Free Forum - Which concept separates the winners from the losers?

Puiu

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Jul 17, 2002, 2:27:50 PM

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Which concept separates the winners from the losers?

I know it for long time, I practiced for as long as I remember and it serves me well even today after so many years but I didn�t know how to explain until I�ve read Mason Malmutht book.

Self-weighting gambling strategies are those in which many plays are made for approximately same size of bets (or a small bet spread), while successful non self-weighting strategies attempt to identify where the gambler has the best of it and then to make the most of it (like betting the table limit while on a wining streak and the count is positive) This type of betting would never be possible with the classic card counting betting strategy.

I have said in another thread how to manage a bankroll of 25K and build it into 50K and only then start to protect it. Remember?

Now, A player who bets boldly even at a bad game has a better chance of coming out ahead with very large profits than one who bets optimally for the long run and appropriately even at a good game (i.e. betting using TC * unit in card counting in a great game). In other words, bold play is more important than knowing what bets are good or bad. Of course, a bold player will not play as long, and may not have as much "fun." But one should concentrate on winning, not entertainment and math mastery of the game.

I would argue that blackjack can be played in a very non-self-weighting mode. This means that it is highly possible and probable (and we all know this from our experience) for the dealer to have long periods of time where she breaks more than expected and long periods of time where she always seems to draw out on the players. And these periods happen completely at random. But if the player is capable to capitalize and the long streaks when the dealer is breaking by betting all the way to the table limit, then it is absolutely possible to extract large sums of money from this game while the house edge will not be able to overcome you because of the non-self-weighting effect of those very large bets. Further more, you also will make sure that your playing strategy will totally eliminate the house edge and even give you a little edge. Only a few index numbers will do the trick.

Puiu
PS: It will come a time when, if they didn�t get you in the very beginning then will not get you at all

MrFellow

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Jul 17, 2002, 3:24:13 PM

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Amount of free time they have on their hands? (nt)

Frank Stanton

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Jul 17, 2002, 3:35:42 PM

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You have amplified the reason for

charting. You are also playing footsie with a thing called
dumb luck. I'll take it, first and foremost.

Cyrus

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Jul 17, 2002, 4:16:00 PM

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You have completely misunderstood

the concept of non self-weighting strategies. Can't you understand that for some time now your posts are ludicrous in the extreme? People are laughing!

"Self-weighting gambling strategies are those in which many plays are made for approximately same size of bets (or a small bet spread), while successful non self-weighting strategies attempt to identify where the gambler has the best of it and then to make the most of it (like betting the table limit while on a wining streak and the count is positive). ..."

Bullshit.

"...This type of betting would never be possible with the classic card counting betting strategy."

And bullshit again.

"Classical" betting strategy is by definition a winning strategy, i.e. a strategy which provides the player with an edge. If, for a particular game, a correct betting strategy (not the optimal, but a winning strategy) calls for a betting spread of at least 1-20, so be it, 1-20 it is. (Whether the player can get away with 1-20 at that particular game is another matter.) Your ideas about betting strategy are either bogus ("always get up a winner") or plain dangerous ("use a progression to max out").

Read Mason Malmuth's book again. Pay particular attention to his chapter on variance and risk. See if you can learn something, anything, that'll help you shake those preposterous ideas.

--Cyrus

Igor

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Jul 17, 2002, 4:33:00 PM

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Capitalize on those streaks.

And all that�s required is the exciting, new Ron Popeil 21 Dealer Extrapolater.

Sure, maybe the uniformed think it looks like a colander with chin-strap and curled wires coming from the holes but YOU KNOW BETTER!!

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The Grifter

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Jul 17, 2002, 11:25:17 PM

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say what??

"...successful non self-weighting strategies attempt to identify where the gambler has the best of it and then to make the most of it (like betting the table limit while on a wining streak and the count is positive)"
---------------

What does "being on a winning streak" have to do with it? G

D30

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Jul 17, 2002, 11:54:30 PM

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Volatility to consider in Splits vs. Hit

Without doing the calculation, it's easy to see that the standard deviation of a hit is slightly under 1 unit (slightly under because of pushes), and for the split is somewhat over two (over because you'll be able to DAS -- which you can expect roughly 15% of the time, and there's also the roughly 7.5% chance of drawing a card and splitting again).

Whether you want the volatility at any particular juncture depends on lots of factors -- including the current status of your bankroll. Even for highly proficient counters, if you can't get away with or have to use camouflage for big spreads or if you don't have a lot of money on the table at the getgo, this game pays about as well as bussing tables at Wendy's based on expectation alone.

Without volatility, I'd be back to my full time job.

