WHY IS THIS A GOOD LIVING???????

Ouch ouch ouch. I just got spanked to the tune of $600 at the riverboat. Quite a "variance" eh? I made the cardinal mistake of pulling more cashish out of the machine. Should have just left at minus 300.

While the swings were there, for the most part the games werent great. Lots of stiff hands. Enough to make me want to go buy PBJ.

Anyway, QUESTION of soul searching for all of you. I was analyzing why the heck this BJ/counting thing is so great. Is it?????

1) IF you play perfectly, you all have said that over the long run you can expect to eke out 1.5 or 2% (I'm being generous) over the house.
2) There are variances bigtime which can destroy money.
3) However, a true Wong disciple is in it for the long run, again, 1.5 to 2 percent.

So my question is WHY. I am certainly intrigued by the mathematics and the chance to "beat" the house. However, any numwit should know that it is much easier to earn more than 2% RISK FREE - with no work. I can earn 5% risk free and not have to 1) spend 5 hours in a dark casino on a nice afternoon 2) have smoke blown in my face by some old Asian lady 3) have some big dude tell me I "ruined the table" because I hit my 12 against a 2, and much much more. Fun eh? Also, like one of these books said, you aint gonna impress any ladies or non-gambler friends (most of the world) with your tales of that one excellent count where you took the house.

I'd be interested to hear your rationalizations. I certainly have some "gambler" in me, so that is why I was drawn to this, but the "true counters" keep saying that they are so robotic in terms of Basic Strategy, the count, etc that it isnt even exciting. You win, good but you know it is just positive variance. You lose, oh well, negative variance and one step closer to "ruin".

Anyway, maybe I dont have what it takes. Maybe I'll sleep on it and feel differently. But right now I must ask WHY??????????????

There is only one reason to be a counter. Its the money.

1.) Yes the variance sucks
2.) 1.5% to 2% is a dream game, 0.5%-1% is more realistic.
3.) Yes smokers suck
4.) Yes ploppies are annoying imbeciles
5.) Yes, counting cards takes all the mystery out of the game and transforms you into a human calculator.

There is only one point where you are mistaken - the 5% return you are referring to is PER YEAR, the 1% return in blackjack is PER BET. A very big difference.

True. The 1% expectation is per bet. That makes a difference in my calculation.

What can I say - I'm new to this and still learning the ups and downs, and downs some more.

Question - does a pro counter never care when he leaves the casino? What I mean is, if all you are looking to do is get in as many hands as you can of good games, and you go down $1000, that shouldnt make you leave for the day right? Most of the pedestrian BJ books talk about Session Bankroll, etc.

The reason I took out more money was because I wanted to keep practicing. Too bad I ended up losing it too. In all honesty, when I was down near the end my "nerves of steel" were fraying, and I probably should have left. I started to lose the count and was betting up-progressions and standing on 16s and stuff. My mind got the best of me.

Oh well, need to suck it up and regroup. I;m sure some of you pros went through the same doubting stages early in your play.

You wrote:

". . . when I was down near the end my "nerves of steel" were fraying . . . I started to lose the count and was betting up-progressions"

Your self-analysis is correct.

When you are not at your best mentally, YOU MUST STOP PLAYING.

Once you "started to lose the count," you became just another ploppy.

Have something to eat (hopefully comped), take a nap, walk outside the casino, look at the cocktail waitresses. Do anything except play.

The game is tough enough. Don't make it harder on yourself by playing when you feel the way you described. The casino will still be there when you feel better.

You made a beginner's mistake. Turn it into something positive by learning from it, and not repeating it. :>)

A good friend of mine says that he doesn't know an investor who wouldn't be thrilled to invest $1000 in the market and find he'd made a 20% profit at the end of the day. That same investor goes to a casino with $1000 and wants to walk out with the title to the building. :-)

The reason I took out more money was because I wanted to keep practicing. Too bad I ended up losing it too.

Casinos are an expensive place to practice. Not everyone agrees with me on this, but may I suggest you practice at home. Turn off the computer BJ games. Get yourself some cards and some chips -- or a pile of coins -- and deal the cards. Play the same game at home that you play in the casino. It may be boring, but when you practice at home you hone your skills and, more importantly, you hone your confidence in your method of play. When you then go to a casino you're better prepared to know what to expect.

Those who have followed my posts are tired of hearing me say this, BUT I've been playing 20 years and I play several days a week in casinos -- I still practice.

