true count never gets high

I have just started playing blackjack. The casino that I visit uses 6 decks and the penetration is approximately 70 - 75 %. I have played 6 two to three hour sessions and the maximum that the true count has reached has been 3 and this has only ocurred a few times a session.
Is this normal or have I just been unlucky??

Are you sure you are computing the count right ? Actually, I don't find it all that strange. Also, what is wrong with a +3 TC ? I assume you are using Hi-Lo . If it is H17 6 deck then you should basically get your max bet out at +3. Max bet at +4 on a S17 at least according to the strategy that I use.

Also, when the discard tray has 4 decks in it or even 3.85 decks , make sure you are dividing your RC by 2. 6 hrs really isn't long enough to gauge whether a casino is cheating. Is this an Indian casino ? I doubt they are pulling 10s out since they don't have to. Guess what, the majority of americans are terrible at blackjack.

I doubt they are pulling 10s out since they don't have to.

If they were pulling out tens, the count would go high more frequently than normal, not less frequently.

It's just that it would be a false high count. The remaining cards in the shoe would have a richer mix of small cards than the count indicates.

If the count has been running more often in the negative zone, it is either that they ADDED more face cards or just by happenstance that the big cards keep getting loaded to the top of the shoe. I'd be willing to bet my life against 10 cents they didn't add more faces.

I would be much more concerned if the count kept going high on the + side especially if it was an Indian casino. At least when it goes often to the - side, you know the faces are in the pack.

A while back, I estimated that I played or started to play 90 - 100 shoes during one weekend. What's weird is about 90% of that set went -1.5 or more again and again I kept having to Wong-out and look for another table. It was like I was playing musical chairs instead of BJ.

Things can sometimes get really lopsided and run negative for a long time.

I am confident that my counting is accurate. I am using the Hi-Lo count and the dealer S17. I've been using what equates to a $5- $60 spread therefore my maximum bet with a true count of 3 has been equal to $23. Should I be patient and stay with this 1 - 12 spread or can you advise me on a more appropriate betting spread.
The casino I use is in Europe.

If you are putting out $23 at +3 TC then you aren't spreading right. Your unit is $5 and max bet is $60. I advise a spread that looks like this and trust me you'll be much happier knowing you are getting more money out when you have the advantage:

TC
0....1 unit
1....2 units
2....6 units
3....9 units
4....12 units

So you should be betting 45 dollars at +3 TC . This is probably why you are unhappy with your results. You aren't getting enough money out there in positive counts.

Oh wait,

didn't know it was European hole card. I believe your disadvantage is even worse on that. You may need more than a 1-12 on that game. Give the exact conditions and I'll see if I can sim it for you or maybe one of the European players here can give more advice. In any case, you definitely are not getting enough money out in positive counts.

I usually run about a 1 - 20 spread depending on what I'm finding as I analyze the PC's and what I think they will tolerate without them thinking I may be a counter.

As for the count, it does get high. You just happened to have had a lot of negative count variance runs. I have seen many times the TC at +20 and the RC at + 40 or better with AOII.

"I have played 6 two to three hour sessions"

It means nothing, but you are probably in need of some software, and bankroll, and too much time on your hands.

6D, DAS, S17, DA2, resplit all pairs allowed except aces, one card only on split aces,insurance is available.
I think thats everything.
Played again Saturday night,TC much better this time however still not seeing any profit.

I need to know so I can accurately sim it. If it isn't, I believe the spread I layed out for you above will do the trick. You have to get more money out in positive counts. Think of it as putting your money into advantageous situations. When you are buying dinner, you aren't putting your money into advantageous situations. Actually, most of us rarely do.

You have to get that money out. I spread a minimum of 1 -12 and a lot of times I spread 1 - 30 or even 1 - 40. It is possible that you are getting crappy penetration and maybe not realizing it. It is good to spread 1 - 30 in case they are screwing you on pen. I typically will spread $10 to $300. I haven't had much trouble increasing my bankroll. I hope this helps and if you can afford that kind of spread, I recommend it. Also, you should be winning approximately 55 % to 60 % of your sessions. If you aren't, you are doing something wrong.

It is European no hole card.

