Thanks; 1 more question and an observation on international play

Thanks for the responses on previous post; they were useful!

Some background: I learned counting and basic strategy using Masque software years ago and would play maybe once or twice a year during the past decade. Now I live overseas where casinos are more accessible.

My one question is: should the last player alter basic strategy if the dealer has no hole card? A positive draw for the player is usually a negative for the dealer; I often draw a 3 or 4 to a 15, only to have the dealer pull a 10 to a 10 for a win (instead of busting with 23 or 24). This sometimes causes yelling at the table (WHY YOU TAKE THAT CARD, STUPID AMERICAN!!)

An observation: casinos outside the USA seem to be very tolerant of card counters. In one casino, a guy stood behind us players and whenever the count went high, he plunked down several big bets (he even called his friends over to share the action; after watching him do this night after night, I asked him about it; he told me that by law, the casino cannot ban citizens from play).

I recently played with a guy who would spread from $5 on 1 box to $125 (each) on 2 boxes depending on the count; he sure didn't seem nervous about camoflage and it was very easy to follow every move up and down the count.

Many counters are "regulars" at casinos and are allowed to just stop betting and sit at the table with their stack of chips if the count turns negative, letting the tourists deal with the negative shoe and jumping back in later. These guys tend to be small-timers using very small spreads, perhaps that's why they are tolerated.

I am also able to find better rules; my current casino, according to the odds generator, operates at a -.08 level. Several of the dealers offer excellent penetration as well, I would guess 5 of 6 decks played (4 of 6 is more the average). Surrender, doubling all hands, resplitting Aces are avaialable if you look. Last night I was allowed to resplit 3s five times and one them all. My favorite is the dealer who cuts the cards and then rotates the deck up to put it in the shoe, giving everyone a good look at the bottom card (every card helps, right??)

Given these factors, I am looking forward to playing more and learning more (and hopefully winning more!) Thanks again.

My one question is: should the last player alter basic strategy if the dealer has no hole card?

No. There is no way to predict what your or the dealer's next card is going to be. The fact that the dealer draws last makes no difference. Don't let the ploppies get you down. Resist the urge to believe their superstitious nonsense.

you should not hit 15 v 10 as the last player! But the fact is you don't know the next card nor do the yellers, and that's why your position at the table doesn't make a difference for playing the hand.

I'm not sure whether you are aware that there are some differences in basic strategy for ENHC-games regardless of your position but it's unclear from your post whether you are playing a European game.

Francis Salmon

...in Europe. You are right, virtually zero heat. If you can find a good game with the freedom to never play a negative expectation hand it's like a dream. Please do tell where this great game you found is. You can email me if you don't want to post on the board. I have tried Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden... all rubbish games.

Yes the ploppies are crazy. Don't ever listen to them!

in reading so many of these other posts, there is usually a mathematical answer (some people would use the "you never know" approach to making insurance bets).

I know that the strategy engine take into account the no-hole-card rule regardless of seat position. But it still nags at me that the last player faces a different situation. The first player has to consider whether the next cards will help or hurt compared to what the dealer is showing. The last player has to consider whether the the odds of hitting and not busting (and then winning)with THE NEXT CARD outweighs the odds that these cards will force the dealer to bust.

This seems to be calculatable (ie, if a 4 is coming, what are the odds that a 10 (or cards totaling 10) will follow, allowing the dealer to win?

Maybe the ploppers have gotten to me.

playing ENHC without surrender. But again, you see "as last player"; does in fact strategy change in this game based on position??

The player at the last seat faces a difficult situation, no argument there. If he makes the 'wrong' call, everyone blames him. Despite the fact that if, say, the first or second person had just followed basic strategy the cards would all be different and the dealer would have busted.

My local casino in London is populated by groups of middle-aged Chinese women who yabber on in their own language about how you are making them lose their money every time you take another card when you already have 16- can make you feel pretty uncomfortable, and if you are in the last spot it's twice as bad! Of course a couple of rounds later they'll hit a blackjack, which they may not have got if one less card was drawn earlier...

But anyway. On your observation:

The last guy has to pick what is the probability of the next card being a small one, and the card after that being a big one. This is out of all the cards that have not been seen and counted. Whether the dealer has dealt himself a card and hidden it from you, or it is still to be dealt, its just one of the hundred cards that you haven't seen and counted. The fact that in London you get the chance to 'take the dealers card' and in Vegas his card has 'already got his name on it' doesn't matter. YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT THE CARD IS and so you can't know if you want it.

