Variation?

I am a recently new counter who plays double deck at a decent sized Southern California Indian casino. I have played a few times at their dbl deck game, with great results. The thing is that last night i played their game, which has good rules, ie, resplit everything except aces, double after split, can increase the number of spots i play, although their is a no mid shoe entry rule. And the dealer was giving me good penetration, about 60%. Before last night i had never had a losing night, consistantly up a few hundred dollars each session. HOwever last night, playing head up, I was taken for $800 in about 45 minutes. Was this just variation or was I doing something wrong?

Anxious,

That is common. With the combination of game conditions, speed of dealing and your bet spread+counting system, one can calculate the win rate per hour. Your results will take a while (few hundred hours) to reach this value. Variance rubs both ways and after a good run on the positive side , you got the see the negative variation. But watch out for seconds being dealt,especially if cards occasionally seem to slip out of the dealer's and the dealer rarely busts.

To answer you directly, you can indeed have a loss that you mentioned for the time played. However, to be accurate I would need the rules and spread that you used.

regards
waugh

You can read many posts on this site about variance. Reaching the long run is more than a few hundred hours of play. The best analogy I can use is the blackjack advantage play is like a roller coaster; many ups and downs, with some being very steep. You can win or lose very quickly when playing heads up with a high count.

the rules are pretty normal. resplit everything except aces, das, no surrender, h17. spreading 1-4 on dbl deck

Anxious,

I would recommend using a larger spread (I am not aware of the specific casino in question and their ability to take large spreads) but sure you should try atleast 1-6 if not more. If you are a red chipper like me, you can get away with 1-8 easily in most places but again the places I play are different.I am used to significantly larger spreads but those are 6 and 8 Deckers. You have come to the right place and there are tons to learn.For starters read through all the articles and join the GC forum. The investment will pay many times over.

regards
waugh

so what betting ramp should i use if i choose to go with the 1-6 spread?

anxious,

You asked for the optimum 1:6 spread for a DD, H17, DAS game with 60% pen. You failed to specify your count system, so I assumed HiLo with Sweet 16 indexes. You also didn't mention your BR, so I used $10K. I also used 3 total players at the table.

I input the game into CVCX and asked for the optimal bet schedule subject to the constraint of betting in "minimum bet" units. The software produced this output:

Bet $17 (1 unit) for TC<=0
Bet $34 (2 units) at +1
Bet $68 (4 units) at +2
Bet $102 (6 units) at +3 and up.

This will win $27.07/hr with a RoR of 13.4%.

If I guessed wrong on any of the parameters, let me know and I'll regenerate the results.

By the way, I'd suggest increasing your spread. If you spread 1:12 ($14-$168, with max bet at +5), your RoR will be 13.5% (nearly the same), but your win rate will soar to $46.95. If you play on a $10 and get brave enough to spread 1:23 ($10-$230, with max bet at +6), your RoR will be 13.3% but your win rate will be $60.13.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Lots of great advice here and I'm a newbie myself. FWIW, the rules of the DD game you are playing are not that great. They really are marginal at best given the low penetration. Many seem to be telling you to increase your spread, but I was banned from playing BJ in a local casino here just recently. I was only spreading 1-4 with red chips. Sure my camouflage must have been terrible, but even so suggesting a 1-6 or 1-12 spread on a local DD game I think is asking for trouble, particularly if you are playing their frequently.

Losing $800 in a session is pretty easy. My advice is to not expect to have more winning sessions than losing sessions if you play the same length of time each session. However, over time your winning sessions will be a higher total than your losing sessions.

I hope you are only posting these results to demonstrate the larger win rates, yet same RoR with larger spreads and not actually advising him to use a 23-1 spread on DD at his local casino or it won't be his local casino for long. lol

Dog, thanks for the help, but I have some more info for you. The count i am using is in fact the Hi Low Lite, with the Illustrious 18 indices.

Also, I obviously try to play heads up with the dealer as much as i can, which I have had decent luck at finding empty tables. But most of the time there is 1 other player there, and occasionally 2 others.

The bankroll i have is about $7000, but the thing is that i dont have all of the cash sitting at home waiting to be put into action. I read that if i determine i have $X in expendible bankroll each year, i can devide that number by 12, giving me a monthly bankroll, but still allowing me to use bet spreads and max bets as if i had a much higher total bankroll. So the thing is that i may only go to a casino with $200-300 in cash, but i play like i have $7k-$10k total in my bankroll. Is this an incorrect way to go about things?

Do you bring $200-300 in cash to a casino or do you lose $800 in 45 minutes? To answer your question, bringing $200-300 to a casino and betting as if you have a $7000 bankroll is a very risky way to play. If you don't mind leaving after 15-30 minutes after you've lost your money, go for it.

The one time i brought $800 was after a few good trips, when i got ahead of myself. Usually i bring $200

With a $7000 bankroll, $200 is a bit too little to carry into a casino for a 1/2 hour to 1 hour session. I see nothing wrong with buying in with $100, losing it and buying in for another $100, and then leaving if things aren't going well. For the local casino's it appears as you are a typical gambler that has lost their allotted gambling money and leaves.

OTOH, you don't want to lose your $200 just as you get into a high count shoe. I used to just carry in $100-$200 dollars with me. Now I will carry in $500-$600 dollars which is still barely enough for a short session with my current bankroll of $7000. I've had short sessions where I keep buying in for a total of $500 and yet leave 20 minutes later up $300.

that i am playing a dd game, not a shoe, so its not very likely that i would be leaving something that is going to last for a long time at an extremely high count.

and when i build my bank to a higher level, then maybe ill be aboe to take 500 into the casino, but until that time, i can only take $50-$200.