Under what condition that the player will have more chance to double down?

For BJ with D9(double down on 9, 10 or 11 only) rule. Is it possible to develope a method or counting system to predict under what condition(or what deck composition) that the player will more often to obtain first two cards total equal to 9, 10, or 11? For example deck rich in Ace, 2, 3, 7, 8 and T, could we say that the player will have higher chance to get first two total equal to 9, 10 or 11 for double down?

if we know that we have higher chance to get first two cards total = 9, 10 or 11 in the next round, should we bet big and then double down if we get first two cards total equal to 9, 10 or 11? Bear in mind that dealer will also have higher chance to get total 19, 20 or 21 under such circumstances !

cheers

ssho88

It's easy to see that the best chance to get 9,10 or 11 after two cards is at a clearly negative count when there is a surplus of low cards.Paradoxically, this puts the player at a disadvantage.Doubling situations show in many cases only a marginal advantage for the player, especially when the chance of getting a good card on the double is reduced as well as the chance of a dealer bust.

Francis Salmon

Are you going to double your 11 Vs 6 if TC < -3 ?
If your answer is YES, that means you have to double your hand if dealer get a bad card, regardless of the count!!!

The TC for strategy departures is computed just prior to your making your play. You have _already_ counted the dealer's up card by this time, as well as the two cards you were dealt, and if this is a face-up game, you have counted everyone else's initial hands, plus the hit cards of the players to your right. So if the TC says hit vs double, you hit, as all the information you have seen so far says that is the proper play... If you hit, and get a 16, against the dealer's 10 (say) you also count your hit card, recompute the TC, and then decide whether to hit again or stand...

I imagine one could formulate a system of tracking cards that would tell you when you would have more double-down opportunities in a D9 game. However, I don't think it would be worthwhile. As already pointed out in this thread, the player would need a surplus of small cards. This does two things: it means you would be playing at negative counts when the opportunities for double-downs rises, and while you may have a surplus of cards that will give you a two-card total of 9, 10 or 11, you have a deficit of large cards that will give you a good hand when you double. It is also important to note that the biggest advantage gained by counting cards comes when the possibility of receiving a natural rises - not from double-downs. While they are a valuable part of playing, double-downs will not make up the deficit you face. Raising your bets in the situation you describe would be costly, because even though your doubling opportunities might be greater, the gain from those doubles will be smaller due to fewer big cards, you will get more stiff hands, fewer blackjacks, and the dealer will have a greater chance of completing his stiffs without busting.

I'd always double 11vs6 since the index is around -15. Besides, I'd be gone before the count got anywhere near that low.

I agree Bootlegger... It's pretty risky when you only get one card and the best it will probably do is get you a 15 or 16 and the dealer has the opportunity to keep drawing... :)