Tip for Video Poker AP's Visiting Reno

I play a bank of machines at the Atlantis in Reno from time to time when the Progressive gets above $5100. The bank of machines are $1 machines and the progressive pays out at the $5 max bet. The progressive starts out at $4000 and goes up $0.025 per pull. It DOES NOT pay out the normal 8-5 progressive (what you normally see for Jacks or Better, which is what I play). It pays out a full 9-6 on full houses and flushes. I've read Stanford Wongs information here on this web sight concerning the Break Even Point (BEP) on 8-5 Jacks or Better progressive machines being around $8800 for $1 machines. Since this bank of machines pays 9-6, I've determined the BEP to be $5096.23. This is how I did my math using the simple Jacks or Better Strategy (found on the Wizard of Odds website) with a payback of 99.46%. If I am wrong in my logic, please someone correct me and set me straight.

1 - .9946 = .0054 or -0.54% loss per hand.

$5 per pull x .0054 = $0.027 loss per hand

40,601 hands (# of hand between royals playing perfect strategy) x $0.027 = $1096.23 loss if playing a full pay 9-6 jacks or better machine that pays $4000 for a royal flush. This is to say, that when I hit on a standard full pay 9-6 machine I will have lost a total of $5096.23 on average, and then recouped only $4000 once hitting the royal.

Therefore, for the above progressive (9-6 instead of 8-5), when the progressive hits $5096.23 its at the BEP, and when it is higher than this it becomes a winning game.

This is how the first column looks for Jack or Better:

Royal Flush 250
Straight Flush 50
Four of Kinds 25
Full House 9
Flush 6
Straight 4
Three of Kind 3
Two Pair 2
Pair, Jacks or Better 1

The $5 column looks like this:

Royal Flush Progressive
Straight Flush 250
Four of Kinds 125
Full House 45
Flush 30
Straight 20
Three of Kind 15
Two Pair 10
Pair, Jacks or Better 5

Today the Progressive was just above $7400 !!! This is the first time I've seen it above $7000. It's not uncommon to see it at $5500 to $6400 before someone hits and it resets to $4000. I sat at a machine for about twenty minutes. Out of the 14 machines that are in this bank, I think about 9 or 10 were being played at the same time (guess I wasn't the only one trying to hit the Royal Flush). Anywany, about twenty minutes into this session, I new guy sits down at the machine next to me, and on his third spin, he hits a Royal Flush. Damn, I was so close! I was there at the right time, but unfortunately,I just picked one machine off. Oh well. Anyway, for those of you who make it up this way to Reno and enjoy playing video poker profitably, this bank can be found at the Atlantis. It is located near the high limit slot area (half the bank faces in towards the high slot area and the other half faces out). It's just a few steps away from the players club counter. Good Luck!

If you read my first post I just got done figuring out my hourly rate for when the progressive is at $7400 like it was today. I used this information from Stanford Wong's publication on this Web Site:

"For 8-5 dollar machines into which you must
insert five dollars to be eligible for the jackpot, the
break-even point is a jackpot of about $8800 and each
additional $1000 in the jackpot adds about 0.64% to
your expected win rate. Playing 500 hands an hour on
the dollar machine means betting $2500 an hour, and
0.64% of that is $16 per hour."

Since the bank of machines I am talking pays 9-6 (not 8-5) the BEP is right around $5100. Therefore:

$7400 - $5100 = $2300

$2300 / $1000 = 2.3

2.3 x .64% = 1.47% total expected win rate

1.47% x $2500 = $36.75 expected hourly win rate when playing 500 hand

per hour

Too bad this bank of machines doesn't get this high that often, but it does happen. If my math is wrong in either post, please feel free to correct.

2goodformyowngood,

When the RF Progressive deviates significantly from $4K, you should optimally change your playing strategy in an effort to hit the RF. For example, with a $7400 RF on 9/6 JoB, the optimal strategy produces a RF cycle of only 32,815.40.

Dog Hand

Yes, I understand that I should deviate from the simple Jacks or better strategy I use (found at the wizard of odds website) in order to improve my chances of hitting the RF, more so as the progressive gets higher and higher. Unfortunately, I am playing a bit of a guessing game at this since I have yet to find a publication that addresses a Jacks or Better Progressive with a 9-6 payout structure. Standford Wong's publication addresses these deviations for the 8-5 game. These are a couple of the changes I make from the simple strategy. The other day, when it was at $7400, I drew three to to the royal flush two times, but also had a high pair, I threw away the high pair, and went for the royal instead, knowing that this is probably the best play considering how high the progressive was at that time. But when to make this switch (keeping the high pair versus going for the royal flush) is something I am not quite sure about. Another frequent occurance also comes up I noticed. Getting two cards to the royal and a small pair. I would also venture to guess that, when the progressive is high enough, that it makes sense to keep the two cards to the royal and throw the small pair away. I did this deviation several times as well when the progresive was at $7400. But again, this was only a guess on my part that it was the correct deviation to make based on how high the progressive was. Any suggestions on how I can make accurate decisions for when to make deviations such as these and others like them? Any help would be appreciated so I can maximize my chances of hitting the Royal. Thanks.

2goodformyowngood,

I generated the results using Video Poker for Winners, though other packages can of course perform the same analysis. VPfW is, in my opinion, a bargain at $49.95. Not only does it provide the EV for the game, it also provides the proper playing strategy and allows you to practice as well.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thanks, Very Helpful!