Two questions

I'm playing at a casino with the following rules:

6 decks
No Double after split
Can double on any two cards
Can only split once
No surrender, late or early
Dealer stands on soft 17
Aces can be split once and are then treated as double downs
Dealer checks for blackjack

I suspect these are rather unfavorable rules. However, on the other side, I'm ahead close to $6000 in just over 20 hours, spreading 10-500 aggressively (and probably inaccurately as I am still somewhat new to the game, about 6 months of play) with no heat. I'm using a basic Hi-Lo count.

I sense that I am getting very lucky in combination to spreading aggressively and playing good BS.

My two questions:

1) What is the casino edge with these rules?

2) How far are my results from expectation? Like should I just quit while I'm ahead?

Thanks for any comments.

I can't give you any certain numbers on the house's advantage. Though, considering the rules, I'd estimate you disadvantage to -0,5>1%.

A 50 unit spread, with no heat, must be every blackjack players dream. Man, you are in blackjack heaven. Stay there as long as you are allowed to play with this enormous bet spread!!! With a spread like that, you can play against rules, where you have 2-3% disadvantage (if not more) and still end up a long terem winner.

/Robert V. Lux

PROFESSIONAL BLACKJACK ANALYZER

Results for file: C:\PBA437\QUICKS.txt
July 7, 2002

The following rules were specified in the rules menu:
R>---------------------------------------------------
6- deck shoe
Insurance offered
Dealer stands on soft-17
With dealer blackjack, player...

Loses one bet max
On ties, player pushes, except...

Loses with 22-26
Split to make two hands
Doubling allowed on aces
OK to split unlike 10s, like J-Q
Check hole card under 10, A
Double any hard total
Soft doubling allowed
After splitting...

No hard doubling

Shufffle used was: Random Swaps
Dealt to 80 cards remaining.
R>--------------------------------------------------

The following counting system was used:
C>--------------------------------------------------
System name: Hi-Lo

Count indices...
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1

Minimum count for playing decisions: -10
Maximum count for playing decisions: 10
C>--------------------------------------------------

B>---------------------------------------------------
The following betting system was used:
tam18

On count... Bet...

<= 0 $10.00

=+0 $10.00

=+1 $100.00

=+2 $200.00

=+3 $300.00

=+4 $400.00
>=+5 $500.00

Play through all counts
True count is running count per 1. deck(s)
B>---------------------------------------------------

The following simulation results were obtained:
S>---------------------------------------------------
Edge: 1.15
Standard error: 0.03
Sigma: 2.33
Desirability index (DI): 4.94

Number of hands simulated: 54,290,000
Number of hands aborted: 0
Average hands per shoe: 42.20
Number of extra players: 0
Simulated hand is at position: 0
Number of cards burned at start of shoe: 0
Number of cards to remove and count...

before player decision: 0

after player decision: 0

Average initial bet: $64.12
Profit per hand: $0.74
Standard deviation per hand: $149.09
Profit per 100 hands: $73.65
Standard deviation per 100 hands: $1,490.85

Win percentage of total hands: 43.32%
Loss percentage of total hands: 47.74%
Tie percentage of total hands: 8.94%
S>---------------------------------------------------

Detailed simulation results:
D>---------------------------------------------------
Count: Edge: % of hands: Average Bet: St. Dev.:
-10 -05.42 00.05 $10.00 $10.629
-9 -04.21 00.10 $10.00 $10.701
-8 -03.55 00.19 $10.00 $10.778
-7 -04.03 00.37 $10.00 $10.857
-6 -03.40 00.67 $10.00 $10.907
-5 -03.09 01.22 $10.00 $11.024
-4 -02.41 02.11 $10.00 $11.204
-3 -02.00 03.86 $10.00 $11.264
-2 -01.61 06.69 $10.00 $11.313
-1 -01.24 12.29 $10.00 $11.339
-0 -00.78 18.95 $10.00 $11.315
0 -00.59 08.85 $10.00 $11.295
+0 -00.32 18.05 $10.00 $11.301
1 00.15 11.80 $100.00 $113.433
2 00.68 06.44 $200.00 $227.333
3 01.22 03.72 $300.00 $342.595
4 01.80 02.04 $400.00 $459.563
5 02.57 01.18 $500.00 $578.615
6 03.24 00.64 $500.00 $581.261
7 03.81 00.36 $500.00 $582.824
8 05.07 00.19 $500.00 $584.795
9 05.13 00.10 $500.00 $583.436
10 04.82 00.05 $500.00 $585.339

The off-the-top house advantage for this game is .57%, according to Stanford Wong's Blackjack Edge program.

You left out one important piece of information: penetration.

Depending on the penetration, this game may be anything from exceptional to unplayable.

So, what is the penetration? How many decks does the dealer cut off with the cutcard?

you've got a $500 max bet! What is your current bankroll?

About $20K. I have spent a few years working 9-5 and am now enjoying some time off...

I'd say between 1 and 1.5 decks.

>Number of cards burned at start of shoe: 0

-> This should be 2

> Number of other players: 0

-> This is almost always 6

Thank you for the information. Could you put it in a bit of context for me; eg, what is the "Desirability Index"? Is 4.94 a good number? It seems like its a fairly profitable game, but the variance might be a bit on the high side (though I guess what should I expect, spreading 1-50!).

Proffesional Blackjack you should have at least 50 times your max bet for an extended weekend, or a lifetime BR of 150-200 times your max bet. So if you want the least risk possible you should lower your max bet between $100-$200. Actually, since your playing against such poor rules stick w/ $200. If you play with acceptable rules $100 would be OK.

There's a lot to learn from the information you've provided. Love those SD numbers! Quite the wakeup call to us non-math types.