The final chapter of my short blackjack venture....

Firstly, let me thank everyone how posted advice to the "This Sucks" thread, especially the guy who posted simulation statistics. Hearing that to make a decent profit I'd need to risk a massive amount of $$ with astronomical fluctuations in revenue certainly did not cheer me up, but ugly reality is better than pretty illusions I guess.

So I listened to advice and resized down my betting. $25 at TC +1, 2x$25 at TC +2, 2x$50 at TC +3, 2x$75 at TC +4, wong out at TC <= 0.

With that, I had another go for the past two days. Same pattern as before - first day and half of next day - a complete snore. Win a bit, lose a bit ... wonging out at TC = 0 means I am not playing most of the time, just staring at other players' cards. Nearly fell asleep. Then the pendulum of death swings again and I start getting massively hammered. TC is +3, Dealer gets 6 , I get 10,7 - 3,3 Math says split, I get another 3. Down goes another $50, now its 10,7 - J,3 - 7,3 - 8,3 vs 6 . The math says double, so double it is -- 10,7 - J,3 - 7,3,8 - 8,3,9 with $300 down on the table. The dealer draws - 6,J,5 He's done it again! No fist pounding this time from me, I am used to being a loser by now. Another hour of butchering and I am $1500 down. Thats $6500 IN THE RED since I got involved in this thing, and its been just a couple of weeks.

And you know what sucks? In one of the negative shoes with TC -2 or so, this fat high-roller parks down at the table, with a massive pile of $1000 chips in his hand and starts betting table maximum over 3 hands. He is standing on 14 vs 10, hits 13 vs 5, splits 7,7 vs 9, does everything the math says is wrong. Guess what, he cleaned the place in 2 hours' time - the pit boss had to go twice to get a suitcase of chips to replenish the stack to pay off this guy's winnings. Didnt make me feel any more better, I assure you.

And you know what really sucks? Yesterday I am playing and the dealer is the Speedy-Gonzales type firing cards at machine-gun speed, the noisy ploppies are smoking, hitting the table and yapping away - not exactly the best counting environment, and then these two drunken skanks sit down next to me, dont play, and start hitting on me instead. First they make dumb comments about my play - "Oh, ya already got yaself 16, whaddaya getting anotha one fo?", then comments about me - "Hey, hunny, are you a lucky guy?", then start molesting me directly - "Ooh, what a pretty necklace, can I touch the gem?". At that point I was completely losing my efforts to keep up with Speedy-Gonzales-on-steriods and was growling at those two in the hope they'd leave and find someone else to pester. Eventually they did, and then I proceeded to lose the $1500 and when finally leaving the place, I thought - Damn, one of them actually had a nice cleavage. The other one wasnt a looker, but was horny as a rabbit in heat, you could see lust drawn on her face. I felt like a total idiot for playing stupid cards instead of doing what I am supposed to be doing on a Friday night.

So, thanks everyone for advice and help, but I am adopting a new playing strategy from now on - next time I set foot in a casino, I keep a healthy distance from any blackjack table, I'll find those 2 chicks, apologise to them for such rude neglect of their affectionate attention and say that they are the most feminine and charming women I have ever laid my eyes upon and I will not rest in peace until I can make it up to them with an invitation to have some drinks. Judging by the amount of booze they already consumed when I saw them, this offer couldnt possibly be refused, and we can follow up with a dinner, shake some booty at the disco, see a movie, gamble for a bit - see how the mood goes. Then I'll take them for a ride to check out the nighttime scene and finally offer to park for the night at my hotel room. Then I'll do both of them until either we pass out from exhaustion or I run out of Viagra pills, whichever happens first. Now thats what *I* call a "game with good penetration"!

Thats the plan, ladies and gentlemen. I've had enough of blackjack. Good luck and may all your counts be abundantly positive!

Thanks for sharing your story, I am very sorry the gods graced you with such a negative EV swing right off the top of your playing career.

What do you think is worse? Losing a bunch playing a winning strategy, or winning a bunch playing a losing strategy? I'll give you a hint. Life is one big session.

--Mayor

He was just another ploppy who thought he was entitled to a steady income because he read a book or two on card counting. This guy shouldn't have gone anywhere near a 6 or 8 deck shoe unless he was wonging. (Actually he started out wonging but for some reason decided to abandon that strategy when he got "enough practice"... as if wonging is only for beginners). And I would be willing to bet that he rarely if ever deviated his strategy according to the count. The swings are too violent, you have to ramp up your bets too high, and you have to sit around forever waiting for a good count. If you are FORCED to play at such a game the only way to play is backcounting and waiting for a mid-shoe opportunity. He would've been better off if he travelled to a place which offered a decent double deck game. He didn't run the programs first... he trusted what he saw in the book... if he ran the programs he would see what kind of bankroll swings he was subjecting himself to by playing this game... it isn't a "steady income" or "easy money" that a lot of the books imply.

