As a means of thanking those that helped me with the indices before Christmas (I used about 20 of them), I'll give a short summary of my trip.
The setting was a casino in a foreign country - the only one in the city. The game was a six decker S17, no DAS, ES10, insurance, late surrender on anything other than a ten, ENHC for the ten (means if you split or double when a ten shows, you lose the entire bet if an ace is underneath). An added rule to partially compensate for the ENHC is that if you make a 21 in any way and that ace shows up under the ten, its a push!
This casino had several BJ tables, but only one with low enough limits for my bankroll. With one casino in town and only one playable table which was full most of the time, wonging was not an option.
The min/max bet spread was 1:30 and because this place had zero heat (almost no pit crew except nice lady dealers) I intended to make up for the slow play (approx 45 hands/hour with an always full table) and play-all requirement with a big spread.
Alas, my handy copy of BJA indicated my 300 unit trip bankroll was underfunded even with a 1:10 spread for a reasonable ROR. Important to note is that my main reason for going after this game was the typical penetration of one deck or less.
Results - Withdrew a total of 280 units over the first week. Lost every session except one prior to the New Year losing a total of 220 units. Those that play shoes know that THE HAND is the thing that makes or breaks you in this style of game. THE HAND turned out to be a true count of 10 (hi-lo)with one deck left where I bet 20 units on each of two hands. Dealer showed a 9. First hand was a 8+2 ten which I doubled picking up a 2. Second hand was a soft 14 which I hit twice picking up two more 2s. By now the count was in the stratosphere, but a soft 18 is not too useful against a nine, so I hit again picking up an 8 for a sixteen. Given the index for 16vs9 I stood (next card was a ten). With 60 units on the felt the dealer turns over his ten and bye bye to a good chunk of my bankroll.
At this point my wife was not convinced I knew the first thing about BJ and I wasn't so sure either. Try explaining the math to your sweetie pie after five straight losing sessions. You're a better man than me if you can.
But the New Year came and hope springs eternal, so after a couple of days off to reflect, back to the casino I go. Lost another 10 units in the first hour when THE HAND shows itself again. True count of 12 with less than a deck left, again I play two hands of 20 units each. Is there a God? I am about to find out.
Both hands are soft - A4 and A3. Dealer shows ....... a five! I double both hands getting useless tens on both of them. With 80 units on the felt the dealer turns over ..... a ten. At this point I and everyone at the table are screaming "Big One, BIG ONE!". The dealer turns over an eight and I am back in business.
I win all the sessions in the week after the New Year and go home with 380 units. Less my starting 280 I am a net 100 unit winner.
Over a two week period I played about 60 hours of 45 hands/hour with an average bet size of around 3 units. My net win of 100 units gives me an EV of approximately 1.2% which is well within expectation for the crazy swings I experienced.
For those who haven't played a lot I hope this gives you a feel for how meaningless EV is over the short term.
Since I have taken a second apartment in this city, in the words of Arnold S. "I'll be back".
UC