In all honesty, when I was down near the end my "nerves of steel" were fraying, and I probably should have left. I started to lose the count and was betting up-progressions and standing on 16s and stuff. My mind got the best of me.

What you're saying is that you got a bad run of cards and lost confidence in the method that sent you to the casino in the first place. Your loss of confidence caused you to abandon the strategy. Once you abandoned the strategy you might as well have taken the additional money to the slot machines.

Remove the word "probably" from your above sentence and then follow your own advice. May I suggest that whenever you feel uncomfortable or start to become nervous about the game (or the money on the table) it's time to take a break or quit for the day. Once you stop following the strategy, you're doomed.

Oh well, need to suck it up and regroup. I'm sure some of you pros went through the same doubting stages early in your play.

I've never met a player who doesn't have a similar "early experience" story. I certainly have mine.

Start turning those cards and go back and give them hell when you're sure the casino atmosphere (and real money on the table) isn't gonna rattle you.

Good Fortune.

Question - does a pro counter never care when he leaves the casino? What I mean is, if all you are looking to do is get in as many hands as you can of good games, and you go down $1000, that shouldnt make you leave for the day right? Most of the pedestrian BJ books talk about Session Bankroll, etc.

If the goal is to maximise earnings/hour, yes, you should put in as many playing hours as possible, regardless of winning/losing streaks. A professional quits when he is tired (and starts making mistakes) or when he is receiving too much unwanted attention from the casino staff.

For a serious player it is important to have a sufficient session bankroll. You must have enough money to handle a big negative swing. I'll explain why: in BJ you bet large sums of money in situations where you have biggest advantage. If your session bank is small, you will run into those high-positive counts, bet big, lose a few hands and run out of money, being forced to quit in that golden situation where you have high advantage. This will reduce your win rate.

The reason I took out more money was because I wanted to keep practicing. Too bad I ended up losing it too. In all honesty, when I was down near the end my "nerves of steel" were fraying, and I probably should have left. I started to lose the count and was betting up-progressions and standing on 16s and stuff. My mind got the best of me.

Thats a definite sign its time for a break. It also means you need better mental preparation before the session. When you decide how much bankroll you are willing to invest in the game, ask yourself how will you feel when you lose it all. If you wont feel too good, consider using a smaller bankroll and reducing bet sizes accordingly.

I started to lose the count and was betting up-progressions

I suppose it can happen once in your lifetime (flipping out of your mind and betting a progression), but if it ever happens again, quit blackjack immediately. In fact, quit all gambling forever -- even for fun. Never look back. Lady Luck will fillet your gizzard and viscerate your variance.

ETF

You obviously dont enjoy blackjack and seem to be a little upset after your $600 loss. If you must gamble, you might find keno or slots more enjoyable to fit your needs. You can easily find a lonely machine where nobody will bother you and can bet as little as nickel or quarter at many casinos.

I dont recall anyone saying counting is great. However it is a great tool to use with your strategy if done proficiently. Do I need to explain why?

I'm my own boss and make my own hours. If I choose to relax at the side of a hotel pool watching sexy women on a beautiful afternoon, then it's no problem.

Playing blackjack,traveling,meeting people of all sorts from all over the world, visiting beautiful casinos that host to a good game enlightens me...and when the women smoke on that big cigar it's a very fine sweet blend of aroma to them.

ON the contrary of what you heard I do NOT find blackjack and card counting to be boring. I'm too busy to be bored and still find the game enjoyable and exicting. Dont confuse easy with boredom. The more years of experience you have the easier it gets. You must have read the thread awhile back when an inexperienced card counter was complaining about how he lost his money and the count hardly raised into positive territory. He then comments "It's just so boring." A good experienced counter already knows that patience and discipline are mandatory.

Hey, we all like to gamble, right? This way we can gamble, get free comps, and show a profit in the long run. It can be a very frustrating experience, but I would guess that not knowing how to play, and losing most of the time is much more frustrating.

IMHO, Harry

adds up over the course of a year...if you're playing to a 50K bankroll it is highly likely that you will double it with about 500 hours of play...that is a 100% return. If you play 1000 hours you can make 200%. If you play 1000 hours your chances of losing money is practically non-existant.

Remember...the 1-2% is applied against total action...not total bankroll. I am playing to a $75,000 bank right now and I have put more than $4,500,000 into play at blackjack so far this year (although I'm only ahead about $25K for the year 2002 so far). 1% of $4,500,000 is $45,000 which is about what I should have won for the amount of hours I've put in (about 375 hours)

I was corrected on the return versus amount of action wagered - this makes a big difference.