I forgot to ask you if there was late surrender. If there is, these numbers aren't accurate. I set the sim with no surrender.

Ok. The 1 - 12 spread I laid out above was pretty accurate for this game even though it is european no hole card.

for a 1 - 12 spread the optimal spread looks like this:

TC
0....$5
1....$10
2....$30
3....$50
4....$60

You'll make about $12.28/hr . Your DI= 5.12 and your c-score= 26.23 . This is with 80 % pen .

If you only get 70 % pen, it changes. The above numbers look pretty good but I bet it is hard to find 80 % pen. You have probably been playing 70 % pen. Your c- score for this game is a terrible 15.13 and DI=3.89 . This isn't good and if you play 1 - 12 on a game like this, it will take you much longer to get into the long run. This could be why you feel like something is wrong and like you are paddling upstream.

Let's take the 70 % pen and increase our spread to 1 - 24. Playing $5 to $120 boosts your c-score to almost 22 and DI=4.68 . Or you could play 2 hands with a max bet of $ 60 . You get about the same results. 2 hands 5 to 60 gives 22.03, DI=4.69 and 18.77/hr .

2 hands
TC
0....2x 5
1....2x10
2....2x40
3....2x60

Boost it to $5 to $100 which you may be able to get away with. Gives:

C-score = 30 DI=5.44 31.39/hr which is much better. The NO for playing this way is 33,700 which I think is playable. Compare this to the 1- 12 spread earlier playing one hand which was 66,000 . Basically, if you play optimally with that 1 -12 spread you are playing with a NO of 66,000 which is pretty big. I would say that if you aren't playing optimally it is probably more like 75,000 . NO is the number of rounds you need to get into the long run. Hope this helps.

Does anyone know what an appropriate spread would be for an 8 deck, S17, DOA, DAS game with 75%pen? Also, in the appropriate spread for the 6 deck game you show, what do you do in TC of greater than +4? Do you just bet the max?

It is no surrender, 75% pen on average. If I was to play one hand with a 1-24 spread $5-$120,do i double the figures you provided for 2 hands with a max bet at TC of 3, or should i play the min bet at TC 0 and then double from TC 1- TC 3.
I would probably play 2 hands when possible, I haven't got the confidence yet to lay out $120 on one hand.

With all due respect ...

Are you insane!

:)

Or have the games deteriorated that much?

Anyone else like to weigh in here? I always considered any NO much over 10K to be a waste of time.

Best,
Syph

If you don't have enough confidence to put a $120 bet in, then maybe you shouldn't play bj. I'm telling you bare minimum what it will take to win. You may not have a big enough bankroll to take on that game. Many people don't and that is often why you see the minimums on many tables in the casino being raised. In the last 2 years, I can name many casinos that have raised their minimums from $5 to $15 and some to $25. They know that the higher the minimum, the more $$ you need to beat the game successfully. Nelmas, it will take a big spread to really conquer that game. I told you the bare minimum. If I was to sit down at that table. I would probably bet $5 to $300 and maybe even $400. Call me whatever you want but I don't like walking away a loser. I'd rather be thrown out after winning a lot of money than to half-ass it and lose a few hundred or win a few hundred and still be thrown out. This is how I play the game. This is my style. I am giving you advice. You can believe me or not. It is up to you. Investigate what the NO is on a $5 to $300 spread on the game above. I bet it is better than 33,000. I have played at tables where I knew my NO was around 30,000 so I still think it is playable but it will take you longer to beat the game than a 10,000 NO, for sure.

Nelmas, if you really want to play bj, though. You should probably try to find a better game. If you have to drive 6 hrs to find it, I would say it would be worth it. Maybe another European player on here can help you with that. I know for a fact that there are definitely good games in Europe. The game that you have is still better than a H17 game, though.

I won't ever play an 8 deck. If the my area becomes all 8 deck, I'm done with blackjack. Yes, +4 and greater is all max bet. Of course, if you have the bankroll, it is better to keep going and throw more money in. The higher the TC, the more likely it is for you to win the hand. Also realize though that this increases your variance and your standard deviation. Meaning some days you will lose a lot and some days you will win a lot.