Mayor: "What do you think is worse? Losing a bunch playing a winning strategy, or winning a bunch playing a losing strategy? I'll give you a hint. Life is one big session."

The worst thing is to pursue a failed venture out of pride when common sense suggests its time to stop. Counting cards is not a "winning" strategy, its a "positive expectation" strategy - you are more likely to win, but doesnt mean that you will. How many consecutive losses should I be willing to take? $20 000? $50 000? And when, despite all the positive odds, you run out of money, how will you feel? "Gee, either I am an unlucky sob who is 4 standard deviations on the wrong side of the Bell curve or I was massively cheated by the casino crooks, or both. Now I just need to spend the next years of my life earning back what I threw away." Nice? Not.

when you can't(or don't) draw winning cards-skill is worthless.
The common sense to bet small is ignored by counters who tie the
count to the bet. 1/2 of one percent-thank you Stephen Adams.

"He was just another ploppy who thought he was entitled to a steady income because he read a book or two on card counting. This guy shouldn't have gone anywhere near a 6 or 8 deck shoe unless he was wonging. (Actually he started out wonging but for some reason decided to abandon that strategy when he got "enough practice"... as if wonging is only for beginners). And I would be willing to bet that he rarely if ever deviated his strategy according to the count. The swings are too violent, you have to ramp up your bets too high, and you have to sit around forever waiting for a good count. If you are FORCED to play at such a game the only way to play is backcounting and waiting for a mid-shoe opportunity. "

Do you really HAVE TO rub it in?? You could have at least read my post first. If you read, you'll notice I said I was wonging much more than before, in fact for the last week I was playing positive EV hands ONLY, wonging out at all TC of 0 or less. Thats about 75% of hands that I just stared at without putting any bets down. I memorised and used all indices for TC -1 to +5, not that it makes any significant difference in a shoe game. I practiced counting both at home and at the casino until I was making less than 1 mistake per shoe.

Secondly, I'd need to travel a long way to get a Double Deck game, they are nearly impossible to find outside United States. So the game I played is the best deal I could get, cant be too picky.

You are right that I understimated the massive fluctuations in this game, and now I dont really think its worth playing, wonging or not. Perhaps in a team, maybe its reasonable, otherwise, forget it.

Frank: "when you can't(or don't) draw winning cards-skill is worthless. "

Exactly. Even casinos will often cut their losses by sometimes barring a high-roller who happened to be extraordinarily lucky on a given day. Sure, chances are he'll lose it back next week, but can you be sure? Maybe he just looks like a ploppy but actually knows what he's doing and is using some very intelligent cheating system that you dont know about.

Sure, chances are I might get the $6000 back next week if I keep playing, but who knows, the casino might have found a very smart way of cheating me that I dont know about, or maybe I am just extremely unlucky. Either case can easily send me broke. The common sense indicates that if you are losing too much - quit, no matter if the mathematics say you have 1% advantage or 75% advantage.

Certainly you had reduced your exposure to negative EV hands by wonging out at zero, but, assuming that you're using hi-lo, for the 6d game you'd desribed in a prior thread, you aren't playing positive EV hands until just a sliver below +1.

You had stated that you had started with a $20,000 bankroll so I assume that you still have $13,500 left. So you may be done, but if you do change your mind and decide to continue to play I'd highly recommend that you join Greenchip, study the archives, and set your preferences back for 12 months and read in great depth EVERYTHING! If you haven't done so already, check out BJMath.com, an outstanding resource as well.
If you haven't purchased Blackjack Attack and read and re-read it multiple times, you've sold yourself short.

Why not try a new approach? Play crowded $5 tables where you can take your time and really get strong, hands on experience with relative impunity from the pit. If you're not ready for Speedy Gonzales dealers on steriods and females oogling over your gold chain, this approach may provided the seasoning you may need.

I liken your experience as that of a solid high school baseball player attempting to jump straight to the major leagues. Much more often than not, he will be overmatched, become flustered, and may actually be ruined as a result of such an experience. You've made an appearance at the big show, but you'd be better served taking a smaller paycheck and the accompanying seasoning you'll received in the lower rungs of the minor leagues.

Put your ego in check for a moment and realize that no one here is trying to rub anything into the wounds that you've experienced. Many here have gone through similar experiences as you've described and rather than give up, looked inward at their own shortcomings, retrenched, and, after extensive deep study and practice, reemerged to play a stronger. sounder game.

I've never been with a prostitute in my life, but trust me, on a few occassions, the thought did occur on the drive home from a devasting loss that the lost money could have leased an hour or two of the hottest babe real estate around.

One last thought: If you quit now, you weren't really playing to a $20,000 bankroll, but a $6,500 bankroll and you have reached ruin. If you were originally playing to an acceptable risk or ruin, resize your bets downward proportionally and you'll have the same overall risk. If've you've determined that your initial ROR was indeed way too high, then resize downward to the point that you are playing the $5 tables as I had suggested.