Puiu

bigplayer

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Jul 18, 2002, 12:38:22 AM

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how I wish this was true

but how do you know when to capitalize? The sheer randomness of streaks that occur, not just in blackjack but any game of chance or in nature, dictate that streaks of the opposite nature are just as likely to start at the exact moment you begin to increase your bet.

bigplayer

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Jul 18, 2002, 12:41:05 AM

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LOL, BTW, Ron Popeil

was on the board of directors of Mirage Resorts prior to the takeover by MGM Grand. I don't know his current status other than the fact that I see him on TV harking his various products in info-mercials.

pat

Posts count: 309

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Jul 18, 2002, 2:26:05 AM

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igor,dont forget

after people win all that extra cash from the helmet-they can finally afford one of those ron popeil POCKET FISHERMAN.now when you spend all morning loading your car up with fishing supplies you can finally throw out those pesky poles that actually work and replace it with fishing device that fits in your glove box.ahhh-blackjack the rewards of this game.

Puiu

Posts count: 103

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Jul 18, 2002, 3:25:59 AM

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I�m telling you how I do

Suppose your bankroll is 200 max bets of 500 each for a total of $100,000 or 1,000 units and you are playing in a $100 minimum game. Your betting strategy is for you to bet minimum on negatives and increment to TC *100 on all the positives up to 500 MAX bet. Now, suppose you hit a winning streak when the dealer is breaking and you reached the MAX and keep winning. Let�s say you won your MAX and regardless of the count you win again and again and again. Remember?

If you would have parleyed your winning above the MAX like this � 750, 1200, 2000, 3000, 4500, 5000. Once you surpassed the next bet above your MAX you have absolutely NO RISK associated with the next bet that is the 1200, 2000, 3000, 4500 and the table limit of 5000. Those big bets have nothing in common with your strict rules that governs your bankroll. (i.e. number of units, minimum bet and the MAX bet). You will respect the bankroll up to the MAX anything above that point you got to be into a winning streak to proceed further. This way you have a free shot to the big $$return. This way you capitalize and the long streaks when the dealer is breaking by betting all the way to the table limit, it is absolutely possible to extract large sums of money from this game while the house edge will not be able to overcome you because of the non-self-weighting effect of those very large bets.

Once you�ve reached the table limit, win or lose that limit you will have substantial profit. You must play perfect counting strategy (betting and playing your hands) within your bankroll up to the MAX. After you surpass the MAX you enter in aggressive mode with the intention to hurt them. At this point in time your bankroll is taking a break from action. You already got your EV from the classic counting play/betting ..etc.

Now, all this is true if we assume that you are a winning player in the first place. You got to have a winning system and be able to beat the game in the long run by only applying the classic count system. Your playing strategy with 2:1 spread got to be able to reduce the house edge to ZERO. From that point on is up to you how hard you want to hurt them.

Puiu

Posts count: 103

Topics count: 19

Jul 18, 2002, 9:38:05 AM

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Here you have the BASIC code to prove that my theory is valid


�Betting module

PlaceBet:

Bet(P, 1, 0) = 1

Bet(P, 1, 1) = 0: InsBet(P) = 0

IF rc >=2 AND rc <=6 THEN Bet(P, 1, 0) = rc  �bet by the count

IF rc < 0 THEN Bet(P, 1, 0) = 1   �if count negative bet 1 unit

�IF Win@ >=3 THEN Bet(P, 1, 0) = Win@ + Win@/2  �parley if win >=3

IF BiggestBank& < Bet(P, 1, 0) THEN BiggestBank& = Bet(P, 1, 0)

MoneyAction& = MoneyAction& + Bet(P, 1, 0)

RETURN

==============================================================
Note that I use the same seed for both setups. This one where I parley anytime the win is 3 or more: IF Win@ >=3 THEN Bet(P, 1, 0) = Win@ + Win@/2 �parley if win >=3


The seed was 22022.65 

  Dealer has garnered -19492.5 

  Player 1 won  19492.5 on a handle of 1000000   or   1.09123%

  Players results have a Standard Deviation of +/-1483.24 or 0.08303%

  A maximum of 39 cards were dealt from the shoe.