Basically, whether you're at the first or last spot, the only difference between him dealing himself a second card in Vegas and not dealing it in London, is that in Vegas you'll know he hasn't got a blackjack (if he had, you'd have already lost and be on the next round). This means that in Vegas if he has a ten and you have a pair of eights, or he has an ace and you have a pair of aces, you can split your cards and put more money out to win more or lose less. But in London you wouldn't do this because there is a whole extra option - he might get a blackjack - which puts the odds too far in his favour. The Strategy Engine tables take care of this for you.

But ignoring any other rule variations you might face outside USA, the 'hole card'/'no hole card' thing should not get you thinking on a whole other level to try and find an edge.

Even if it did, why think about this only on last base - why not consider when you're on first base what the rest of the cards will be for everyone else, and what might be left for the dealer? Answer - there is no value in it.

I've played in a couple of international casinos with the ENC rule, and it does alter basic. IE if they don't take their hole card until every player has completed his hand, and if a natural takes _all_ bets except for naturals, then you have to change a few basic strategy decisions. IE no doubling/splitting if the dealer has an A up (no split 8 with A showing, contrary to BS), no doubling against a 10 with your 11, etc...

How can one calculate what the next card is going to be, short of it being exposed or the player being a very good location tracker? The card the dealer gets is affected by the play of each person at the table, is it not? The decisions made by the third baseman have no more effect on the dealer's card than the decisions made by any other player at the table. If first base takes a hit, it affects the next player, the next player and so on until you get to the dealer. The odds of a ten following a 4 or any other card are based solely on the ratio of remaining tens left in the shoe to non-tens, and nothing else. If you are counting cards, you have some information about those odds and can adjust basic strategy accordingly, but you would make the same adjustment no matter what your seat position happens to be.

Blackjack is not a team sport. You should make your plays based on what is best for you, and not what the ploppies sitting next to you think is best for them. In the vast majority of cases, the correct play is the basic strategy play, even if you are altering strategy based on the count. Such strategy alterations should be count-based and they have nothing to do with your seat position at the table.

My assumption was that the poster had already taken strategy alterations for ENHC into account when he used the term "basic strategy." Basic strategy for ENHC games is still basic strategy, it is just different than the basic used for non-ENHC games.

However, my assumption was different, and might well have been wrong. IE most of the "BS tables" and "BS cards" are for what is apparently known as "american rules"..

I thought this was an interesting point because sometimes after a dealer error you get to choose whether to take a known card.
In such a situation with 15 v 10 even the four should be turned down but a five or a six should be gladly accepted.

Francis Salmon

don't sit at 3rd base! Failing that, pre-empt their criticism by announcing to the table that you'll be making playing decisions you feel are best for your hand not their's.

Actually, accepting the 4 for a total of 19 is mathematicaly superior I believe to either staying on 15, surrendering, or taking the next card hoping for a 5 or 6.

Mike G

It may not be "calculable" but it is absolutely *provable* that basic strategy remains the same at third base. There's a simple proof of this in Smart Casino Gambling by Vancura and Fuchs, but it's been understood for nearly 50 years now. Look at it this way: it's provable that NO strategy that third base can employ, will have ANY effect on the probabability distribution to the dealer, unless third base can force a shuffle before dealer takes his cards. Eg. If the probability of dealer getting a bust card is P(B), it will still be P(B) whether or not third base takes a hit.

ETF

If you don't take the card it will go to the dealer.So instead of having 19 against a ten which is still a slight disadvantage in ENHC you stay on 15 and the dealer will have to hit again on fourteen which gives you an advantage of about 10%.

Francis Salmon

I computed, for 15 v. 14.

Stand Mean = 11.00458 % SD = 0.994

By contract, for 19v10 I got

Stand Mean = -1.58479 % SD = 0.942

In retrospect, it should be �obvious� that giving the dealr the 4 is

better. Holding 19 against 10 is a negative EV hand if the dealer has not cheek for BJ. (This is worth knowing, in case you get a situation where you can call a dead hand before the dealer BJs). OTOH, being up against a 14 is a positive EV situation.

On the other hand, if the next card is a 5, and you keep the 20 vs 10, he numbers are

Stand Mean = 43.61505 % SD = 0.686

Whereas for 15v15, I get

Stand Mean = 17.43729 % SD = 0.985

So the Salmon was right on this too.

They would bet heavely on the 6th spot but minimum on the 7th.Then they would on this last spot sometimes stand on 11 or even hit a twenty depending on whether they thought the next card would hurt the dealer or help him. I have never been able to convince those blokes that this was useless.

Francis Salmon

He may have information you do not. In this case, you are putting both of you in danger by drawing attention to this. The chances are, that he is just a ploppy of course. But even then, you are compromising something which would make the lives of other AP's easier, by allowing them to blend into the play patterns of regular gamblers more easily.