May you take this as a cue to become a student of the game and may you prosper,

Telescopic

I'm not "rubbing it in", you just can't take criticism. You just want someone to tell you "you did it right and just had bad luck". You can find plenty of 2 deck games in Nevada and in Mississippi, and I'm sure there are other places too that have it. It would've cost you some to travel to a playable game, but think of how much NOT travelling cost you. And you weren't "wonging" in the true definition of the word... you were "wonging out" at negative counts... which means you were still playing a LOT of hands with a negative expectation, which forced you to ramp up your bet to an unacceptable level. True wonging is not betting at all until you are sure you have an advantage, at your shoe game a minimum of TC +1.5 or even +2. Like I said, if you haven't run the programs for yourself you cannot appreciate how violent the swings can be in the game and that you can lose a LOT of money before any advantage kicks in. It isn't a "steady income" where you "win X cents a hand" like some of the books describe it.

You weren't playing on one of the Florida boats by any chance were you?

1. Before you started did you have a set bankroll in mind for the game?

2. How many hours total did you play.

3. What was your maximum bet during the whole affair? If you want to get a little more specific, you can state your whole bet ramp.

4. What (exactly) was the game you were playing, including penetration?

With these numbers, we can figure out your ROR, so that you can see the chance you were really taking of losing it all.

Thanks (and once again, very sorry for what has come to pass),

--Mayor

"1. Before you started did you have a set bankroll in mind for the game?"

I can lose about $20 000. I mean, I'll get upset of course if I lose them, but it won't be a life-breaker. Lost $6500 and gave up the game.

"2. How many hours total did you play."

12 days, about 5 hours playing time each - 60 hours or so overall.
On average, 3 other players at the table, never head-on (needed to wong out).

"3. What was your maximum bet during the whole affair? If you want to get a little more specific, you can state your whole bet ramp. "

Started with (TC numbers are truncated):
Leave at TC<-1, $10 at -1=3

After 40 hours downsized to:

Leave at TC<=0 , $25 at TC=1, 2x$25 at TC=2, 2x$50 at TC=3, 2x$75 at TC=4

Kept getting hammered anyway.

"4. What (exactly) was the game you were playing, including penetration? "

8-decks, 8x% penetration depending on the dealer, S17, DAS, NS

Point 3 should say:

Started with (TC numbers are truncated):
Leave at TC<-1, $10 at TC = -1,0 $25 at TC=1, 2x$50 at TC=2, 2x$100 at TC=3

After 40 hours downsized to:

Leave at TC<=0 , $25 at TC=1, 2x$25 at TC=2, 2x$50 at TC=3, 2x$75 at TC=4

dont know bout you,but it happnes to all of us.Try this suggestion.Ken uston developed his three level advanced point count.Take the time to study and learn it.It counts every cards and is accurate as hell.I use it perfectly and im no genius.
I could see the difference imediatley on my double downs and splits.
Knowing more perfeclty what the count is,and how it pertains to a game,can stop those g-damn missed double downs almost completely.The apc can tell you,even when basic {+3 as you said at times}say play it,,actualy,,when NOT to play it.
KNowing when not to chunk the bucks up on a play for me is equaly as important as knowing when to.
plus,,with the apc being so accurate,hes givien us like 150 additional plays that would never even be touched using hi lo or a simpler count.
My winnings have trippled and my confidance will never be low again on the table.Good luck to you.A.M

I've taught many a skier to ski deep stuff on steep slopes over the years. To do it right, you have to have your weight forward over the front of your skis and and attack the fall line... on a steep slope, it's a very vulnerable feeling but necessary to ski like a pro.

When they fall, it's not a pretty sight on a double-diamond run and it often sends them back to the gentler, packed slopes for good.

It's the same with blackjack... when the edge is yours, you have to get the money out there and take every double/split they offer up. I've taken in a lot more losing sessions doing this than I've taken falls in double-diamond powder, but the lesson's the same as it is in the securities markets... if you don't hang-ten, you can't win.

You're one in a long-line of card-players who feel the way you do, my friend.

Good luck,

Spok

I was sorry to read your post above. With just a slight modification to your betting you could perform very adequately with your small bankroll. Instead of wonging in at plus one, wong in at plus 3, and wong out at less than plus 2. A betting ramp of 1*25 at
TC +3, 2 hands of 25 at true of +4, 2 hands of 50 at +6 and 7, 2 hands of 75 at plus 8 and 9, and 2 hands of 100 for those few occasions of a monster count. The 2 hands will keep your No down. In fact, if you stick strictly to the above, full kelly bankroll is less than $4000, less than you have lost so far. Combine this with optimal wonging, (see BJA 2) and you will be back to this great game with confidence, and a suprisingly good hourly return.

Good luck,

Ben

would you go dancing to shake a little booty or go to a movie at that point late in your scenario? The romance of it all?