  Total Action was =  1786292 

  Average Bet was  =  1.786292 

  Highest Bet was = 108 

  Longest Losing Streak (Generic).............. = 20 

  Longest Wining Streak (Generic).............. = 18 

  Lowest  Bank(P) = -222.5 

  Highest Bank(P) =  19572 



  Win on Positive  = 178188 

  Win on Negative  = 207033 

  Lose on Positive = 212317 

  Lose on Negative = 210589 



  Percentage of Winning Hands = 44.598%

  Percentage of Losing Hands = 48.637%

  Percentage of Push Hands =  6.765%



Income per hour = 1.94925 units

 ==================================================

Note that I use the same seed for both setups. This one where I bet by the count alone because the line code is commented
�IF Win@ >=3 THEN Bet(P, 1, 0) = Win@ + Win@/2 �parley if win >=3


 Round 1000000 was completed at:    07-18-2002 06:12:21

  The seed was 22022.65 

  Dealer has garnered -12387 

  Player 1 won  12387 on a handle of 1000000   or   0.83592%

  Players results have a Standard Deviation of +/-1483.24 or 0.10010%

  A maximum of 39 cards were dealt from the shoe.

  Total Action was =  1481832 

  Average Bet was  =  1.481832 

  Highest Bet was = 6 

  Longest Losing Streak (Generic).............. = 20 

  Longest Wining Streak (Generic).............. = 18 

  Lowest  Bank(P) = -219.5 

  Highest Bank(P) =  12616.5 



  Win on Positive  = 178188 

  Win on Negative  = 207033 

  Lose on Positive = 212317 

  Lose on Negative = 210589 



  Percentage of Winning Hands = 44.598%

  Percentage of Losing Hands = 48.637%

  Percentage of Push Hands =  6.765%



Income per hour = 1.2387 units

===============================================================

In the first setup I make 1.9 units per hour while when I bet by the
count I make only 1.2 with the same fluctuation but the EV is greater
when I parley after a win then I bet strictly by the count.
You can see for yourself the effect of the �non self-weighting� on
the big bets that puts more money in my pocket with out any risk
whatsoever to the main bankroll.

Puiu

Puiu

Posts count: 103

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Jul 18, 2002, 10:07:07 AM

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IF Win@

IF Win@ >=3 THEN Bet(P, 1, 0) = Win@ + Win@/3 �parley if win >=3

This set up get you even more units per hour (2.2 / hour)
====================




Round 1000000 was completed at:

                                07-18-2002 07:03:16

  The seed was 22022.65 

  Dealer has garnered -22349.5 

  Player 1 won  22349.5 on a handle of 1000000   or   1.24086%

  Players results have a Standard Deviation of +/-1483.24 or 0.08235%

  A maximum of 39 cards were dealt from the shoe.

  Total Action was =  1801135 

  Average Bet was  =  1.801135 

  Highest Bet was = 77 

  Longest Losing Streak (Generic).............. = 20 

  Longest Wining Streak (Generic).............. = 18 

  Lowest  Bank(P) = -283 

  Highest Bank(P) =  22405.5 



  Win on Positive  = 178188 

  Win on Negative  = 207033 

  Lose on Positive = 212317 

  Lose on Negative = 210589 



  Percentage of Winning Hands = 44.598%

  Percentage of Losing Hands = 48.637%

  Percentage of Push Hands =  6.765%



Income per hour = 2.23495 units

Jarhead

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Jul 18, 2002, 12:56:14 PM

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Splits and doubles

This week, I got a pair of 3's against a dealer 6, split them and got two more 3's. Two of these situations resulted in a double down situation. I had 6 times the amount of my original bet on the table. By using your method, what about this situation with a table max bet?

Duke of Double Down

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Jul 18, 2002, 1:51:42 PM

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Far out man!

That is so cool to have a code for playing blackjack. The casino cats must be really down wondering what you and your cats are doing to fill your stashes with the casino coin. No way can the cubes bad vibes overpower the postitive you cats are putting out. Have a really mellow trip man. Peace

studio audience

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Jul 18, 2002, 2:08:39 PM

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Bet it..........And Forget it (nt)

Nick Nock Noodle

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Jul 18, 2002, 5:12:59 PM

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Grifter Has a Sure Way to Win

Counting is not even involved LOL

Steephen

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Jul 18, 2002, 6:25:53 PM

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pseudocode example

Whats the poor computer going to do with an Rc of greater than or equal to zero and less than 2. Wherever you copied this from you forgot a line.

bigplayer

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Jul 18, 2002, 10:42:02 PM

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you would be way overbetting

your bankroll if you had won your max $500 and then jumped to a supermax of $750 and then split and doubled 3 or 4 times.

Puiu

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Jul 19, 2002, 12:15:30 AM

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Betting ONE unit

Whats the poor computer going to do with an Rc of greater than or equal to zero and less than 2. Wherever you copied this from you forgot a line.

Betting ONE unit. When the program enters the Betting module is betting automatically ONE and then checks for conditions. Got it?

Puiu

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Which concept separates the winners from the losers?