In hindsight I think the problem was that I was playing perfect BS and those damn shoes seemed to be set up to kill. Double down, get an Ace. Seemed every hand was a stiff hand, dealer showed a 10, then most of the table busted out trying to hit up.

It is my relative lack of experience that makes me more suspect of these things. Plus reading that stuff about card clumping, etc. I know that it is bunk but it still seems amazing what happens in some of those shoes.

Those of you who've played hundreds of hours can just snicker at Mr. Standard Deviation when he pulls those shoes. Guys like me who have played for 10s of hours still wonder if we're being stupid in taking up this hobby.

Thanks to those of you with encouraging words. The key is to stay disciplined, keep practicing the count, and if I start to lose it, either take a rest or leave the casino to come back another day. Wasting money in desperation moves not only creates more losses, but it clouds the efficacy of the true counting system.

By the way, I will never play Keno or Slots. Those are boring and you know you will lose. The whole reason why I'm here, learning this game, is that I am interested in actually playing with an edge. So thanks for that advice, but no thanks. Either I'll get this system working for me, or I'll find another hobby. But I am not going to become a professional slot player!!!!!!!!!

If you don't mind bigplayer, with a $75,000 bank what minimum bet and spread do you use? What ROR do you play to with this strategy?

If you're doubting your game, you should go back to the computer. Play at least one hundred hours against the computer. If you can consistently beat the computer, then your game is probably OK. If you can't consistently win against the computer, you should change your system, or quit. Don't "practice" in the casino.

Also, remember that, even if your game is solid, you will have plenty of losing sessions. As a green chip player, I consider $600 to be a modest loss. I have lost over $1000 in an hour SEVERAL times (If you're red chip, it's a pretty substantial loss). If your game is good, however, your winning sessions will greatly outnumber your losing sessions, and it won't take very long for it to happen.

I have just read the article about why is this a good living. My answer, where can you find a bank that will pay you 1 to 1.5% interest and compound it. Surely this is what every professional Blackjack player should know! If you could make just .75% interest on your bankroll every day and compound it a bankroll of $1000 would become $234,000 in 2 years. My bnkroll is growing playing lousy English rules, Double on 9,10,11 only, DAS, no hole card, lose all to a natural, insure only naturals, no surrender, no splitting 4s, 5s or 10s. Come on you guys you should ne making a fortune in the U.S.A.
I spent 10 hours in Reno cashing in only $600 and won $4,100 playing single deck for the first time in my life at John Esquadas Nugget Casino in May 2001, having the time of my life. If you fancy playing in Moscow, the Beverley Hills casino will welcome you and give you good rules too. DOA, DAS, late surrender, good pen.
Melvin

varies depending on the game...but about $130 at DD (spread $25-$400), and up to about $250 at single deck (spread $100-$600) with risk of ruin anywhere from 0% to 0.75% again depending on the game and spread required. I shoot for about a 1.15% overall edge between all the games I play. I am running at about a .56% edge for the year so far based on actual results....it's still early.

A pro does not care how much he has won or lost in the last hour (unless it draws attention). If you are up $500 or down $500, it does not matter. The next shoe is a new chance to analyze, and hope for an opportunity to place big bets.

when should you leave?
1. If there is heat (and not just your paranoid suspicions)
2. If you have trouble keeping the count
3. If you make a poor decision (you know you should hit that 16 v. 8, but don't)

As long as you can play well with a positive EV, and with no heat, continue on. This post DOES assume you're at a 6-shoe game. Rules are VERY different for 1 or 2 deck.

These rules are awful what kind of spread do you use?

hey its simply advantage play...its expectations are up to the bankroll and skill off the player. myself i am happy to take 500 to a thousand a month from the sun ....limit your losses and run with your hundred or two....if your a big player with a roll you probably dont need to be counting anyway...and those that play big and got there from counting... god bless them... it works... but limiting your losses and avoiding catastophic days is one key element....being able to move freely from table to table is a big plus...as to avoid negative counts ,...but most times of the day its hard to move because the casinos strive to have full tables...so look for a time of day or night when it is free to move.....its not for everyone,,,,chart your efforts ...if the hours are not worth the profit.... then let go....and when and if you come back ..its like riding a bike...once you got it... you got it ...... i believe it is a it is a gift...