The Long Run

Is there a figure, a number of hands, of when one gets to "the long run"? Is it different for black jack, craps, roulette or bacarrat? The reason I ask is that some people make some stupid gambling moves and then say that they are not in "the long run" and it doesn't pertain to them. Of course these same people have been gambling for decades!

...under "Advantage Play" titled "Long Run Myths". Also see the posting by Bigplayer linked to below.

Cobbson

What is the answer for the person who has played craps for 40 years. He can do what he wants because the long run doesn't apply to him? Is there an intelligent answer for this?

...for most players, the long run is one roll of the dice, the first teaspoon of dirt in the hole you are digging to China.

Cobbson

There is no specific number that constitutes "the long run" for blackjack, craps, poker, or anything else. You can make certain predictions based on the specific bets a player makes. For example I can tell you if you flat bet with a 1.5% disadvantage, after 100,000 bets you are very, very unlikely to be ahead. After a million trials, it's impossible for all intents and purposes.

If someone made bets like that and came up ahead after 100,000 tries I would want to look VERY hard at the dice, and/or the shooter, and/or the dealer, cause SOMETHING is fishy. But that doesn't mean 100,000 or 1,000,000 equal the long run. It's long enough for me, but anyone can disagree.

or how long it takes for the casino to get into the long run at craps versus a player at a negative expectation game like Craps. The answer would depend exactly what types of craps wagers/strategy the player uses and the rules of the game (how much odds the casino offers). If it's 100x odds and the player only makes line bets for $5 and takes 100x odds the long run for the casino is very very very long. If the player bets $310 across (place bets) on all the numbers and there is only double odds the casino gets into the long run very quickly.

... it's still not a number. It's a theoretical concept, like infinity.

Unfortunately, math doesn't discriminate against the casinos or in favor of the players. I've had some long conversations with God about that, but it hasn't helped (so far).

A gambler announces that "the long run" does not apply to him, although you know for a fact that he has been playing for 40 years and is well into the long run. Perhaps he thinks he is on the home stretch and tossing those bones out there for the last time or two after 40 years. Maybe he feels that things that apply to everyone else simply do not apply to him? I've heard crazy gamblers say crazy things over the years that make no sense and have no logic backing them up and pay little or no attention to it all.

A recreational gambler that goes to a casino once a year or so with a small gambling budget as he attends his company annual convention probably doesn't need to give much heed to "the long run" as it simply does not apply to them.