.

Circa 1989, I personally came up with my own magic number 80, and that's the number I used to estimate my own bankroll, i.e., 80 x $200 max bet = $16,000 bankroll (Oh boy, that was 16 years ago) .

Those were the good old days. When I was "younger", I was a nut & loved to program & run bj sims. Based on the win-loss printouts, somehow I realized that I could lose 80 max bets before I could go north & recouped my losses. Ever since then, that magic number 80 always gets stuck into my memory. By the way, I think DD' likes to use the 100 factor to estimate a bankroll. Hey, where is DD'? I have not seen his posts for months. I hope he's OK.

The bankroll and betting suggestions offered above are way off in too many ways to go into. You play as long as the opportunity is good. "Trip bankroll" and other nonsense is of no value. You do not go home because you lost 10 units and you do not drastically raise your bet levels if you won a little. Long term within a sane bankroll and in the right spots gets the money. Expect some wild fluctuations. The rest is for comic books.

As someone who plays here everyday I can tell you that the reality is that if you think that you will be playing high limit 21 here on a regular basis someday, you are many years too late. Today's game is very difficult to get away with high limit play for very long. I have been ejected more than 100 times (I have returned to those same places often).

My suggestion for newer players would be to play green chip or less and move around alot. I could explain exactly what needs to be done, as I have for many years, but disclosing it would ruin it for me. You can make money, in small amounts, but don't put all your hopes on this. Just speaking the truth.

perhaps you need to develop an act? Obviously something you are doing is not getting you over with the pit. Perhaps you should quit playing double deck at Barbary Coast...maybe you'll get more money down.

Those reading this site deserve accurate facts, not fantasies and delusions. Do you come to Las Vegas more than once a year? We seem to get these type posts with some regularity. Recently one of your "buddies" told readers here that they could easily make $150,000 in Las Vegas before having any problem. Total BS. Why you and some of the others want spread this nonsense may indicate some type of ego problem. Those of us who live in Las Vegas and play all the time know what the truth is.

Your "act" is old. Instead of attacking me, perhaps you should spend your "trip bankroll" on some analysis.

He makes his living as a full-time AP, and he has for the last few years. I think he might get to Las Vegas a tad more often than once a year.

I realize that a small group here likes to stick up for each other no matter how comical or ridiculous their coimments. They need to return to planet Earth. After reading the "$150,000 is not a problem" guy and his buddy Mr. "trip bankroll", I anxiously await their next message!

I have seen you insult players who I know to have made a substantial amount of money playing blackjack or other casino games. One of your recent insults was to a million-dollar player. Others have been to players who have earned hundreds of thousands in the last couple of years. I think you really need to expand your horizons and your mind if you wish to have a true grasp on advantage play.