Was I cheated?

The other day I was playing a shoe game S17 DO2 DAS LS BJ pays twice initial wager. I was playing BS flat betting one unit for 2500 rounds. I lost 120 units. What are the chances of this result occuring in a honest game?
Thanks,A.

..., and that is not out of expectation.

One StDev is about 2.3% for 2500 hands. So your lost falls within two StDev, about -115 units. You are right there.

Be glad that you lost 120 units only, because playing Basic Strategy with flat bet is a losing system to begin with.

I don't understand why people still play Basic Strategy with flat bet.
If you flat bet this game you will lose no matter what.

Flat bet doesn�t work because the player is losing more hands then the house. So, is no way to make it. You cannot overcome the house edge by flat bets. That's a classic known fact! You didn't know this?

StreakSniffer

Aria,
Pardon my ignorance, but what do you mean by "BJ pays twice intial wager"?

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Is this somethinh new or am I mis-reading the statement??? Thanks in advance for your rely.

Zman

Well, If that's the case you probably have been cheated.
But again, I don't suspect cheating on a shoe games. But who knows?

Anyway, forget about my math in the previous post.
Must be something else, because a 2:1 pay on BJ is a heavy advantage for the player. Unless you didn't get your 4-5 BJ�s per hour.

StreakSniffer

If so, BJ pays 2-1 meant you are being paid your initial wager plus even money, or a "1-1" BJ actual payoff. You said 2500 rounds, that is why I guessed. 2500 rounds is about 25 hours of play, no one is going to play one game that long at one place as in "the other day"...

If it was video or online BJ, you were not cheated, you just did not understand the payoff schedule accurately. Your negative return is still a bit beyond EV, but not by much.

Where was this game?

"The other day I was playing a shoe game S17 DO2 DAS LS BJ pays twice initial wager. I was playing BS flat betting one unit for 2500 rounds.
I lost 120 units. What are the chances of this result occuring in a honest game?"

If you are talking about Video Blackjack, see The Mayor's response above. If you are talking about regular casino Blackjack, you have around a 1.9% edge with that game. Flat betting 1 unit per hand you're expected to be ahead after 2500 rounds by

0.019 * 1 unit/round * 2500 rounds = +47.5 units

That's your Expected Value. The Standard Deviation after 2500 rounds is

1.1 unit/round * (square root of 2500) = 55 units

After playing 2500 rounds, you are expected to be within a range of +102.5 and -7.5 units, with a confidence of abt 68.3%. Within a range of +157.5 and -62.5 with a confidence of 95.4% and within +212.5 and -117.5 with 99.7%.

You were a bit more than 3 SDs to the worse. You have been cheated!
However, it is still uncertain whether you have been cheated by the dealer or your lucky star.

--Cyrus

I played a 2:1 promo and lost 93 units over 15 hours...

That makes a big difference. The reason it double on BJ rule does is nobody offers a game, other then a temporary promotion, that pays 2 to 1 on BJ's and expects to make money. Unless they have some type of other adavantage. Another question, it's not worded "blackjacks pay 2 for 1? This is another way of saying "even money", they'll pay you two units and take your one.

If not then the game has to have some kind of underlying house advantage that isn't apparent (yes, including cheating). Where is this casino located?????

Zman

�I don't understand why people still play Basic Strategy with flat bet.
If you flat bet this game you will lose no matter what."

Actually, in those scarce SD games with S17, DA2, and DAS, the BS player has a .13% long-run advantage (.16% with composition-dependent BS), and that's not counting the comps.

It was 10 hours game head on at 250 hands/hour. It was BJ pays 2 to 1. You bet one unit and if you win you are paid 3 units (including the original bet).A.

I managed to lose out on the Stanley Acropolis Bonus BJ bonanza, a few months back, though this was mainly due to not being able to deposit enough funds due to processing problems.
The edge from 2-1 promos alone does not conclusively give you a win in any short space of time. If the bonus payment is not made immediately (as with SA) tapping out before the promotion is concluded is a real possibility.
I've also played online where I had an 8% advantage on a particular promotion and still lost. The game was not rigged. This sort of thing happens when you do an awful lot of gambling-you play so many trials you begin to encounter extreme statistical abnormalities.

will not overcome the house edge, either!

That's a classic known fact! You didn't know this?

You were a bit more than 3 SDs to the worse. You have been cheated!

This would be strong evidence if the sample was truly unbiased. However, it is not. Aria would not have posted here if the results had not been out of the ordinary.
Because of this you'd need at least 4 SD to be absolutely certain of some form of dishonesty on the casino's part.

Yes, I did. I wasn't contradicting, just elaborating.

Many posters have said "Yes this is an unusual event, therefore you were cheated." I disagree.

Rare events happen. Suppose your house got hit by lightning. Now you can look up the odds of that happening. Would you say "This is So unlikely, does this mean that God was punishing me? Does it mean that my ex-wife put a hex on me? Are the terrorists out to get me?"

I would say, somebody has to be unlucky enough to hit by lightening, it jus6t happened to be you.

Before determining if you were cheated, we should know a little bit more about the situation. Was this a regulated casino? How strong is the regulatory body.

You said this was a Shoe game, so it is unlikely that anyone is dealing seconds. Was there any evidence of false dealing? Did the dealer use selective hole card techniques.

Did you count down the Shoes. Did they usually end in a high running count (indicating that pack had been shorted)?

I think is good that you are suspicious of cheating. I think you look for evidence of cheating. But I wouldn't conclude that you were cheated without additional evidence.

Look I once played a Shoe broke 20 times in a row. What are the odds of that happening. Did that mean that the dealer was cheating for the players?

In fact, the larger part of EV from any counting system is gained through bet variation.

The KO rookie system consists of exactly that - proper basic strategy plus increasing one's bet when the count calls for it.

Of course, that is not a particularily powerful system, and any system will be improved dramatically by using even a small number of strategy variations.

Still, proper bet ramping alone is enough to overcome the house advantage in all but the very worst games.