Variance Distribution

Hi,

I've observed that some players are "luckier" (positive variance) than others, such as myself, who seemed to get the bad cards. In a bad day, bad luck follows me like an angry horde of hornets from table to table. Does "variance" evenly distributed among players in the long run? Or does it follow the rule of life, where some are born better off than others?

I've observed that some players are "luckier" (positive variance) than others, such as myself, who seemed to get the bad cards. In a bad day, bad luck follows me like an angry horde of hornets from table to table. Does "variance" evenly distributed among players in the long run? Or does it follow the rule of life, where some are born better off than others?

Variance does not discriminate.

The problem is that the variance in blackjack is large in relation to the expected value.

There is a another mathematical concept, N0, which refers the number of hands you need to play before the expected value equals 1 standard deviation. In other words, how many hands you need to play to have an 84% of being ahead. For a game with a SCORE of 50, N0 is 20,000, or about 200 hours of play. To get to 2 and 3 standard deviations, you need to multiply N0 by 4 and 9, respectively.

Rick,

Some of us newbies may not live long enough to see that EV. No wonder people been talking about bank roll. I suppose playing blackjack for the long run result is like a long distance car race. If you run out of gas 1/2 way or 3/4 way, you are not going to win the prize! Very few winners then.

Nowadays, we do 1 billion round simulations, at a minimum, for serious work. But a professional blackjack player normally plays somewhat less than a million rounds in an entire lifetime. It's nice to do a series of 1 million rounds sims once and a while, just to see what can happen.

Results will vary all over the place. One counter might win at the rate of 0.5%, the next -- with identical strategy, bet spread, etc. -- might win at 1.5%. Every once in a blue moon you will get a player, using a recognized counting system with an optimal spread, who loses money over his entire career (which I arbitrarily peg at approximately 10 years).

So yes, some people are born luckier than others. If that scares you off, you really, really ought to think about getting a real job.

ETF

ET FAN,

That is eye opening! Sometimes, I look at myself in the mirror and ask myself why I keep getting those 14s, 15s, and 16s (one time I got six 16s in the row). I personally know two guys who keep making money month after month although they don't even use any counting system. They use basic strategy and hunches. They seems to know when to bet big. They normally lose the small bets, but keep winning the big ones. In one hand, they would bet $25 or $50. The next hand they would bet $500 or $1,000. The casino don't even give them any heat. It's exciting just to watch them play.

Maybe they are the ones born lucky! I suppose the books are giving faults hope. You are among the very few that except the luck factor.

Here's some more false hope for ya:

"They seems to know when to bet big."

Highly doubtful.

"They normally lose the small bets, but keep winning the big ones."

Sure, on the hands you happen to watch, and the hands they tell you about.

"In one hand, they would bet $25 or $50. The next hand they would bet $500 or $1,000. The casino don't even give them any heat. It's exciting just to watch them play."

If they win any serious money, they'll be history, even if the casino can't figure out WTF they're doing. If they claim to make serious money, here's a little hint for ya: Many, if not most, gamblers lie about their winnings. Some even lie to themselves.

"I suppose the books are giving faults hope."

The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves ... People read all kinds of stuff into the books that just ain't there.

"You are among the very few that except the luck factor."

Just a matter of terminology.

ETF

Hi,

They could be lying about their wins. However, one of the guys, I have been watching him play 4 times and he won all 4 times. Last month he played 6 times and won a total $42,500. The casino don't even want to give him comp to eat at the buffet. Maybe soon they going to: Persona nongrata?