Thunderous Outrage

Stopped by the opening evening at Thundervalley Casino near Sacramento on my return from a week in Las Vegas/Laughlin.

Continous shufflers on every table, no single, double, or shoe.
Don't think anyone is interested in the DD, rules, etc. so will not post.

Thunderous Outrage is managed by the Station Casinos. Your boarding pass will get you comped.

Did not see many of the regurgitating shufflers (my term for them #@j98) at the Stations I played. Very poor penetration though; consistent with LV casinos I visited. Generally Laughlin was better penetration.

Enjoyed the tournaments, didn't get in finals but my wife nearly did; opponent need double on last hand; dealt the 6-5 and hit the King - ouch!

when I found out it was a Station Property. Only old ladies with a hankerin' for 8/5 Double Bonus Video Poker play there. Their player cards are worthless, the machines suck, even bingo sucks with non-random distribution on the Jumbo games (had to explain what that meant to my wife). They even think so poorly of their customers (locals) that they went and put in 6:5 SD here in Vegas. Sad thing is, the players are eating it up. Guess when tourism is in decline, many locals feel an obligation to give blood at the local 6:5 game to help the state economy.

Thunder Valley did have about ten tables of regular six-deck shoes for their first week. They were there on Sunday, June 15th, but on Monday, the area was roped off and the tables were being fitted with CSM's.

No single deck, no double deck, and now nothing but continuous shufflers. Might as well play a slot machine because there's no skill involved other than basic strategy, and no indication when to increase or decrease bet size.

I asked the pit boss about it. He said the CSM's allow them to deal more hands without shuffling delays. He said it as if it was for the players' benefit!!!

They have no live poker and no theater for headline entertainment (which many Indian casinos in this general area do have).The pit boss said there would be no live poker because it takes to much space for the amount of return, and no theater for the same reason..

I live quite close to Thunder Valley and have been eagerly anticipating their opening for months. Now I'm angry and bitterly disappointed. Guess I'll still have to drive 60 miles to Colusa or Feather Falls for a decent game of blackjack.

Does anyone know a way to beat these CSM's??? The only thing I've come up with is: sit at third base and count only the last hand and the cards in the current hand.

It is published in their patents that these machines have a latency to them. Some machines can take as much as 5 hands to begin showing cards from a previous rounds. There are mathematical processes which can be used to determine the latency of the particular machines. Also, look for dealers who don't immediately return the discards to the tray. It will no doubt take a large spread. This game is billed by the manufacturers to be unbeatable and so it may be really easy to spread large. Most CSMs that I have seen are 5 deck. I imagine all of them have at least a 1 round latency. Just look for nearly full tables where at least 10-15 cards per round are dealt and look for high TCs. Since there is no waiting for a shuffle, you can wong out and just watch several tables and then look for one that has a lot of littles one out.

Although CSMs are not on their way to becoming permanent fixtures, I think it will take some lost revenue for the casinos to chuck them. APs should be finding ways to beat these machines and then making it available to all APs. Casinos have their guard down when it comes to CSMs so I think there can be opportunity to catch them with their pants down.

Actually, I *prefer* playing a five or six deck shoe. I've have done quite well just by watching for rounds with clusters of high and/or low cards -- not even really counting, just "casing" the recently-played cards (three or four rounds, about one deck's worth) -- and adjusting my bets (or wonging out) accordingly.

About the CSM's, I calculate that five decks (260 cards less, say, 15 cards played and reshuffled into the deck), it works out to only 1 "old" card reintroduced to the next hand (if I'm doing the math right). In a six deck shoe it's slightly less significant. And that's not even considering the latency factor you mention.

Perhaps I've overestimated the affect of the CSM's. You've encouraged me to make a longer test run using my usual method of play.

About wonging out:: In a standard multi-deck shoe, some casinos have a rule that if you sit out even one hand you have to sit out the entire shoe. With CSM's, they can't do that, which makes it much easier to find something to distract you momentarily and then just say "Darn, I forgot to put my bet up."

Also, sitting out a hand or two can change the flow of the cards, so when things are going badly even when the cards should be favorable, by not playing a hand (or not hitting a hand you should have hit) -- you can sometimes reverse the trend. There are, of course, times when nothing seems to work and it's best just to go home.

Also, sitting out a hand or two can change the flow of the cards,

Would you please explain this?

If you believe in that kind of nonsense, then I doubt you are an AP. It would be useless for you to try to find an exploit in those machines then. However, if you are a ploppy, then by all means, sit out a hand, sit out several in fact. The reason is, for a non-AP, the best bet is no bet.

I've already said I don't count cards, and I don't claim to be an AP. I found it quite useful to watch for what I now know is called "clumping", and I've altered my beting strategy based on it -- many times to good advantage. I've also observed changes in the flow of cards when one player leaves a good table or when a new player comes to the table.

I think CSM's have changed the game substantially. So far I've been playiing on "their money" for over a year, but this past two weeks, playing on CSM's, I've lost more than at any other time during the past year. In any event, I asked for advice/suggestions on how to beat CSM's, not one-line smart-ass comments on my skill or lack thereof.

If you can't beat a shoe game, what makes you think you can beat a CSM? If you have been playing with their money, then that is great. You are experience the positive side of standard deviation. Without a long term advantage, your results are most likely going to head back to the other side of the curve. This "flow of the cards" stuff you talk about is worthless garbage. If a player leaves a million times and then things get bad, you can bet that a player leaving a million times will coincide with good things happening as well. We as humans only tend to think this flow stuff has an impact because we remember the events circulating around when things get bad. It's akin to learning from our mistakes. We remember something bad and we try to develop a cause so that we may avoid it again when that cause reappears. We associate players leaving to being the cause of events due to it causing a change in the distribution of the cards. So, in our natural will towards preservation, we remember what signs are associated with danger such as a player leaving, hitting when he should stand, etc. However, since we are not so inclined by preservation to remember these same changes causing good things we don't logically deduce that all these things are equal. It's like people at craps saying "...dice went off the table, next rolls gonna be a seven". On average I would say they are right about 1/6th of the time. They will still remember that one slim occurrence, though.

If you don't know your mathematical advantage, it's because you don't have one.

<< If you can't beat a shoe game, what makes you think you can beat a CSM? >>

I've been consistantly (about 75% of the time) beating the standard shoe game. As a $5/$10/$20 player, I've won as much as $1,200 in a 4-hour session (live play in a casino, not computer simulation.)

As for mathematical advantage, I don't see how there CAN be one with a continuous shuffle machine, and most of the dealers I talk with have observed a major increase in house advantage.

The CSMs increase the hands per hour. That is why they are showing an increased drop. They are dealing more hands.

Hands played X casino edge = Casino win.

Increasing hands played increases the win. Also, you have to consider the expertise of players that will play against a CSM. Smart players won't touch them, so their is bias there also.

It has nothing to do with mystical "clumping", or unpredictable "streaks", or phases of the moon, or sunspots, or ...